The Note

W A S H I N G T O N, Nov. 18&#151;<br> -- Today's Schedule (all times Eastern):

—8:30 am: Senator John Edwards holds a workplace town hall meeting, Hudson, N.H.—8:45 am: Congressman Dick Gephardt holds an economic roundtable, Dover, N.H.—9:00 am: House convenes for legislative business—9:30 am: Senate convenes for legislative business—11:00 am: Ambassador Carol Moseley Braun holds a media availability, D.C.—11:30 am: New Hampshire AARP presidential candidates forum, Bedford, N.H.—1:55 pm: President and Mrs. Bush arrive at Buckingham Palace, London—2:00 pm: Governor Schwarzenegger holds his first press conference as California's chief executive, Sacramento—4:15 pm: General Wesley Clark holds a "Conversations with Clark" forum with veterans, Concord, N.H.—5:30 pm: Senator Edwards holds a workplace town hall meeting, Hampton, N.H.—6:00 pm: Reverend Al Sharpton addresses the Minority Business Coalition, D.C.—6:00 pm: Senator John Kerry attends a chili feed at a firehouse, Hampton, N.H.—6:00 pm: Governor Howard Dean speaks about Enron and the political economy, Houston—6:30 pm: General Clark holds a "Conversations with Clark" forum at Plymouth State College, Plymouth, N.H.—8:00 pm: Senator Edwards holds a town hall meeting at the home of state Senator Lou D'Allesandro, Manchester, N.H.—8:00 pm: Reverend Sharpton speaks at Howard University Law School, D.C.

NEWS SUMMARY

When you are as close to the daily seesaw of presidential politics as a Googling monkey is to its computer screen, sometimes it is hard to tell the difference between a run-of-the-mill news cycle from one jam-packed with multiple events that contain tectonic-plate-shifting events.

We can't be absolutely sure, but we are relatively confident that when the history of what we call ABC Vote 2004 is written, at least some of the political swirling in the campaign windstorm today will be seen as turning points.

If today simply feels to you like an ordinary mid-November Tuesday on which you can see your own northeastern breath, consider:

1. The Massachusetts Supreme Court decision on gay marriage, in which they ruled that same-sex couples can marry under the Commonwealth's constitution, but marriage licenses may not be issued to these couples.

The AP writes:

"In a 4-3 ruling that could make Massachusetts the first state to legalize gay marriage, the Supreme Judicial Court said the state may not deny the rights conferred by civil marriage to two individuals of the same sex who wish to marry."

"'We declare that barring an individual from the protections, benefits, and obligations of civil marriage solely because that person would marry a person of the same sex violates the Massachusetts Constitution,' the court said in its ruling."

"The court remanded the case back to a state court to conform with its ruling, but said the ruling would be on hold for 180 days to allow the state legislature to take any action it may deem appropriate."

We say again: we think Dick Cheney is about as pro-gay rights as any of the Democrats running for president, but the left-leaning press and right-leaning interest groups are fascinated by this issue.

We'll remind you about what Cheney said in the October 2000 vice presidential debate with Senator Lieberman.

"The — the fact of the matter is we live in a free society, and — and freedom means freedom for everybody. We don't get to choose and shouldn't be able to choose and say, 'You get to live free, but you don't.' And — and I think that means that people should be free to enter into any kind of relationship they want to enter into. It's really no one else's business, in terms of trying to regulate or — or prohibit behavior in that regard."

"The next step then, of course, is the question you ask of whether or not there ought to be some kind of official sanction, if you will, of the relationship or if these relationships should be treated the same way a conventional marriage is. That's a tougher problem. That's not a — a slam dunk. I think the fact of the matter, of course, is that matters regulated by the states — I think different states are likely to come to different conclusions, and that's appropriate. I don't think there should necessarily be a federal policy in this area."

More on this to come all day on cable and the network news.

