The Note
W A S H I N G T O N, Feb. 6—<br> -- TODAY SCHEDULE AS OF 9:00 am (all times ET):
—8:30 am: The Labor Department releases January employment figures—8:35 am: Sen. Kerry attends a prayer breakfast with Detroit ministers at the Second Ebenezer Baptist Church, Detroit, Mich. —9:00 am: Sen. Edwards speaks about jobs at the Virginia Tech University Campus, Blacksburg, Va. —9:00 am: Gen. Clark has breakfast at Swett's Restaurant, Nashville, Tenn. —10:00 am: Off-camera press gaggle by White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan—10:00 am: Sen. Kerry receives the endorsement of Rep. Richard Gephardt at DeCarlo's Banquet and Convention Center, Warren, Mich. —11:30 am: Sen. Edwards speaks about jobs at George Wyth High School, Wythenille, Va. —12:00 pm: Gen. Clark speaks with students at Tennessee Technological University, Cookeville, Tenn. —12:00 pm: On-camera press briefing by Press Secretary McClellan—12:15 pm: Rep. Kucinich attends a rally at People's Church, Kalamazoo, Mich. —1:45 pm: Sen. Kerry takes a tour of the M-Tec Regional Technological Center, Flint, Mich. —2:00 pm: Sen. Edwards speaks about jobs at the YWCA, Bristol, Tenn. —2:25 pm: President Bush visits and tours the National Targeting Center, Reston, Va. —2:30 pm: Rep. Kucinich attends a rally at Muskegon Community College, Muskegon, Mich. —2:30 pm: Sen. Kerry attends a rally with Genesee County Democrats at the M-Tec Workshop Hanger, Flint, Mich. —3:45 pm: Rep. Kucinich attends a rally at UAW local 137 Hall, Greenville, Mich. —4:00 pm: Gen. Clark holds a roundtable with Knoxville community leaders and clergy, Knoxville, Tenn. —4:00 pm: Gov. Dean holds a roundtable with faculty and students, Lakeshore Technical College, Cleveland, Wis. —5:30 pm: Rep. Kucinich attends a rally at Flint Township Senior Center, Flint, Mich. —6:30 pm: Gen. Clark has dinner with Tennessee and Virginia voters at the State Line Bar and Grill, Bristol, Tenn. —7:00 pm: Sen. Edwards speaks about jobs at the Riverside Tavern, Knoxville, Tenn. —7:00 pm: Rep. Kucinich attends a rally at the Monument of Faith Baptist Church, Pontiac, Mich. —8:15 pm: Rep. Kucinich attends a rally at the Detroit Mercy University, Detroit, Mich. —7:00 pm: Rev. Sharpton attends the tenth annual Sit-In Movement banquet, Greensboro, N.C. —7:00 pm: Gov. Pataki delivers the keynote address at the Vermont GOP Lincoln Day Dinner, Killington Grand Resort & Hotel, Kilington, Vt. —7:30 pm: Sen. Kerry attends a rally with Davidson County Democrats, Nashville, Tenn.
NEWS SUMMARY
In re the Democratic presidential nomination battle, here's how the Gang of 500 sees the upcoming weekend:
(Remember: the Gang is never in doubt, but not always correct…)
-- John Kerry gets mega Michigan Friday coverage on the strength of Gephardt and Dingell endorsements, as a gateway to major union support in the coming days;
-- Kerry wins big in three caucus states -- Michigan, Washington, and Maine -- that just happen to be general election battlegrounds, getting more mega coverage;
-- Kerry's most professional advance and press advance team allow him to dominate the Old Dominion's J-J dinner Saturday night, as the results roll in;
-- Ladies' Home Journal, O The Oprah Magazine, Harper's Bazaar, and Good Housekeeping try to figure out how to get timely Mary Beth Cahill profiles written, given their wretched, months-long lead times;
-- Teen, CosmoGirl, Seventeen, and YM try to figure out how to get timely Stephanie Cutter profiles written, given their wretched, months-long lead times;
-- Every political reporter in America is asked to match today's must-read Washington Post story about how Democrats are feeling revitalized -- and Republicans nervous -- over the state of presidential political play. Reportorial calls to Ray LaHood, Scott Reed, Peter King, Gary Bauer, John McCain, and Republican Party state chairs from squishy Blue states will go out in force.
There is nothing in the world quite as pleasurable as a Harris-Allen Washington Post byline conjoining the best of reporting from the Democratic and Republican worlds.
Today, the two bundle the dynamic energies of the past few weeks into a static conclusion, the opposite, we'd Note, of what the Wall Street Journal concluded yesterday: all this hacking at President Bush and all the stirred up blood pressure of Democrats has actually moved the party into a better position to take on Mr. Bush.
And the White House isn't sure what's going on -- whether this is the normal course of events, whether SOTU went poorly, whether large-scale but submerged questions about Mr. Bush's credibility are now part of the national conversation, whether the liberal media is perpetuating its own desires about a strong Democratic nominee. But check out the blind quotes.
And this:
"As the Democratic presidential race enters its closing phase, the party finds itself facing prospects for the fall election that are vastly improved from just two months ago. At the same time, for reasons that are partly related and partly coincidence, President Bush is weaker than his strategists expected, spreading alarm in the White House and Republican circles, GOP sources said." LINK
Why?
