The Note
W A S H I N G T O N, Mar. 3—<br> -- TODAY SCHEDULE AS OF 9:00 am (all times ET):
—8:30 am: C-Change co-chairs former President George Bush and Sen. Dianne Feinstein announce a partnership to "dramatically reduce cancer cases and deaths by the year 2010," Washington, D.C.—8:45 am: House Speaker Dennis Hastert receives the Boy Scouts annual report to Congress at the Capitol, Washington, D.C.—8:45 am: Sen. Hillary Clinton speaks on proposed changes in U.S. manufacturing, research, tax and trade policy to the Center for American Progress at the Mayflower Hotel, Washington, D.C.—9:00 am: Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist and African American and Hispanic leaders of the Alliance of Marriage speak to the press, Washington, D.C.—9:00 am: Republican House Leaders speak to the press about Sen. John Kerry outside RNC headquarters, Washington, D.C.—10:00 am: The House of Representatives convenes for legislative business—10:00 am: The Supreme Court meets to hear arguments—11:30 am: Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle speaks to the press about tax breaks for U.S. exporters, Washington, D.C.—12:00 pm: Sen. Dianne Feinstein and other supporters of the assault weapons ban speak to the press, Washington, D.C.—12:15 pm: Sen. John Kerry receives the endorsement of Sen. Bob Graham at the Plaza Theatre, Orlando, Fla.—12:40 pm: Rep. Dennis Kucinich attends a presentation at Royalty Theater, Clearwater, Fla.—1:00 pm: House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi hosts a reception honoring Mary McGrory, Washington, D.C.—1:00 pm: Politics Live on ABC NEWS LIVE and AOL—2:00 pm: Federal Reserve Board releases the Beige Book—2:30 pm: Rep. Kucinich attends a presentation at St. Petersburg College, St. Petersburg, Fla.—2:45 pm: Sen. Clinton holds a conference call on the effort to preserve overtime pay for military veterans—3:30 pm: Rep. Kucinich meets with community religious leaders at the Word of Life Fellowship, St. Petersburg, Fla.—4:00 pm: Sen. John Edwards announces that he is dropping out of the presidential race at Broughton High School, Raleigh, N.C.—4:30 am: Treasury Secretary John Snow delivers the 24th Annual Manuel Cohen Memorial Lecture at George Washington law school, Washington, D.C.—5:00 pm: Rep. Kucinich walks to his campaign office, St. Petersburg, Fla.—5:00 pm: President Bush speaks at the 11th Regional White House Conference on Faith-Based and Community Initiatives at the Los Angeles Convention Center, Los Angeles, Calif.—5:00 pm: Sens. Frist and Daschle co-host the Bread for the World reception, Washington, D.C.—5:45 pm: House Speaker Hastert, former New Jersey Gov. Thomas Kean and former Rep. Lee Hamilton speak about the 9/11 Commission, Washington, D.C.—7:00 pm: Rep. Kucinich attends a forum at the University of South Florida, Tampa, Fla.—8:00 pm: Rep. Kucinich attends a reception for student leaders at the University of South Florida, Tampa, Fla.—8:30 pm: Rep. Kucinich attends a reception for the African Studies Program at the University of South Florida, Tampa, Fla.—8:35 pm: President Bush attends a Bush-Cheney 2004 fundraiser at the Shrine Auditorium, Los Angeles, Calif.—9:10 pm: Rep. Kucinich attends a fundraiser and rally at the Skippers Smokehouse, Tampa, Fla.—9:15 pm: Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger meets with President Bush at a private reception, Los Angeles, Calif.—10:00 pm: President Bush speaks at the Republican National Committee Victory 2004 Dinner, Los Angeles, Calif.
NEWS SUMMARY
Get ready, America.
The Republican and Democratic Parties proudly present — Bush versus Kerry!!!!
Much has been written and said about the president's political strengths and weaknesses, but here's where we see Senator Kerry at this writing.
