The Note

ByABC News
March 12, 2004, 10:33 AM

W A S H I N G T O N, March 12&#151;<br> -- TODAY SCHEDULE (all times ET)

FUTURES CALENDAR

NEWS SUMMARY

Ralph Reed, as quoted in USA Today: "Every day for the next eight months, John Kerry is going to have to look in the mirror of his record. . . . It is not a record he wants to defend."

A "GOP strategist on Capitol Hill who requested anonymity," as quoted in the Los Angeles Times: "This White House that seemed to be so disciplined, so political, doing such a good job, looks awfully bumbling to me."

David Carney, "a Republican strategist in New Hampshire and White House political director for Bush's father," quoted in the same Los Angles Times story: "People are anxious. . . . There's a lot of fretting going on out there."

One "outside (Bush) campaign advisor, who also requested anonymity, quoted, yes, in that same Los Angeles Times story: ""I worry about Ohio….We've got a real vulnerability on the jobs issue if we can't get that discussion going in a different direction."

At some point, the fact that the Kerry campaign makes its own share of daily undisciplined bumbling decisions (not revealed publicly, MBC, but we know about 'em!) will be part of the daily Chatter of the Chattering Class, and those days can't come soon enough for BC04. (And if you skip the Hastert transcript at the end of today's Note, you are crazy.)

But it is still virtually impossible for even the Washington Times to write about the Kerry campaign a story that would be comparable to the one penned by the Los Angeles Times' Barabak and Hook, whose mustest-read looks at the anxiety over the BC04 campaign as some key Republicans say that "the White House took too long to engage in the race and lacks a clear strategy for addressing voters' economic worries." LINK

While some chalk up the recent polls to the battering that the President took from the Democratic side during the nomination season, "not everyone blames Bush's problems solely on his political foes," the duo Notes, and has a slew of key Republicans to weigh in on what is going right and wrong in the re-election campaign.

And just wait until Bob Dole and Lamar Alexander find out that Tom Rath is a "Bush family loyalist"!!!!!

As Mary Matalin told Harry Smith this morning: "'You're going to love this campaign!'"

But: is it just us, or is the political and Washington press corps already on overload trying to cover

1. the substance of the national security, economic, and health care debates? 2. the tactics, strategies, and personalities of the Bush and Kerry campaigns? 3. the relative merits and veracity of the charges and countercharges?

A great piece of work in the third category -- days in the making -- appears under the headline "President overstates Kerry's record on intelligence budget," in which the Washington Post's Pincus and Milbank do some serious legwork and decide that the President's attack on Kerry's intelligence budget proposal that he started touting this week is "about half right" because it fails to mention that the Republican-led Congress later approved a comparable cut. LINK

Walter/Dana: let us know what Terry Holt says when he gets back to you on that narrative.

As for the big new charges in the presidential race -- that John Kerry's budget numbers don't add up and that his positions on the war against Iraq and the Patriot Act represent stark differences from those of the President -- the Democrats might say "bring . . .them . . . . on," but the heart of the charges are accurate, and the terrain that this leads the fight to is certainly as soft and springy as a Moonbounce for the incumbent.

Much , much more on the ads below.

And don't forget to tune in "This Week" for George Stephanopoulos' extended interview with Secretary of State Colin Powell. Among the Madrid bombing, elections in Russia, and the hunt for Bin Laden (not to mention his National Journal interview gently chastising the press for all the stories about State vs. Everyone!), there will be lots of ground to cover on this anniversary of the war in Iraq. Stay tuned!

President Bush speaks about women's rights from the White House today, and then gets some quality down time at Camp David until he attends the Ford Theater Gala on Sunday night.

Vice President Cheney is in Kentucky today. He will be in Washington, D.C. over the weekend.

Sen. Kerry is in Boston with no public events scheduled. He will be in Illinois and Pennsylvania over the weekend, returning to Washington Sunday night into Monday.

Rep. Kucinich is in Cleveland. He will spend the weekend in Illinois.

Rev. Sharpton is in New York.

Ralph Nader is in Washington, D.C.