--lackluster SOTU (Mars and steroids don't seem to be pumping people up…);
--conservative grumbling about spending priorities;
--questions about his National Guard service;
--David Kay;
--an energized Democratic Party.
And then, if it's Sunday:
-- "When did you realize that your Administration's cost estimates for the Medicare prescription drug law were wildly underestimated, and how did you react to that news?"
-- "How will you ensure that voters enter the polls with no unanswered questions about prewar intelligence?"
-- "David Kay offered this blunt assessment: 'We were all wrong.' Why were we all wrong?"
-- "Let me show you an exchange you had with Diane Sawyer in an interview she conducted with you in December, and then I would like you to react."
DIANE SAWYER: But stated as a hard fact, that there were weapons of mass destruction as opposed to the possibility that he could move to acquire those weapons still --
PRESIDENT BUSH: So what's the difference?
DIANE SAWYER: Well --
PRESIDENT BUSH: The possibility that he could acquire weapons. If he were to acquire weapons, he would be the danger. That's, that's what I'm trying to explain to you. A gathering threat, after 9/11, is a threat that needed to be de - dealt with, and it was done after 12 long years of the world saying the man's a danger. And so we got rid of him and there's no doubt the world is a safer, freer place as a result of Saddam being gone.
-- "How many American troops will be in Iraq on election day in November? And why did you describe this question from Elisabeth Bumiller of the New York Times as a 'trick' question: 'Can you promise a year from now that you will have reduced the number of troops in Iraq?'"?
-- "And why did you describe this question from Stretch as a 'trick' question: 'Can you rule out the possibility of further tax cut proposals next year?'?"
-- "Besides tax cuts, what is the Bush plan for restoring manufacturing jobs to states such as Michigan?"
-- "At the end of your term, how many Americans will lack health insurance, and how does that compared to the number who lacked health insurance when you took office?"
-- "Tell us in as much detail as you recall how you spent your weekends in 1972 and 1973."
-- "Do you know who the Valerie Plame leakers are? Have you thought much about it? Will you keep your word to hold accountable those responsible for the leak, no matter how high their post?"
-- "What is the difference between your view of civil unions for same-sex couples and the views of Howard Dean and John Kerry?"
-- "Michael Powell, your chairman of the Federal Communications Commission, has announced there will be an investigation into the Super Bowl halftime show. You have said you didn't see the show -- didn't see the nudity or the other parts of the performance that raised concerns-- but you heard about what happened. Should this be a priority for the FCC? And what kind of punishment do you think would be appropriate for CBS?"
-- "A strong majority of Americans believe the federal deficit is a 'very serious' or 'somewhat serious' problem. And members of your own party are increasingly angry about your budget spending proposals and the historic deficits your Administration is posting. Economists say that your often-repeated claim to cut the deficit in half is, in fact, impossible. How do you answer those critics?"
Suggested Bush responses (pretty much work for any of the questions above): LINK
"You invited me to come here and talk about -- I thought -- the whole record."
"Everybody's admitted mistakes. I've admitted mistakes. And you want to dwell on them, and I want to talk about the values we believe in and experience and the integrity that goes with all of this, and what's -- I'm going to do about education, and you're...there's nothing new here. I thought this was a news program. What is new?"
"I have respect for you, but I don't have respect for what you're doing here today."
"Well, I want to be judged on the whole record, and you're not giving an opportunity."
"I don't think it's fair to judge my whole career by a rehash on Iraq. How would you like it if I judged your career by those times you talked obsessively about the Bills on the set in New York?"
Anyway, about that Democratic nomination fight:
Some political observers have suggested that the dynamics of the current Democratic intraparty battle could be hurting frontrunner John Kerry.
The reality is that Kerry is having a pretty easy time of things -- easier, as has been pointed out, than any frontrunner EVER after Iowa and New Hampshire.
There has been no negative paid media against him; the free media coverage nationally and state-by-state is boffo; the candidate attacks on him are mild; and he is getting to take relatively free shots at the President in a lot of general election battleground states.
In terms of keeping things going and making sure he doesn't stub his toe or worse, the best thing for John Kerry is for there to be multiple, relatively weak opponents in the race through Wisconsin and Super Tuesday.
If too many people drop out too fast, Kerry faces a potential one-on-one matchup and possible buyer's-remorse-fueled losses. With a field of this size, however, Kerry can rack up "big" wins with 35-45 percent of the vote.
Imagine this past/future timeline of mythical headlines playing out:
Feb. 3 -- Kerry Wins, Strong Democratic Turnout!
Feb. 7 -- Kerry Wins Again, Repeats Vow to Kick Lying Bush out of White House!
Feb. 10 - Edwards Wins (Tennessee, maybe) and Kerry Wins-- in the South (Virginia) !
Feb. 17 -- Another Win for Big John Kerry -- Edwards Bows Out Pledging Strong Support!
March 2 -- Kerry Wins H-U-G-E!
Not much wrong with that picture for Kerry.
Now, it's not as if Kerry is making any overt moves to prop up Clark, Edwards, and/or Dean. But it takes luck -- among other things -- to win the nomination and the White House, and the sequencing of this just might by chance be very good for Kerry.
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