2. Dana Milbank's extreme must-read in the Washington Post historically explicating what may be the key to the whole election — President Bush's lack of a nomination challenge and his currently unassailable hold on Republican voters makes him tres formidable LINKdespite that; and a sky-is-sagging Gallup poll headline in USA Today ("Poll Finds Bush's Job Approval at 50%"). LINK.

3. Karl Rove's strategy for not just winning the election but remaking the GOP into the nationally dominant party is predicated in part in picking off at least some interest groups which have been historically aligned with the Democratic Party, although he hasn't succeeded in every effort (Note the Teamsters endorsement of Dick Gephardt.).

The AARP's backing of the Medicare bill has substantial destabilizing implications for the Democrats.

It will be fascinating to watch in Bedford, N.H. this morning as the major Democratic candidates (all but Lieberman on record opposing the current Medicare plan) address an AARP forum that will surely take up the multibillion-dollar Medicare challenge facing them all.

4. Political reporters are actually professionally unqualified to judge whether a given political advertisement will be effective.

It really takes more of a psychologist to determine if a pool of voters will be swayed by a certain set of flickering images.

Still, Howard Dean's decision to go negative on Dick Gephardt in Iowa on Gephardt's support for the Iraqi war resolution will likely bury Gephardt or backfire on Dean, either way with huge implications.

(And can we please stop the phony perennial debate about what is or is not a "negative" ad? This one is, and just because it is not about Dick Gephardt's, say, illegitimate children, no one should think otherwise.)

The ad, while negative, is on an important topic of difference between the two men.

5. Howard Dean's attempt to unfurl a new stump speech today in Houston. Dean's failure to talk on a regular and detailed basis about how he would be a good steward of a good economy is one of the real mysteries of this election so far.

His announcement speech hit real hard and, to our ears, real well on the special-interests-harming-the-economy theme, and he hasn't done it much high profile on it since. No Democrat is going to win the White House without talking about this stuff effectively, and we'll be interested to see how Dean does on it, intellectually and in terms of performance art.

President Bush and Mrs. Bush depart for London today.

Gov. Dean, Rep. Gephardt, Senator Kerry, Gen. Clark, Senator Edwards, and Senator Lieberman all campaign in New Hampshire today. All six of them — and only those six — will take part in a lunchtime presidential candidates forum today sponsored by the New Hampshire AARP in Bedford.

It's the first time only those six will participate in a forum — and it's not by design. All nine candidates were invited, but Ambassador Moseley Braun, Rev. Sharpton, and Rep. Kucinich declined to attend. Gwen Ifill will moderate the 90-minute forum that will feature debate on issues important to the 900 AARP members in attendance, such as Social Security and prescription drugs.

Dean also plans to heads to Houston for a speech tonight on corporate America and the future of the country's economic institutions.

Sharpton and Moseley Braun are in D.C. today.

Kucinich has no public events scheduled for today.

Today is the birthday of two individuals very dear to The Note: Mickey Mouse and ABC News Political Unit intern Blake Rasmussen. One turns 75 and the other turns 21. We'll let you guess which is which.

We figure a number of media outlets will handle coverage of Mr. Mouse's celebration. (By the way, we hope you got our card, Mr. Mouse, and really, the cheese-flavored Note was no trouble at all. We do it all the time.)

Blake's birthday on the other hand is a big, big, big, big, big deal for us because it just goes to show how much he wanted to intern with us here in D.C. that he left all his friends at the comfy confines of Cornell College in Mt. Vernon, Iowa, and a season on their perennially talented soccer team, to bring his sharp wit and intellect to us. (If you haven't read Blake's thorough index of Walter Shapiro's "One Car Caravan" yet, then you should! LINK)

Here are Blake's thoughts on the highlights of his experience so far:

"Attending my first presidential debate in Baltimore was pretty wild. The spin room was an incredible experience. It was my also my first chance to see any of the presidential candidates up close, as well as people like Donna Brazile and the 'K Street' folks."

