The Note
W A S H I N G T O N, Nov. 7—<br> -- Today's Schedule (all times Eastern):
—8:00 am: Senator John Edwards has breakfast with Dover area voters, Dover, N.H.—8:30 am: Governor Howard Dean addresses students at Central High School, Manchester, N.H.—9:00 am: House convenes for legislative business—9:30 am: General Wesley Clark holds a "Conversations with Clark" meeting at the Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta—9:30 am: Senate convenes for legislative business—10:00 am: Senator John Kerry holds an energy press event, Manchester, N.H.—11:30 am: Senator Kerry meets with Democratic activists, Hudson, N.H.—11:30 am: Senator Edwards holds a town hall meeting, Nashua, N.H.—12:05 pm: President Bush makes remarks at a Bush-Cheney 2004 fundraiser luncheon, Winston-Salem, N.C.—1:00 pm: General Clark holds a news conference with former South Carolina Governor Jim Hodges, Columbia, S.C.-—1:30 pm: Vice President Cheney makes remarks at a Bush-Cheney 2004 fundraiser luncheon, Austin—1:35 pm: President Bush makes remarks on jobs and the economy at Forsyth Technical Community College, Winston-Salem, N.C.—2:15 pm: Reverend Al Sharpton speaks at Bowie State University, Bowie, Md.—5:00 pm: Reverend Sharpton speaks at Morgan State University, Baltimore—5:00 pm: Senator Kerry visits Martha's Exchange, Nashua, N.H.—6:00 pm: Congressman Dennis Kucinich attends a campaign rally at the University of Washington, Seattle—6:15 pm: Senator Kerry attends a house party, Nashua, N.H.—7:00 pm: Congressman Dennis Kucinich holds a forum at the University of Washington, Seattle—7:30 pm: Vice President Cheney makes remarks at a Bush-Cheney 2004 fundraiser dinner, Houston
NEWS SUMMARY
We have said for several months the same things over and over in this space about Howard Dean, but we've come to learn that there is a certain type of person who tells us how much they LOVE The Note, how they read it every day, how they can't live without it, but, well, then it turns out that they don't actually read it all that regularly.
(Time out Note to Washington insiders: make sure you read our final section today for a Note bonus exclusive you won't see anywhere else! Now, back to Howard Dean … .)
So, on this Day After the SEIU/AFSCME news, when Dean's frontrunning status has hardened even more, let's review those things that we have suggested are the truths about Howard Dean, the sundae on which the labor cherries are going to be placed next week:
1. Dean will raise more money in the year before the election than anyone else seeking the Democratic nomination, and that historically in the modern era is (with one exception) the iron-clad predictor of who wins in both parties.
2. Beyond money, this year Dean has dominated in message and media, two other fabu things to have.
3. None of the other candidates can overtake Dean in the fourth quarter — they can theoretically do damage to him (although, outside damage with the Chattering Class, we doubt that too), but they can't cripple him. There just aren't enough people paying attention yet.
4. What doesn't kill Howard Dean only makes him stronger.
5. Fair or unfair, the media has not held Dean to the same standards as the other major candidates. Wes Clark's entry into the race sucked up a lot of publicity and took the spotlight off of Dean at the one moment when critical mass was being reached.
6. At the same time, some of Dean's explanations for his alleged inconsistencies and flip flops are actually pretty convincing.
7. Dean's core supporters don't care about Sunday show gaffes and pratfalls, New York Times editorials, or what Terry McAuliffe or the Dingells think.
8. People actually listen to Dean talk at his events.
9. Dean's willingness to cede control to volunteers in the states for planning events and executing political activities is an act of confidence and strength, and has directly resulted in his drawing unprecedentedly large crowds and building genuine grassroots support.
10. Most Washington Democrats who are scared out of their wits about Howard Dean as their nominee have never been to a Dean event and don't have a genuine understanding of WHY he has succeeded this year.
11. Skipping the matching funds is a general election strategy, not a strategy for winning the nomination.
12. Governors do well as presidential candidates, and the members of Congress who are running against Dean still for the most part haven't learned not to talk like they are from Washington ("We CAN get Breaux-Gilchrest out of conference!!!! We can DO it!!!! And then passed by both chambers!!!"). Dean talks like a real person, and voters like that.
13. Dean is no newcomer to national politics; his work on the NGA and DGA (where he recruited ruthlessly) gives him as much applicable experience as almost anyone else running.
14. Howard Dean doesn't have cable TV.
15. Howard Dean has not developed a general-election winning message on the economy — yet.
16. Dean can theoretically win a general election race against President Bush, but not without growing significantly as a candidate and a person, including and especially in his rhetorical and symbolic relationship to faith, family, freedom, and national security.
17. All of the other five major candidates think they can and should be in the end the Dean Alternative, and each has enough hold on key state and national support that they have no incentive or desire to get out of the race and consolidate beyond one of the others. The pro-war candidates in particular are splitting a piece of the pie that is large, but it is still a SPLIT piece.
