The Note
W A S H I N G T O N, Feb. 2—<br> -- TODAY SCHEDULE AS OF 9:00 am (all times ET):
— 7:30 am: Gen. Wesley Clark greets employees at the Dayton Tire Plant, Oklahoma City, Okla.— 9:05 am: President Bush meets with his Cabinet, White House— 10:00 am: Sen. John Kerry receives the endorsement of New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer at the University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, N.M. — 10:00 am: Sen. John Edwards meets with voters at the College of Charleston, Charleston, S.C. — 10:30 am: The director of the Office of Management and Budget briefs the press on the fiscal year 2005 Budget, the White House— 11:00 am: President and Mrs. Bush kick off the American Heart Month, the White House— 11:00 am: Sen. Joe Lieberman and Gov. Bill Richardson visit the East San Jose Elementary School, Albuquerque, N.M.— 12:00 pm: Rev. Al Sharpton attends a "From Property to President" rally at the site of a slave market, Charleston, S.C. — 12:15 pm: Sen. Edwards meets with voters at Voorhees College, Denmark, S.C. — 12:30 pm: White House press briefing by Press Secretary Scott McClellan — 1:00 pm: Politics Live on ABC News Live and AOL— 1:00 pm: Campaign adviser Mary Matalin and others speak to the press on behalf of the Bush-Cheney '04 campaign at the Radisson, St. Louis, Mo. — 1:15 pm: Gen. Clark greets supporters at the Hispanic Cultural Center, Albuquerque, N.M. — 2:00 pm: Gov. Dean attends a get out the vote event at the La Fonda Hotel, Santa Fe, N.M. — 2:00 pm: Rev. Sharpton visits UAW Local 7898, Georgetown, S.C. — 2:00 pm: Rep. Dennis Kucinich holds a press conference to discuss weapons of mass destruction at Arizona State University, Tempe, Ariz. — 2:15 pm: Sen. Edwards meets with voters at Allen University, Columbia, S.C. — 2:30 pm: Sen. Lieberman hosts a town hall at Rose Garden Restaurant, Tucson, Ariz. — 3:45 pm: Rev. Sharpton visits the Weed & Seed Safe Haven, Florence, S.C. — 4:00 pm: Rep. Kucinich attends a get out the vote rally at Arizona State, Tempe, Ariz. — 4:30 pm: Sen. Kerry attends a "Rally for America's Future" event at the George DeMeester Performance Center, Tucson, Ariz. — 4:45 pm: Rev. Sharpton visits the It's All About You restaurant outside Shaw Air Force Base, Sumter, S.C. — 5:00 pm: Gen. Clark greets Tucson supporters at the Old County Courthouse, Tucson, Ariz. — 6:30 pm: Sen. Edwards attends a "Welcome Home" rally at the Seneca Institute Family Life Center, Seneca, S.C. — 7:30 pm: Rev. Sharpton attends a gospel concert featuring John P. Kee and Timothy Wright at Reid Chapel AME Church, Columbia, S.C. — 8:00 pm: Sens. Kerry and Lieberman, Gov. Dean, Gen. Clark, and Rep. Kucinich speak at the League of United Latin American Citizens convention, Phoenix, Ariz. — 9:00 pm: Gen. Clark greets supporters at his campaign offices, Phoenix, Ariz. — 9:30 pm: Sen. Kerry attends a "Rally for America's Future" event at Phoenix College, Phoenix, Ariz. — 12:15 am: Gen. Clark greets supporters at Two-Dee's, Las Vegas, Nev.
NEWS SUMMARY
Seventeen of the 19 reporters who decide for all America the meaning of the results of presidential primaries and caucuses met yesterday for Sunday brunch on the second floor of Lauriol Plaza.
The two missing members approved the meeting Notes by e-mail later in the day.
With John Kerry expected to win at least some of the states voting tomorrow, the macro question is, how many of the day's contests does the Bay Stater have to take in order to winnow the field and become, in the eyes of the CW, the de facto nominee?
In the Boston Globe, Tom Oliphant sets the Feb. 3 bar in an awfully Kerry-friendly place today: "Carrying the day for Kerry probably means winning four states; a viable opponent will probably have to win two." LINK
The 19 (and the wider Gang of 500) are truly torn: are we in extreme "winnowing" mode or are we in "let's keep this going" mode?
And how do we balance caring about delegate accumulation versus our obsession with wins, wins, wins?
To answer, the group turned to that kitschy and tried-and-true method of divining the political truth: the Magic Eight Ball. LINK
By the sheerest of coincidences, there are 20 plausible checkerboarded outcomes on Tuesday and precisely 20 Magic Eight Ball answers.
So, here are the possible outcomes -- roughly from biggest Kerry day to worst Kerry day -- and the pre-determined verdict the Ball came up with, regarding the frontrunner's hold on the nomination:
Other Deep Thoughts (with apologies to Jack Handy):
1. We agree with Dr. Dean -- Roy Neel is a great guy.
But to simultaneously make your last-stand attack against John Kerry that he is too beholden to special interests and your defense of Roy Neel's recent lobbying that he is a good guy and he has held other jobs -- well, let's just say that it is causing some cognitive dissonance for your traveling press corps and others.
