The Note
W A S H I N G T O N, Feb. 10—<br> -- TODAY SCHEDULE AS OF 9:00 am (all times ET):
—6:00 am: Polls open in Virginia—7:50 am: Sen. John Edwards visits a polling place at Fairlington Community Center, Arlington, Va. —8:00 am: Polls open in Tennessee—9:00 am: Off-camera press gaggle by White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan—9:00 am: Sen. John Kerry greets voters at a polling place with Rep. Harold Ford Jr., Memphis, Tenn. —9:30 am: Senate convenes for legislative business—10:00 am: Former chief weapons inspector in Iraq David Kay address the U.S. Institute of Peace, Washington, D.C. —10:15 am: Gov. Howard Dean tours and attends a town hall meeting at Superior Middle School, Superior, Wis. —10:35 am: President Bush meets with economic leaders, the White House—11:00 am: Gen. Wesley Clark attends a campaign event, Nashville, Tenn. —12:00 pm: Rep. Dennis Kucinich speaks to the press at the Nashville/Briley International Airport, Nashville, Tenn. —12:15 pm: On-camera press briefing by Press Secretary McClellan—12:20 pm: Rep. Kucinich stops at Jefferson Street United Merchant's Partnership, Nashville, Tenn. —12:30 pm: House of Representatives convenes for legislative business—1:00 pm: Politics Live on ABC News Live and AOL—1:00 pm: Rep. Kucinich visits J-J's Market & Cafe, Nashville, Tenn. —2:15 pm: Gov. Dean visits Longfellow Middle School, La Crosse, Wis. —4:30 pm: Sen. Kerry greets voters at Robinson High School, Fairfax, Va. —5:00 pm: Republican Caucus, Washington, D.C. —6:00 pm: Oklahoma State Democratic Party certifies the results of the Feb. 3 primary—6:30 pm: Rep. Kucinich visits the Outwrite Bookstore & Coffeehouse, Atlanta, Ga. —6:45 pm: Gov. Dean attends a rally at the Irish Cultural and Heritage Center of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Wis. —7:00 pm: Polls close in Virginia—7:00 pm: Rep. Kucinich attends a rally at Georgia Tech College of Architecture, Atlanta, Ga. —7:00 pm: Gov. Dean attends a rally, Milwaukee, Wis. —7:00 pm: Gen. Clark attends an election night party at the Marriott Hotel, Memphis, Tenn. —7:10 pm: Vice President Cheney delivers remarks at the American Enterprise Institute Annual Dinner, Washington Hilton and Towers, Washington, D.C. —8:00 pm: Polls close in Tennessee—8:00 pm: Sen. Kerry attends an election night party at George Mason University, Fairfax, Va. —8:00 pm: Rep. Kucinich attends a concert fundraiser at Eddie's Attic, Decatur, Ga. —8:30 pm: Sen. Edwards attends an election night party at the American Serb Hall, Milwaukee, Wis.
NEWS SUMMARY
The first version published of yesterday's Note included what was intended as a SATIRICAL report of a fictional ABC News/Washington Post poll. No such poll was conducted. The questions and results listed were not from a real poll.
But on this day when John Kerry has a chance for wins in Tennessee and/or Virginia that just might get the Southern monkey off of his back -- and take an opponent out of the race -- and after two full news cycles in which Kerry's transient upper hand over President Bush doesn't seem to have been removed by the "Meet" appearance -- on this day, let us tell you again what we tried to say yesterday.
Like every other institution, the Washington and political press corps operate with a good number of biases and predilections.
They include, but are not limited to, a near-universal shared sense that liberal political positions on social issues like gun control, homosexuality, abortion, and religion are the default, while more conservative positions are "conservative positions."
They include a belief that government is a mechanism to solve the nation's problems; that more taxes on corporations and the wealthy are good ways to cut the deficit and raise money for social spending and don't have a negative affect on economic growth; and that emotional examples of suffering (provided by unions or consumer groups) are good ways to illustrate economic statistic stories.
More systematically, the press believes that fluid narratives in coverage are better than static storylines; that new things are more interesting than old things; that close races are preferable to loose ones; and that incumbents are destined for dethroning, somehow.
The press, by and large, does not accept President Bush's justifications for the Iraq war -- in any of its WMD, imminent threat, or evil-doer formulations. It does not understand how educated, sensible people could possibly be wary of multilateral institutions or friendly, sophisticated European allies.
It does not accept the proposition that the Bush tax cuts helped the economy by stimulating summer spending.
It remains fixated on the unemployment rate.
It believes President Bush is "walking a fine line" with regards to the gay marriage issue, choosing between "tolerance" and his "right-wing base."
It still has a hard time understanding how, despite the drumbeat of conservative grass-top complaints about overspending and deficits, President Bush's base remains extremely and loyally devoted to him -- and it looks for every opportunity to find cracks in that base.
