The Note

W A S H I N G T O N, Nov. 17&#151;<br> -- Today's Schedule (all times Eastern):

—8:00 am: Ambassador Carol Moseley Braun makes remarks at a Politics and Eggs breakfast, Bedford, N.H.—9:00 am: Senator Joe Lieberman and his mother meet with seniors, Exeter, N.H.—9:30 am: Senator John Kerry attends the opening of his Jasper County campaign office, Newton, Iowa—9:35 am: Vice President Cheney makes remarks at a Bush-Cheney 2004 fundraiser, Liverpool, N.Y.—9:45 am: Off-camera White House press gaggle with Scott McClellan—10:50 am: President Bush participates in a photo op with 2003 Nobel Award winners, White House—11:00 am: Congressman Dennis Kucinich makes remarks at the National Congress of American Indians conference, Albuquerque, N.M.—11:15 am: Senator John Edwards has breakfast with Monona County Democrats, Onawa, Iowa—11:30 am: General Wesley Clark makes remarks at the National Congress of American Indians conference, Albuquerque, N.M.—11:30 am: Senator Kerry makes remarks on small business growth, Des Moines, Iowa—12:00 pm: Senate convenes for legislative business—12:15 pm: On-camera White House press briefing with Scott McClellan—12:30 pm: House convenes for morning business—12:30 pm: Vice President Cheney makes remarks at a Bush-Cheney 2004 fundraiser, Rochester, N.Y.—1:00 pm: Senator Edwards holds a roundtable discussion with Pottawattamie County Democrats, Council Bluffs, Iowa—1:15 pm: Senator Lieberman files to be a candidate in the New Hampshire Democratic Primary, Concord, N.H.—1:35 pm: President Bush participates in a roundtable discussion with Iraqi women leaders, White House—2:00 pm: Governor-elect Arnold Schwarzenegger is sworn in as California's 38th governor, Sacramento—2:20 pm: President Bush participates in a photo op with NCAA champions, White House—3:00 pm: Congressman Gephardt holds an economic roundtable, Columbia, S.C.—3:30 pm: Senator Edwards participates in a "Working for Wisconsin" town hall forum, Milwaukee—4:30 pm: Governor Howard Dean addresses the Asian American Action Fund and Asian Pacific American Leaders Democratic presidential candidate forum, D.C.—5:15 pm: Governor Schwarzenegger makes remarks at a "Bringing Back California" luncheon hosted by the California Chamber of Commerce, Sacramento—6:25 pm: Vice President Cheney makes remarks at a Bush-Cheney 2004 fundraiser, Buffalo, N.Y.—6:30 pm: Senator Lieberman attends a house party with local activists, Manchester, N.H.—7:00 pm: Ambassador Moseley Braun appears on MSNBC's "Hardball: Battle for the White House"—8:30 pm: Governor Dean attends a birthday party campaign fundraiser, D.C.

NEWS SUMMARY

To paraphrase Gov.-elect Haley Barbour (again), The Note was born at night, but it wasn't LAST night.

We have been around the block a time or two (and, by that, we mean the block around the downtown Des Moines Marriott between Grand and Locust, with all those confusing one-way streets), and we have picked up a sense of what matters politically.

So, without further ado, Happy Birthday, Howard Dean, and here's what we believe, so, trusting Note readers, you should believe all this too:

If President Bush signs Medicare and energy bills, "they haven't led, we will" is going to look much, much better next November, and Karl Rove knows that.

And we can't wait to see what roles the Democratic presidential candidates who happen to be Senators play in the debate on those bills, with their war votes and tax votes and No Child Left Behind votes ringing in their husting ears. We KNOW what Dean will say about them.

Triple big wins for the DNC in the last 72 hours: getting the Louisiana gubernatorial victory; killing the Florida straw poll in December; and getting their debate schedule finalized, with the big Dec. 9 event in New Hampshire.

If Wes Clark really raises $12 million in the fourth quarter, reports of his demise will have been substantially exaggerated.

The Note challenges all seven of the other Democratic presidential candidates not named "Dean" or "Clark" to raise more than $4 million this quarter — we have no Trippi baseball bat to put on the Web, but anyone who raises that much will exceed our expectations.

The more the president can stay big picture ("This is why we are doing this … .Why we MUST do this … ") about Iraq and the war on terror (a) the more the Helping Hand of Hughes is evident; and (b) the less a political problem the Iraq situation becomes.