2. Now that the www.Trippi spell is broken, we can say it loudly and clearly: Dr. Dean's performance on "Meet" yesterday was, by Gang of 500 standards, even WORSE than the historically bad one he had on the show right before he formally announced his candidacy last year: contradictory, petulant, non-responsive, small, and unpresidential (or so thought the Gang….).
3. We understand why BC04RNC is trying to strangle the Kerry baby in the crib and define him as an out-of-touch liberal before the country gets to know him as anything else -- but don't they run the risk of using up all the good stuff too early? And do the President's pollsters really say that attacking past support for the nuclear freeze (!) tests well?
4. The stories in the Washington Post and New York Times over the weekend about the candidates (particularly Kerry) taking "special interest" money had nothing new in them.
Once again, if people (the media, the other candidates, voters) want to change the standards of acceptable behavior regarding fundraising, more power to 'em.
But there is nothing unusual or hypocritical about politicians raising money to pay for campaigns from people who have money -- rich people (the whole Willie Sutton/banks thing....).
Now, the recycled story from The Hill about Kerry allegedly taking an unusual public policy action on behalf of a contributor right around the time he received some contributions is potentially an important storyline -- the alleged/apparent quid pro quo aspect. The careers of many politicians are filled with examples such as this -- including the career of our current president.
The standard for this type of thing is of course the explicitness of the quid pro quo, the appropriateness of the action, the unusual quality of the action, and, for some, the timing.
Rest assured, IF John Kerry is the nominee, there will be all sorts of new things coming out about him -- including about fundraising -- even though he has run in competitive Senate races in the past and has been running for president for months. But the notion that "Senator Takes Money From Rich People" is a story is not one we quite get -- even about candidates who rail against special interests.
5. On the other hand, this Kerry quote from the Boston Globe is going to make some people at HQ quite dizzy:
"'What happens is, you have a fund-raising team and you might have breezed into some particular fund-raiser in Washington or somewhere, an event, and met somebody, and [aides] will bring a letter and say, "You met him at so and so." You write a quick note; that's part of the fund-raising contribution,' Kerry said."
That's why the Kerry campaign's position that someday it will release all the Senator's lobbying meetings when all the records are collected is both suicidal and destined NEVER to happen. (Although Terry Holt is working as we speak on buying http://www.wewantKerry'slobbyistmeetingrecords.com and putting up some sort of "DAY X" counter.)
President Bush meets with his Cabinet and kicks off American Heart Month in Washington, D.C.
All candidates except Sen. Edwards and Rev. Sharpton speak at the League of United Latin American Citizens convention tonight in Phoenix, Ariz.
Sens. Kerry and Lieberman are both in Albuquerque this morning before heading to Arizona. Kerry is in Washington and Lieberman is in Oklahoma, Delaware, and Virginia tomorrow.
Gov. Dean is Santa Fe this morning. Dean will spend Tuesday in Washington state, Wednesday in Wisconsin and Thursday and Friday in Michigan.
Sen. Edwards and Rev. Sharpton are in South Carolina today and tomorrow.
Gen. Clark is in Oklahoma and New Mexico in the morning and afternoon and in Las Vegas following the forum.
Rep. Kucinich is in Arizona all day. He is in Arizona and New Mexico tomorrow and in Washington state Wednesday and Thursday and in Michigan on Friday.
And all the Democrats will be talking about Iraq and deficits, as far as the ear can hear.
ABC 2004: The Democratic nomination fight:
The Los Angeles Times' Ron Brownstein asks: "Has a frontrunner at the height of the race for a party's presidential nomination ever had an easier two weeks than John F. Kerry since the Iowa caucuses last month? Since Iowa, three of the remaining major candidates in the race -- Sens. John Edwards and Joe Lieberman and retired Army Gen. Wesley K. Clark -- have chosen to raise virtually no argument against Kerry's possible nomination or even establish any sharp contrasts with him on issues. The other remaining major candidate, fallen frontrunner Howard Dean, has tried to frame a case against Kerry, though in such a hyperbolic fashion that he has undercut his own effectiveness." LINK
The New York Times' Jim Rutenberg Notes that the gloves haven't come off yet in ads running in South Carolina, "Yet it is safe to say that they are, at least, being unlaced." The question is, "How do you upset John Kerry's momentum without driving up your own negatives?" asked "one strategist." LINK
The Boston Globe's Tom Oliphant thinks that the Democratic candidates' choosing not to run in all seven Feb. 3 states has proven to be Kerry's biggest advantage. LINK
John Broder and Bernard Weinraub (a rare double byline indeed) of the New York Times report Hollywood is not yet fully on board with any one candidate. LINK
Nick Anderson and Matea Gold of the Los Angeles Times have Sunday wrap-up duty and lead with Sen. Kerry swatting away Johnny Chung questions and settling in at a Fargo sports bar to watch his New England Patriots. LINK