Of course, the swirling Joe Wilson and National Guard stories play right to the press's scandal bias -- not to mention the bias towards process stories (grand juries produce ENDLESS process!).
The worldview of the dominant media can be seen in every frame of video and every print word choice that is currently being produced about the presidential race.
That means the President's communications advisers have a choice:
Try to change the storyline and the press' attitude, or try to win this election without changing them.
So we ask again: What's it going to be, Ken, Karen, Mary, Terry, Nicole, and Dan?
That's quite a headline in the Los Angeles Times: "Bush Supports Shift of Jobs Overseas." LINK
And the Washington Post story filled with quotes from Republican-leaning business people who have politically soured on the President is quite striking. LINK
As is the Wall Street Journal piece despoiling the Medicare reform law before it event takes effect.
On the strength of all the negative coverage of the President and all his own positive coverage, Sen. Kerry heads into today's twin primaries on a roll.
Polls in Tennessee, where 69 pledged delegates are at stake, open at 8:00 am ET and close at 8:00 pm ET. Numbers will start to become available at 8:00 pm ET on the state board of elections Web site: LINK
Polls in Virginia, where 82 pledged delegates are at stake, open at 6:00 am ET and close at 7:00 pm ET. Numbers will start to become available at 7:00 pm ET on the state board of elections Web site: LINK
And as voters head to the polls, let's take a look at the delegate tote board, shall we?
John Kerry's huge victories in the Washington, Michigan, and Maine caucuses over the weekend allowed him to rack up the lion's share of the 228 delegates at stake.
Kerry has now collected 20 percent of the 2,161 delegates needed to secure the Democratic presidential nomination.
Kerry is way out in front in the ABC News delegate estimate with 430 overall delegates.
The Massachusetts Senator has nearly two and a half times as many delegates than Howard Dean who places second in our estimate with 179 delegates. This total includes both pledged delegates who are allocated according to their home state's primary and caucus results as well as "unpledged" delegates, known as "superdelegates," made up of state party leaders and activists, Democratic governors, members of congress, former presidents, vice-presidents, and national party chairmen.
Two of the delegates up for grabs in Maine have yet to be allocated (and are NOT reflected) as we await final vote tallies from the Maine Democratic Party.
Here are the current totals in the ABC News Delegate Estimate.
There is, of course, great interest in when and if Howard Dean, John Edwards, and/or Wes Clark will end their presidential campaigns if they don't start winning against John Kerry.
Here's why saying when people might drop out -- and how to interpret their posturing statements -- is tough:
All three campaigns realize that there are only two ways to beat Kerry now:
1. He suffers some huge scandal that makes him appear to be an unacceptable nominee -- or, at least, severely crippled and un-electable-looking.
2. (Less likely): One of the other candidates remains the last man standing and takes advantage of buyer's remorse to beat (or get close to) Kerry in contests after Wisconsin.
Kerry is getting more attention in these states with primaries and caucuses BECAUSE there are pseudo-contests, so his campaign isn't aggressively trying to force people out of the race. In addition, because no one is running negative ads against Kerry -- and the candidate attacks are mild -- the party and the Kerry campaign aren't desperate to get them out, either.
So, say, Kerry wins both Tennessee and Virginia. That could well drive Clark from the race. But that would still leave, potentially, Dean and Edwards to battle in Wisconsin.
As we said the other day, multiple opponents are good for Kerry, because he can win without facing head-to-head scrutiny.
So it is sort of a game of chicken, as, in particular, Dean and Edwards try to maintain enough credibility to hold on and get Kerry one-on-one for at least one day of contests. And if Kerry might be considering Edwards as his running mate, the exposure the North Carolinian will get in the upcoming states (especially the big Super Tuesday ones) will be good for the ticket.
Since no one has enough money to buy "real" paid TV on Super Tuesday anyway, cash money becomes less of an issue.
So hold off just a bit on the Bush-Kerry thing, will ya?
WE HEAR …WE HEAR …
That a certain network's Sunday morning anchor with a long name and a knack for politics is celebrating his 43rd birthday today.
Sen. Kerry is in Virginia.
Sen. Edwards is in Virginia and Wisconsin.
Gov. Dean is in Wisconsin.
Gen. Clark is in Tennessee.
Rep. Kucinich is in Tennessee and Georgia.
President Bush is in Washington, D.C. today.
Vice President Cheney is in D.C. as well, and will speak tonight at the American Enterprise Institute dinner at the Washington Hilton.
ABC News Vote 2004: Bush-Cheney re-elect:
The Boston Globe's Robinson reports on two new documents obtained by the Globe that show that "President Bush received credit for attending Air National Guard drills in the fall of 1972 and spring of 1973 -- a period when his commanders have said he did not appear for duty at bases in Montgomery, Ala., and Houston."
The documents, which the White House will make public today, are the "first evidence" that President Bush served during the first 11 months of that period, Robinson Notes. LINK
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