The Note
W A S H I N G T O N, March 5—<br> -- TODAY SCHEDULE (all times ET):
—8:30 am: The Labor Department issues the Employment Situation for February report—9:00 am: CIA Director George Tenet speaks to the House Intelligence Committee, Washington, D.C.—10:00 am: Sens. Tom Daschle, Byron Dorgan, Dianne Feinstein and Jack Reed participate in a forum on the outsourcing of jobs, Washington, D.C.—10:00 am: Moveon.org holds a news conference in response to the Bush-Cheney '04's ad campaign at the Sheraton, New York, N.Y.—10:00 am: Laura Bush speaks at the Fort Hood Women's Conference, Fort Hood, Texas—10:00 am: The United Nations Security Council holds closed consultations on Haiti—10:30 am: The New Democratic Network speaks to the press about its ad campaign, Washington, D.C.—10:30 am: Rep. Dennis Kucinich has brunch at Haveli's Restaurant, Irving, Texas—12:00 pm: Sen. Ted Kennedy speaks about intelligence gathering and the war in Iraq at the Council on Foreign Relations, Washington, D.C.—12:00 pm: Sens. Daschle, Stabenow and Dorgan hold a rally against the outsourcing of jobs, Washington, D.C.—1:00 pm: Politics Live on ABC News Live and AOL—1:00 pm: Rep. Kucinich attends a reception at the Dallas Peace Center, Dallas, Texas—1:30 pm: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee speaks to the press about Senate 2004 campaigns, Washington, D.C.—2:30 pm: Sen. John Kerry attends a rally with Sens. John Breaux and Mary Landrieu and Gov. Kathleen Blancoat at Woldenberg Park, New Orleans, La.—2:45 pm: Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge and Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle speak to the press, Honolulu, Hawaii—6:00 pm: President and Mrs. Bush welcome Mexican President Vicente Fox and Mrs. Fox to the Bush Ranch, Crawford, Texas—7:00 pm: Rep. Kucinich attends a rally at Milam Park, San Antonio, Texas—8:00 pm: President Bush and Mrs. Bush have dinner with President and Mrs. Fox, Crawford, Texas—8:00 pm: Gen. Wesley Clark and Gov. Kathleen Sebelius speak to the press on behalf of Sen. Kerry at the Ramada, Topeka, Kan.—8:00 pm: Former New York Times reporter Jayson Blair appears on NBC's "Dateline"—9:00 pm: Gen. Clark attends a Kansas Democratic Party Ad Astra Dinner on behalf of Sen. Kerry at the Ramada, Topeka, Kan.—9:00 pm: Rep. Kucinich attends a dinner in his honor at the Knights of Columbus Hall, San Antonio, Texas
NEWS SUMMARY
As we head into what will most probably be a relatively quiet, mad-less March political weekend, chew on this: which leading U.S. Senate candidate was once married to Seven of Nine from Star Trek: Voyager?
Now to make an errant wormhole transition several hundred years into the present (less arresting than Jeri Ryan, less annoying than Neelix, with a better flair for the dramatic than Harry Kim) … .
The Bush-Cheney-McKinnon TV ads make their Fox Sports debuts this weekend, and it's gotten us to wondering whether the media's predilection for controversy in the moment ignores the dynamic effect of its own coverage. Dynamic, and not necessarily zero-sum for either side.
Notice the way the coverage frames the debate:
The Washington Post's Paul Fahri writes that the ads "generated criticism and controversy yesterday." LINK
In The New York Times, Stevenson and Rutenberg say "aides were scrambling to counter criticism" LINK
Consider, for a moment, the story of an orange.
It's a regular old orange.
One day, Jeff Zucker at NBC decides to make a television show out of the orange. It runs on Thursday night, in Friends' time slot. The theme music is snazzy.
For 22 minutes, viewers get to watch the orange, doing nothing, just sitting there.
The next day, to hype the program, (called "Orange You Glad") the NBC PR folks rope off a small section of Times Square and put the orange on a pedestal in the center. Thousands of people stop by and gawk. "IT'S THE ORANGE," they say. "The ORANGE that was on television last night!!!"
The moral of this strange little tale: it doesn't matter that the orange is a stupid old orange. It was on television, people saw it, and now they're interested in it. Context be damned.
The repetition of the Bush ad and the 9/11 imagery, even amid the throes of a "controversy," are bound to increase the association that viewers make between President Bush and his 9/11 leadership. So it doesn't seem necessarily obvious to us that they are on the defensive, here, or are particularly worried about seeming crass.
No one for a moment doubts the strong feelings expressed by victims' families, and we're not suggesting that criticism of the ads aren't warranted. (Perhaps they are, perhaps they're not). It's just that the mere fact of doing the story increases the odds that the goal of the ads will be fulfilled. (Well, at least half the goal — the question then becomes — will some key swingish people think that there has been a loss of national unity since then?) Especially this early in the season, when message-formation is perhaps the most potent weapon in the political arsenal.
What's Bush's re-election message? Easy: Steady leadership in times of change.
What's Kerry's election message? Ah … .Well, it used to be … Howard Dean by-way-of Joe Lieberman … . I'm strong where Bush is strong and strong where he's weak.
But today?
The Los Angeles Times' Ron Brownstein: "Amid a Democratic presidential race that has turned less on issues than perceptions of the candidates' personal qualities and electability, the Massachusetts senator stands as the presumptive nominee with many unsure whether he intends to steer the party to the left or back toward the centrist themes associated with Bill Clinton — or impose no distinctive direction at all." LINK
Says the New York Times ' Rutenberg and Stevenson: "Mr. Bush's aides said that they would not pull the commercials and that the battle over them could even work to their advantage by focusing new attention on what they said was the president's forceful response to the attacks and the continued threat from terrorists. They said the controversy had been expected and was serving their aim of changing the debate from Democratic turf like health care and jobs to Mr. Bush's strongest suit, national security." LINK
Indeed, with numbers like these … ABC News' Schindelheim says the Labor Department reports that the economy added just 21,000 new jobs for the month, well below expectations. "The Labor Department revised downward the January number to +97,000 and the December number to +8,000. That's just 364,000 new jobs in the past six months. The number of unemployed was 8.2 million in February, and the unemployment rate held at 5.6%. Both measures are below their recent highs of June 2003."
USA Today's Walter Shapiro takes a look at the two schools of campaign ads: those inspired by the Anything Goes type of politics and those by the Rebecca of Sunnybrook Farms kind of politics. He reminds us that these controversial Bush campaign ads are "pretty mild fare" compared with the attack ads coming to a television near you this cycle. LINK
Memo to CAP/ACT/AV/Media Fund folks: Yes, you're on track to be wheels-up shortly, but how bad is the uncertainty over the FEC hurting your fundraising? Ooh, ooh. Better question: will the rush to collect dollars for John Kerry crowd out your solicitations?
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