18. The people who work for DeanforAmerica have FUN, from the interns in Iowa to the senior stuff; the staffs for the other campaigns don't always remember to do that.
Governor Dean addresses students at Central High School in New Hampshire. He campaigns in Vermont and Maine on Saturday. He will announce the results of the campaign's online poll regarding whether to accept federal matching funds on Saturday afternoon at 12:00 pm ET in Burlington, Vermont. He has no public events on Sunday.
On the other side of the aisle, the big news is the economy, and today's employment numbers.
GOP House foot soldiers in their one-minutes on the floor this morning trumpeted the news, although some see the numbers as "treading water."
The Note has the patience to wait until the last quarter of this year and the first of next before reaching any grand political conclusions.
Still, the absence of "bad" makes for "good," and this morning's jobs numbers bring good news for the president, ABC News' Ramona Schindelheim reports.
The employment rate jumped in October, as 126,000 non-farm payroll jobs were added to the economy. According to the U.S. Department of Labor, the gains were felt primarily in the service industry, though manufacturing jobs continued to slide and the unemployment rate remained at 6.0%.
Schindelheim Notes that the report shows three consecutive months of job growth. It's heading in the right direction, but it is a long row to hoe. The gain, combined with the 125,000 jobs added in September, does little to alleviate the jobs crises, though all added jobs are positive.
According to economists, job creation of 150,000 to 200,000 a month for several months would be treading water. The economy needs to add 200,000 to 350,000 a month for several months to put a dent in the joblessness. Total employment is down 2,698,000 since the recession began in March 2001.
More Schindelheim: Meanwhile, unemployment claims dropped last week to a 34-month low of 348,000, though October brought a jump of 125% jump in layoff announcements, to 171,874. The layoff number marked the first time in six months that the number topped 100,000.
President Bush heads to Winston-Salem, N.C., today for a fundraiser and a speech about jobs and the economy.
One of the standards that Bill Clinton set that George Bush hasn't met is explaining to the nation his view of the role of the federal government in creating a climate in which good jobs at good wages with good benefits will be created in America, and today the president takes a crack at that.
Bumiller et al. will also be watching to see if he mentions the latest American casualties.
The president will travel to Camp David tonight.
Vice President Cheney attends a pair of Texas fundraisers today.
Senator Kerry campaigns in New Hampshire today and Saturday, and chats online this afternoon. He's in Boston with no public events on Sunday.
Congressman Gephardt has no public events today. He campaigns in St. Louis on Saturday
General Clark campaigns in Georgia and South Carolina today, where he will get the key endorsement of former Governor Hodges. He's in Little Rock with no public events on Saturday. He campaigns in Missouri and Colorado on Sunday.
Senator Edwards campaigns in New Hampshire today and tomorrow, and chats online this morning. He campaigns in North Carolina on Sunday.
Senator Lieberman is in D.C. today with no public events. He heads home to Connecticut tonight and he'll be there Saturday with no public events. He campaigns in New Hampshire on Sunday.
Congressman Kucinich campaigns in Seattle today. He campaigns in California over the weekend.
Reverend Sharpton campaigns in Baltimore today. He's in New York City on Saturday and in Delaware and D.C. on Sunday.
Ambassador Moseley Braun is in Chicago with no public events announced for today or the rest of the weekend.
ABC News Vote 2004: The Invisible Primary: House of LaborSo what is the most press-friendly, equidistant point between 1313 and 1625 L Streets?
(We're not sure, but give us time.)
In any case, this is where we predict folks will be come next Wednesday when SEIU and AFSCME leaders gather to bury the hatchet and back Howard Dean.
It was quite the day Thursday as reporters gathered to hear SEIU endorse Dean instead were handed an Andy Stern statement with AFSCME's Gerry McEntee mentioned.
In any case, don't you worry, we understand just how big this Union really is for Howard Dean. And Dick Gephardt. And John Kerry. And Wesley Clark.
Until recently, as we told our gentle readers yesterday, The General had been the fav for the AFSCME hoo-hah. But no longer. Seems the Power Brokers That Be have decided to Organize. Who better than the service sector labor unions to present a united front?!
As for yesterday's vote, a source inside the SEIU exec board meeting tells ABC News' Gayle Tzemach that the vote was "nearly unanimous." As for whether the board was behind the decision favoring delay of game 'til next week, "we were supportive," said the source, "we want to speak with a bigger voice."
(We are told one Mr. Stern gave the Governor that nice purple jacket with leather sleeves. And we are waiting on our own … six that say "The Note" would be fine … )
As for the flag flap, this source says the issue did indeed come up. "He discussed frankly with us his comments" and made it clear he "knew he could have used better words" and the "real point is how to engage the Southern votes." Said the source, "People are excited, this is a great opportunity."
We are seeing, indeed, the split between the old AFL and the CIO, as the Gephardt/Dean choice now splits the House of Labor.
Dean:AP's Ron Fournier writes up the SEIU/AFSCME decision and must-reads his way through Dean's current week and grown strength. LINK