"I think I brought another view to the unit, a fresh-faced outsiders look at national politics, like Howard Dean — only not as intense. Also, my presence alone improved the overall athletic ability of the unit by about ten-fold."

Blake still has many quality days left with the unit before he returns to Iowa to begin canvassing and laying the groundwork for The Note's victory in the Mt. Vernon precincts for the Iowa caucuses. And alas, he cannot stay with us forever, but if you think that you might want to intern with us some day, then please drop us an e-mail by clicking on the byline above.

Current national political reporters for major newspapers are not eligible.

ABC Vote 2004: The Invisible Primary meets "independent expenditures":

Boy did Ed Gillespie get some good mileage out of that conference call! The land of 5-plus-2-equals-7 might complain that the GOP is picking on it unfairly but just look at the press today on the topic of outside groups and campaign cash as Thursday's Hill hearing on the topic nears:

The Washington Post 's Tom Edsall writes up Chairman Gillespie's criticism of campaign finance groups for not acting against Moveon.org and Soros and includes the DNC's printed response, titled "Crocodile Tears." LINK

The Boston Globe was on the call too. LINK

Republicans are aggressively questioning the legality of a host of Democratic soft money organizations, mounting a two-pronged offensive against the proliferation of 527 political action committees. LINK

The GOP "fears" that left-leaning advocacy groups, including some labor unions, will raise more then $420 million in unregulated contributions may be putting the shoe on the other foot, reports the Hill's Hans Nichols. LINK

(We know those on the other side think the Republican figures are WAY too optimistic — we welcome your rebuttals and ask only that you limit your emails objecting to the Gillespie-led offensive to 250 words or less. Our monkeys can only read so much in one morning!)

ABC Vote 2004: The Invisible Primary meets Big Casino budget politics:

Jim VandeHei Notes in the Washington Post that "even before many of the details" of the Medicare and energy bills are known, the Democratic candidates are lining up almost unanimously against them — "almost" because Senator Lieberman might support the Medicare bill. (The Note wonders if we'll find out for sure at the AARP forum in Bedford today.) LINK

More on Medicare and energy below.

ABC News Vote 2004: The Invisible Primary:

Ron Brownstein and Matea Gold write the latest Dean ad "signals the aggressive posture Dean is taking in Iowa, where recent polls show him slightly behind Gephardt." LINK

More Brownstein/Gold: "Dean is widely viewed as the front-runner in the Democratic field. But a loss in the Jan. 19 Iowa caucuses — the first important contest in the nomination battle — would probably cost him momentum and give his rivals openings in other states."

The Union Leader's John DiStaso reports that at today's forum, the audience will be listening for more about healthcare and job creation, then Iraq and foreign policy. LINK

Ed Gillespie makes his way into this Michael Janofsky and Jennifer 8. Lee profile in the New York Times of MoveOn.org. LINK

As Oklahoma shapes up to be a Democratic battleground in 2004, Edwards and Lieberman are carpet-bombing the state with campaign stops. LINK

House of Labor:

It's not exactly the Antiques Road Show but we guarantee this tour will get some folks out of their La-z-Boys, into satin jackets, and out on the trail.

ABC News has learned the Dean campaign and its Unified labor friends are going on a fly-around this weekend. Friday is New Hampshire, Saturday is Detroit and Des Moines and Sunday is New York. Attending various legs of this all-star labor tour are AFSCME's Gerry McEntee, SEIU's Andy Stern and the Painters' Jim Williams.

Says one SEIU local leader from the Latino community familiar with the tour:

"We are actually going to go out big for Dean. Dean's style on his campaign has impressed a lot of the powerhouse locals that hire "yuppies" and college educated, motivated and dedicated organizers. Obviously, those hires have moved SEIU into no. 1 in union membership. The connection is very "cultural." I mean Dean groupies look exactly like many new hires at SEIU, so the fit is interesting. If SEIU can pull off some African-American and Latino worker support, Dean's camp looks great for the election in some key states. But getting the rank and file energy around Dean may be a challenge. We will see."