If you don't right now read Ron Brownstein's column on the Bush-era Republican hold on the South, you can consider yourself to be not all that interested in politics (and probably should question why you are reading these very words … .). LINK

Speaking of parentheticals, you should certainly check out foxy Mark Leibovich's brilliant use of one in his Hillary Clinton story, which, along with the Howard Fineman item, and the madcap Adam Nagourney piece, illustrate that when political reporters are in " … was overshadowed … " mode, there's nothing reality or a typically meandering speech can do to get them out of it. LINK; LINK; and LINK

Some Democrats and some political analysts have joined Republicans like George Will in thinking that Dick Gephardt's Iowa standing (and, thus, perhaps, Dick Gephardt) is the main obstacle standing between Howard Dean and the Fleet Center.

If you are Tom Harkin or Tom Vilsack, you gotta figure you want to endorse someone who can (a) win Iowa and (b) win the nomination — or not endorse at all. (So: where does that leave the Toms, whose endorsements actually would matter?)

John Kerry's new "Real Deal" stump speech is very well written. (You may read into that anything you wish.)

Democratic Party rules don't allow winner-take-all for delegates in any state. Mark that down well.

Governor Schwarzenegger is "finally" getting help from Bob Shrum, but a solution to the budget problems still seems elusive.

"Rush, rush, hurry, hurry, lover, come to me," is more than a Paula Abdul lyric. LINK

As December approaches, the number of campaign flights that will have to be cancelled because of Iowa and New Hampshire weather is going to go up exponentially, wreaking havoc on candidate and media scheduling (and we all know that the latter is what matters!!).

For instance, if a certain tarmac-held Des Moines-to-Chicago plane doesn't get off the ground soon this morning, some of America's leading political journalists (Zeleny, Thomma, Balz, and Nagourney, to name just a few) are going to be seriously disrupted.

Governor-elect Arnold Schwarzenegger will be sworn in as California's 38th governor today in Sacramento.

President Bush has a couple of photo ops and a meeting with Iraqi women leaders at the White House today. He and Mrs. Bush leave for London tomorrow. They return to D.C. on Friday.

Vice President Cheney hits three Bush-Cheney 2004 fundraisers in New York today.

The RNC will hold a conference call today at 2:30 pm ET with Chairman Ed Gillespie to discuss "third-party soft money organizations."

In case you're not sure what Mr. Gillespie will say, the RNC's Jim Dyke gives The Note some hints: "When a man with seven billion dollars says he will spend whatever it takes to defeat the president — you would think everyone would be concerned — especially the 'watchdog' groups who worked so tirelessly to get undue influence by individuals out of the system. Maybe these groups didn't get the Wall Street Journal on Friday and read point five of the Dems plan to defeat the president?"

The New Hampshire AARP will hold a Democratic presidential candidate forum on Tuesday in Bedford. Gwen Ifill will moderate the event that features Dean, Clark, Kerry, Gephardt, Edwards, and Lieberman. It is the first forum to have just those six. Kucinich, Moseley Braun, and Sharpton were invited and have declined to attend. The debate will include all topics, but expect at least some focus on AARP premium topics like Social Security, prescription drugs, and health care.

Gov. Dean celebrates his 55th birthday today. He campaigns in D.C. today and in New Hampshire on Tuesday. He campaigns in New Mexico on Wednesday and then heads back to New Hampshire on Thursday and Friday.

Senator Kerry campaigns in Iowa today. He's in New Hampshire on Tuesday. He heads to Florida on Thursday and then he's back in New Hampshire on Friday and Saturday.

Rep. Gephardt campaigns in South Carolina today. He's in New Hampshire tomorrow.

Gen. Clark campaigns in New Mexico today. He's in New Hampshire tomorrow. He heads to Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Massachusetts on Wednesday. He campaigns in New York City on Thursday, including an appearance on the Late Show with David Letterman. On Friday, he campaigns in New York, South Carolina, and Arkansas.

Senator Lieberman campaigns in New Hampshire today and tomorrow. He heads to Las Vegas and Palo Alto, California, on Wednesday and Thursday.

Senator Edwards campaigns in Iowa and Milwaukee today. He's in New Hampshire tomorrow, Michigan on Wednesday, Tennessee on Thursday, and Oklahoma on Friday and Saturday.

Rep. Kucinich campaigns in New Mexico today. He's in New York City on Friday.

