The Note
W A S H I N G T O N, March 9—<br> -- TODAY SCHEDULE (all times ET):
—7:00 am: Polls open in Florida and Louisiana—8:00 am: Polls open in Mississippi and Texas—8:00 am: Ron Klain, Steve Elmendorf, Jon Haber, Craig Smith and Jim Margolis attend a debate sponsored by Fleishman and Hillard about the presidential primary season at the Mayflower Hotel, Washington, D.C. —9:00 am: Sen. John Kerry makes a local campaign stop, Tampa, Fla. —9:00 am: Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist holds at news conference on obesity at the Capitol, Washington, D.C. —9:00 am: Council on Foreign Relations-sponsored independent task force "Iraq: The Day After" holds a press conference on its third report assessing progress in Iraq, Washington, D.C. —9:00 am: House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi addresses the Executive Council of the AFL-CIO to kick off the federation's winter executive council meeting, Bal Harbor, Fla. —9:20 am: Sen. Hillary Clinton delivers remarks at the American Legion Conference at the Hyatt Regency Hotel, Washington, D.C. —9:30 am: CIA Director George Tenet testifies in a hearing on threats to National Security before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Washington, D.C. —9:30 am: Treasury Secretary John Snow delivers a speech to America's Community Bankers' Annual Government Affairs Conference, Washington, D.C. —9:30 am: The Senate convenes for legislative business—10:00 am: The National Association of State Treasurers hosts a conference to the fiscal health of the states, Washington, D.C. —10:00 am: The Senate Appropriations Committee, Homeland Security Subcommittee holds a hearing on FY2005 appropriations for border and transportation security, Washington, D.C. —10:00 am: The Senate Finance Committee holds a hearing on international trade issues, Washington, D.C. —10:00 am: Washington-area sniper John Allen Muhammad faces sentencing, Manassas, Va. —10:25 am: President Bush speaks at the Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Awards Ceremony at the Marriott, Arlington, Va. —11:00 am: Laura Bush tours the Capital Breast Care Center, Washington, D.C. —11:25 am: Rep. Tom DeLay hosts a pen and pad briefing, Washington, D.C. —12:30 pm: The House of Representatives convenes for legislative business—12:30 pm: Sen. Frist attends a Republican Senate policy luncheon at the Capitol, Washington, D.C. —12:30 pm: AFL-CIO leaders, including President John Sweeney, hold a press conference to mark the beginning of the federation's winter meeting, Bal Harbor, Fla. —1:00 pm: Politics Live on ABC News Live and AOL—2:00 pm: The American Civil Liberties Union holds a news conference to discuss the government's post-9/11 policies, Washington, D.C. —2:45 pm: Sen. Kerry and Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D-Ill.) host a dialogue with seniors on drug re-importation at the Levy Center, Evanston, Ill. —6:00 pm: Sen. Frist attends a Senators and Spouses dinner at the National Archives, Washington, D.C. —7:00 pm: Polls close in Florida—8:00 pm: Polls close in Mississippi—8:00 pm: Sen. Kerry attends an election night party at the Great Hall at Chicago Union Station, Chicago, Ill. —9:00 pm: Polls close in Texas and Louisiana—11:00 pm: RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie appears on the Daily Show with John Stewart
NEWS SUMMARY
Today voters cast their ballots in primaries in Florida, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas. Polls close in Florida and Mississippi by 8:00 pm ET and in Louisiana and Texas by 9:00 pm ET.
For all the bad news that President Bush has had over the last few months -- the politically weakest of his presidency -- one development is worst of all, as it bears particularly heavily on his chances of re-election.
We aren't talking about the economic report trifecta (outsourcing = good, burger-flipping = manufacturing, expected jobs = many many); the David Kay report; the Halliburton shenanigans; the Mars-on-steroids State of the Union flop; the irrational cut-spending-Mr.-President-but-sign-the-highway-bill congressional wing of the Republican Party; or the 9/11 ad flap.
No, what's really enhanced the prospects of 43 repeating the fate of 41 is the consensus view among the Gang of 500 that George Walker Bush can lose this election.
From the men's room in the editorial offices of the Weekly Standard, to the brains of the chiefs of staff to incumbent Republican governors, to some surprising quarters of the leadership on Capitol Hill, to even (dare we say it) some member of the President's own reelection team -- not to mention -- but here we do -- many of the journalists whose "abandonment" of his father sticks in the presidential craw -- the Gang's all here, united in the belief that while George Bush will probably win, he just might lose.
And that is the psychological and practical opening John Kerry needed in what feels, to the Chattering Class, like it's going to be the longest general election in forever.
And yesterday's direct engagement by Bush of Kerry -- which the Washington Post's Dana Milbank brilliantly Notes is unusually early for an incumbent ("by far the earliest time an incumbent president has invoked the name of his opponent)" LINK -- just might suggest that Mr. Bush himself believes that he COULD lose.