Kerry advantages:
1. Democratic Party (relatively) united and determined to beat Bush
2. emerges with no significant character questions/problems to fix (think Gore/lying liberal '00 and Clinton/womanizer/draft dodger '92)
3. strong favorable/unfavorable ratings
4. grew stronger through nomination process, while Bush grew weaker (as if Bush had the nomination challenge and Kerry didn't)
5. can raise unlimited money because he didn't accept the federal campaign matching funds
6. didn't get forced (much) to the left by the nomination process
7. the overlay of the job loss and electoral college battleground maps
8. no major conflicts with liberals, labor, African-Americans, or the congressional wing of the party
9. newly elected, politically savvy governors in many of the battleground states
10. a distinguished war record running against two men who didn't see combat
Kerry disadvantages:
1. will have to spend a lot of time raising money in the spring
2. the president's unprecedented campaign cash — more than $100 million in the bank and counting
3. despite his momentum, has yet to put any Bush "red states" play, leaving the president with a big Electoral College base
4. a long record of votes in Congress to pick over, with lots of liberal votes and statements (all catalogued already by BCRNC)
5. still struggles to regularly perform effectively on the stump — especially in driving a positive economic message
6. Bush in-roads with Hispanics and Jews
7. Bush overwhelming support among men
8. no deep personal connection with the American people — with his base or the broader electorate
9. the never-gonna-fully-go-away "likeability" questions
10. easy nomination means he and his team haven't been forced to be disciplined and consistent in message and organization
Two more things about Kerry:
ABC News has learned that the person considered the leading and most likely candidate to head the Kerry Veep selection process is Democratic wise man Jim Johnson.
Johnson is the vice chairman of Perseus, L.L.C., a merchant banking and private equity firm, and chairman of both Brookings' board of trustees and the John F. Kennedy Center.
He was Vice President Walter Mondale's executive assistant from 1977 until 1981, when he founded Public Strategies, which advised corporations on "strategic issues," to say the least.
He joined Lehman Brothers as a managing director in the mid 1980s and in 1991 became the chairman and CEO (and "$7 million man") of Fannie Mae. [Mickey Kaus once called him "Washington's equivalent of Michael Eisner."] He lives with his wife and son in Washington, D.C.
And various Democratic sources tell us that the Kerry high command, including campaign manager Mary Beth Cahill, have some pretty specific ideas about the role the Democratic National Committee should be playing — and let's just say that we might see some visible and not-so-visible DNC players with diminished roles in the days and weeks ahead. (Over to you, Jim VandeHei — what with Rick Berke out of the writing game.)
ABC News' Bush-Cheney campaign reporter Karen Travers, who always hangs out with the cool kids, reports that the place to be at 9:30 am ET today is actually across the Potomac River and straight up Wilson Boulevard to the BC04 campaign headquarters, where the campaign leadership and media team will unveil the first ads of the general election. The BC04 ads in airable form will be made available to the media at 1:00 pm ET today.
Campaign manger Ken Mehlman, chief strategist Matt Dowd, and media guru Mark McKinnon will brief reporters.
The campaign plans to spend over $4.5 million on this first round of ads which will feature at two English language ads (one 60-second spot and two 30-second spots) and one 30-second Spanish language ad (that will be the Spanish version of one of the English spots), with the potential for more.
The Bush team has done its usual remarkable job of keeping things that can be kept secret a secret. Some details of the ad buy can't be close hold, because, well, the cable systems and stations talk, but no one has gotten a whiff of what is in the (term of art alert!) creative.
We liked the shot of the little running girl in the first BC04 Web video, and we hope she makes a return cameo in these.
Kerry campaign spokesgal Stephanie Cutter (who made her own triumphal return to The Hill yesterday) gave The Note this exclusive pre-buttal, which, to be clear, was given before she was able to see the ads or even read scripts:
"Here's the bottom line: George Bush can't rewrite history with $150 million. George Bush is going to spend more on this election than any candidate in the nation's history to help whitewash over all his broken promises on jobs, health care, education and national security. The real story here is what's NOT in the new Bush ads, because this president acts as though the last three and a half years never happened."
John Kerry's incredibly impressive Super Tuesday performance not only added an additional nine nomination contest victories to his total (27 of 30 for you counting at home) but also allowed him to pick up the great majority of delegates at stake on this delegate-rich day.
We have been able to allocate 72 percent of the delegates at stake yesterday as of this writing.
As you know, the delegate estimate is just that — an estimate.
Delegates so far (pledged delegates and superdelegates combined)*:
Kerry 1292 (roughly 60% of the total delegates needed to secure the nomination)
Edwards 425