Rev. Sharpton is in New York City with no public events today. He's in D.C. tomorrow and campaigns in South Carolina Wednesday through Friday.

Ambassador Moseley Braun is in New Hampshire and Boston today. She has her turn on "Hardball: Battle for the White House" tonight. She's in D.C. on Tuesday and Wednesday, South Carolina on Thursday and Friday, and Florida on Saturday.

The Schwarzenegger era:

John Broder and writes that beyond the vehicle license fee and SB 60, Schwarzenegger's agenda is "rather vague." LINK

The Los Angeles Times' Mitchell Landsberg reports Arnold Schwarzenegger's inaugural, though billed as low-key, will have a "frill or two." LINK

(Note Note: John Kerry's proof: Clearly Bob Shrum couldn't be masterminding the Kerry campaign shakeup and helping write Schwarzenegger's inaugural address all at the same time, could he?)

Greg Lucas and Lynda Gledhill of the San Francisco Chronicle highlight the tough task ahead as Governor Schwarzenegger prepares to solve California's budget woes. LINK

The Los Angeles Times' Peter Nicholas reports that Schwarzenegger plans to repeal the vehicle license fee today and to set a quick pace in the coming weeks. LINK

Newsweek's Karen Breslau reports on Schwarzenegger's efforts to turn himself into a great communicator. LINK

Breslau also sits down with former Governor Gray Davis. LINK

Jenifer Warren and Gregg Jones of the Los Angeles Times write up Gray Davis' return to private life after 21 years in public service. LINK

The Los Angeles Times' Michael Finnegan on the Democrats' bracing for the dawn of the Schwarzenegger era. LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: The Invisible Primary:

In a New York Times piece yesterday, Glen Justice Notes that the Post -Watergate public financing system may be on its way out. LINK

"The question is whether the primary financing system can be reshaped to attract candidates capable of raising $200 million or more or give their opponents the resources to compete."

The Boston Globe editorial board argues the campaign finance system should be overhauled before 2008. LINK

An Eagles fundraiser notwithstanding, the Hollywood elite are sitting on their hands instead of writing checks for the Democratic presidential candidates, writes the Los Angeles Times' Rachel Abramowitz. They're waiting and seeing. LINK

The Times also provides a handy list of Hollywood's donations:LINK

The powerhouse Los Angeles Times duo of Brownstein and Mark Z. Barabak produce a Dean (guns) vs. Gephardt (butter) worldview of the nomination contest in Iowa and beyond. LINK

The AP writes up UNH's latest poll, which shows Dean's lead increasing to 22 points over Kerry, whose numbers remain virtually unchanged. LINK

Chris Taylor and Karen Tumulty profile MoveOn.org LINK

The Washington Post 's Brian Faler writes up the impact of those new-fangled blog thingamijigs. LINK

David Rosenbaum Notes that the Democratic candidates support free trade in principle but abandon that support when they run into those who would be harmed by it. LINK

Raja Misha reports that a Brandeis University professor thinks Dean and Clark are "leading in the facial primary among Democrats." LINK

The New York Times ' Jennifer 8. Lee looks at the life of campaign operatives in Iowa — the air mattresses, the cold pizza, the romances — and the candidates who inspire it all.LINK

Clark:

From ABC News' Clark campaign reporter Deborah Apton:

It was a good day for the Clark campaign yesterday.

The General seemed to emerge unscathed from his hour-long interview with Tim Russert; the Boston Globe wrote a shining part 1 biography on him; more details on Clark's first television ad were released; and, at the bottom of the second graph in the Washington Post , Lois Romano wrote of the Clark campaign officials:

"They expect the campaign to raise at least $12 million this quarter, in all likelihood more than any other candidate except Howard Dean."

So now we do a brief look back at the numbers we've seen thrown out from the Clark campaign for fourth quarter earnings:

--On Oct. 22, the AP's talented Nedra Pickler wrote: "The Clark team sees New Hampshire as part of a broader strategy to raise more than $10 million by the end of the year, air ads next month, finish third in the Granite State in January, then tick off a series of wins in states with later nominating contests."

ABC News contacted Clark campaign officials after the article was published, inquiring about the figure that Pickler attributed to Clark "aides." But three said that the number came as a shock to them and they did not know where that number came from or whether it was with or without matched funds. At the time, the campaign did not have a goal amount on the record and the AP was never asked to revise the figure.