With John Kerry -- like a blind squirrel -- feeling his way toward it'stheeconomystupidchangeversusmoreofthesameanddon'tforgethealthcare, the Bush-Cheney-Matalin campaign is sounding a lot like the Bush-Quayle-Matalin campaign.
Sure, a lot has changed between 1992 and 2004 -- for instance none of these things even existed in our daily lives back when Bob Dornan, Guy Vander Jagt, Phil Gramm, and Mary Matalin were major Bush re-elect campaign surrogates:
The Note, TiVo, "The Real World," CGI, Blackberries, IM (and "btw" "gok" "lol" "imho"), the Getty Museum, Planet Hollywood, Oprah's Book Club, "Chicken Soup for the Soul," Cargo pants, Tae-bo, Beanie Babies, Tickle-me Elmo, day trading, SUVs, Starbucks, Macarena, "The Matrix," "Austin Powers," Tiger Woods, Britney Spears, Friendster, DV, Jet Blue, iPod, hybrid cars, the Emerald Aisle, MP3s, Napster, Harry Potter, TV crawls, or eBay.
And/but quick, are these quotes Bush the Elder on Clinton or Bush the Junior on Kerry?
"And my argument with him is you cannot be on all sides of every issue. You cannot flip-flop. You cannot turn the White House into the waffle house."
"We cannot put him in the White House. He's like a struggling Little League manager wanting to go to the Atlanta Braves."
"When you are president you cannot try to please everyone."
"Mr. and Mrs. America, when you hear him say we're going to tax only the rich, watch your wallet because his figures don't add up."
"He said -- here's what he said at the time of the war. He said, . . . 'I agreed with the minority, but I guess I would have voted with the majority.' What kind of decisive commander in chief would that be?"
The Democrat's health care plan "would slap at least a 7% payroll tax on middle-income Americans . . . My plan would provide tax relief to Americans, to help them pay for their own health care." If my opponent wins, Bush continued, "within a year the government will run health care in this country. Our health care system will combine the efficiency of the House post office with the compassion of the KGB."
(OK, some anachronisms in that last one might give the answer away. Go ask your interns if they know what either the KGB or the House post office are . . .)
Without much competition to speak of, John Kerry has spent the last four days campaigning in the four states holding primaries today.
And he picked up 3 delegates Monday in the American Samoa caucus, where he took 85 percent of the vote to Rep. Dennis Kucinich's 15 percent. However, even if the Massachusetts Senator wins all 465 delegates up for grabs Tuesday he would still end the day just shy of formally clinching the Democratic nomination for president according to the ABC News delegate estimate. (And just in case you are wondering, a Blagojevich endorsement won't put him over the top either.) LINK
Delegates so far (pledged delegates and superdelegates combined)*:Kerry 1,537 (roughly 71% of the total delegates needed to secure the nomination)Edwards 506Sharpton 23Kucinich 23
Delegates needed to win the nomination: 2,162
Delegates at stake today (March 9): 465
*The totals in the "delegates so far" estimate include both pledged delegates who are allocated according to their home state's primary and caucus results as well as "unpledged" delegates, known as "superdelegates," made up of state party leaders and activists, Democratic governors, members of congress, former presidents, vice presidents, and national party chairmen.
President Bush is Arlington, Va. to speak at the Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Awards Ceremony.
First Lady Laura Bush will visit the Capital Breast Care Center and its soon-to-be-opened mammography suite in Washington, D.C.
Sen. Kerry is in Florida this morning and Illinois this afternoon and evening.
Rep. Kucinich is in a Cleveland area hospital being treated for gastroenteritis.
Rev. Sharpton is in New York.
Ralph Nader is in Washington, D.C.
Many of you have asked us where we first heard the story of the famous orange we shared with you last Friday.
The basic architecture and moral of the tale came from one Dana Carvey, explaining to an interviewer why viewers value celebrity and exposure, even if there's nothing substantive behind the curtain. (The good-natured ribbing of Jeff Zucker was entirely our invention.)
Our failure to cite Carvey was based on our usual attempt to get someone to sue us for the sake of generating publicity.
Florida Presidential PrimaryPolls Open: 7:00 am ETPolls Close: 8:00 pm ET**95 percent of voting age population lives in portions of the state where polls close by 7:00 pm ET.
There is probably little need to remind you of the role Florida played in 2000.
Suffice to say -- Gore: 48.9% / Bush: 48.9%, with 537 votes separating the two. Karl Rove has already declared Florida the "ground zero" of the 2004 presidential campaign, and the Sunshine State will once again be a pivotal battleground state with its 27 electoral votes up for grabs in November.