ABC News Vote 2004: Bush-Cheney re-elect: ads, ads, ads, ads, ads:

Pointing to a "window of opportunity" in the election cycle, the Bush-Cheney '04 campaign rolled out its first Kerry-mentioning ad yesterday, "100 Days," to begin airing today in 18 battleground states and on cable networks.

The campaign will continue to run "Safer, Stronger," the ad that contained the images of Ground Zero and the firefighters and will rotate it with the second phase of ads.

BC04 chief strategist Matt Dowd said that the ad, which sparked some controversy last week over the use of the 9/11 images, was getting a "tremendous amount of positive feedback" and that the campaign was happy with the debate it had started.

So is it too early to go negative, er, um, go contrast?

Historically, this is early for an ad that focuses on a challenger. In 1996, President Clinton's re-election campaign waited until mid-May to take on Bob Dole directly (although the DNC did run those DoleGingrich spots in '95 . . .), and in 1992, the ads did not begin until late summer.

Campaign officials said yesterday that they feel very confident about the ads and that they are the right message at the right time.

The national political reporters all highlight the shift in tone for the President's re-election campaign, focusing on the contrast ad over the other 30-second spot that is positive. The ads have gotten significant free media from the cable networks and network news shows, and the staff out in Courthouse will be happy to Note that the tag line of "100 Days," is getting the most love: "John Kerry: Wrong on taxes. Wrong on defense."

BC04 senior advisor Mary Matalin made the rounds on the morning news shows and told ABC News' Charlie Gibson on "Good Morning America" that the BC04 campaign was not taking on the opponent but rather Kerry's issues. "We're taking on his issues of raising taxes and repealing the Patriot Act and being against the war on terror. All issues that he basically voted on. Senator Kerry is the one that's been taking on President Bush by name, calling him a liar, crook, and it's time to discuss the issues."

And we're not sure what exactly to make of it, but Note that in the first round of BC04 ads, one ad ("Lead") featured the following tag line at the end of the ad: "I'm President Bush and I approve this message."

On the other three ads, it read "I'm George W. Bush and I approve this message," including even the Spanish language version (Soy George W. Bush y aprobé este mensaje)!

In this second round of ads, the campaign has stuck with "I'm George W. Bush…" but do Note the last screen of the ads, which reads "Approved by President Bush and paid for by Bush-Cheney '04 Inc."

Howie Kurtz wraps the new Bush-Cheney ads, alleging that the Kerry campaign will go on the air today with their response and that "these opening salvos in what promises to be a long and vituperative air war" coincided with a "coordinated assault" by Republican lawmakers on Kerry's recent off-the-cuff remarks. LINK

It remains to be seen if the Kerry campaign will actually produce this ad, buy time for it, pay for the time, and come up with something beyond a news-cycle-placement-holding video press release. As they say on NBC News' Today program: only time will tell.

The Chicago Tribune's Jeff Zeleny seems to think that the new Bush/Cheney '04 ads are likely to go unanswered, at least by the Kerry campaign. Matt Dowd said, "Right now, there's a window of opportunity where the public is paying very close attention, and they expect to hear both sides." Check out the Zogby comment on the visuals on terrorism. LINK

The New York Times' Rutenberg and Sanger write that the new Bush ads "are the latest example of the White House's willingness to take on Mr. Kerry directly, abandoning the campaign strategy of his father and other presidents who tried to stay above the political fray." LINK

Nick Anderson of the Los Angeles Times Notes that "the anti-Kerry ad may represent the opening of a new, rough phase of the campaign, with nearly eight months until the election," and that the ad marked "the first time an incumbent president was required to include a personal statement of approval in a commercial used to criticize an opponent."LINK

Under the headline "Liars, wimps & crooks: Welcome to the ad war," the New York Daily News' DeFrank reports that the first negative ad from the Bush-Cheney '04 campaign launches on Kerry as "a wimp on defense, a tool of the United Nations and itching to raise taxes." LINK

USA Today's Judy Keen writes, "It is rare for an incumbent president to take on his challenger this early. But Bush political advisers said they want to draw contrasts while voters are tuned in to the race." LINK

Dallas Morning News' Hillman Notes the BC04 campaign's "lengthy statement buttressing the ads" and also the Kerry campaign's "own lengthy rebuttal statement," that said President Bush was suffering a "'credibility problem.'"LINK