The Note
W A S H I N G T O N, Oct. 30—<br> -- Today's Schedule (all times Eastern):
—9:00 am: Senate convenes for legislative business—9:20 am: Vice President Cheney meets with Governor-elect Arnold Schwarzenegger, White House—10:00 am: House convenes for legislative business—10:00 am: Governor-elect Schwarzenegger meets with Agriculture Secretary Ann Veneman, D.C.—12:00 pm: General Wesley Clark holds a book signing, D.C.—12:00 pm: Ambassador Carol Moseley Braun speaks at Wright State University, Dayton, Ohio—12:05 pm: President Bush makes remarks at a Bush-Cheney 2004 fundraiser luncheon , Columbus, Ohio—2:15 pm: President Bush makes remarks on energy at Central Aluminum, Columbus, Ohio—5:00 pm: Reverend Al Sharpton attends a UNITE rally, White Plains, N.Y.—5:30 pm: Senator John Kerry goes on a downtown walk, Portsmouth, N.H.—5:45 pm: Governor Howard Dean holds a town hall meeting, Seattle—7:00 pm: Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld addresses Empower America's 10th Anniversary Dinner, D.C.—7:00 pm: Reverend Sharpton attends the Connecticut NAACP convention, New Haven, Conn.—7:50 pm: Senator Joe Lieberman makes remarks at the Jewish Federation of Greater Buffalo's annual meeting, Getzville, N.Y.—7:55 pm: President Bush makes remarks at a Bush-Cheney 2004 fundraiser reception, San Antonio—9:00 pm: Governor Dean keynotes the Ada County Jefferson-Jackson Dinner, Boise, Idaho
NEWS SUMMARY
Sure, we can wait to see how the markets react (Greenspan, though, baked that into the cake); for POTUS Buckeye remarks; craftily spun Democratic statements; and, most of all, for next month's readjusted figure.
But whether you write it "seven-point-two" or "7.2," the immediate impact is, well, immediate.
It's not just the economic numbers, it's boy oh boy look at the economic numbers.
ABC News' Ramona Schindelheim reports that this morning's economic growth number — 7.2% in the third quarter, was the best showing for the Gross Domestic Product since the first quarter of 1984 and was above most estimates. The GDP got a three-pronged boost: spending by consumers, businesses and the government.
Schindelheim: Armed with child tax credit checks and a bit more money in their paychecks, consumers spent with abandon. Consumer spending grew at a 6.6% pace in July, August and September. (One economist estimated last week that consumers spent about two-thirds of the child tax credit checks and saved the rest.)
Business spending — largely in the form of computers and electronics — rose by 11.1%, the best increase since the start of 2000. Businesses actually spent less on structures.
Government spending rose as well. The shrinking U.S. trade deficit helped improve the GDP, as did lower inventories.
For the next three months leading up to the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, and the State of the Union, and seasonal shopping, and Sunday talk show after Sunday talk show, the notion that "the Bush presidency=a failed economy" ain't going to be the dominant storyline.
Sure, there are a lot of "buts" (jobs, income distribution, what fueled the growth, etc.), but, to quote economist James Carville's favorite expression "if 'ifs and buts' were beers and nuts, we'd have a heck of a party."
And The Note, as you know, almost always covers what "is," as opposed to "what ought to be," and what is is that this is a H-U-G-E political development.
In initial Administration reaction, Rob Nichols trumped Ron Bonjean — with the former sending around a muscular audio clip of reax from Secretary Snow, while Secretary Evans just did a "paper" statement.
As for the Democratic presidential candidates and their world, beyond an Edwards' prebuttal, we haven't heard much from them on the economy so far today. We share Ed Gillespie's and Dan Bartlett's interest in seeing how they handle this.
While the Republicans are dealing with big issues of war and peace, inside the world of the Invisible Primary, your major touchstones today are:
1. A possibly looming SEIU endorsement of Howard Dean — huge enough that if you don't know what that is, or why it is huge, you need to do a Google or two (or read below) — although General Clark is, ABC News has learned, getting his own SEIU meeting today to try to head that off.
2. Adam Nagourney has a very smart Clark/Dean electability piece in the New York Times (and, no, it doesn't contain the word "Kucinich"). LINK
3. Those aren't "boos" you will hear at the John Edwards' New Hampshire event today, but, rather "Lous," as the Tar Heel snags a big Granite State endorsement from Mr. D'Allesandro.
4. Dean versus Gephardt (If nothing else, watching Chuck Todd say "faggot" on C-SPAN created a bit of history.).
5. Kerry versus Lieberman.
6. ABC News exclusively gets more Sharpton versus Dean.
President Bush attends a campaign fundraiser and makes remarks on energy in Columbus, Ohio. He then heads to San Antonio for another fundraiser.
Vice President Cheney meets with Governor-elect Arnold Schwarzenegger this morning. Schwarzenegger will hold a media availability after the meeting.
Senator Edwards is in California with no public events, although he has an endorsement press conference call with legendary New Hampshire state Senator Lou D'Allesandro. He will attend private meetings and fundraisers today before heading to Texas.
General Clark holds a book signing in D.C. today.
Governor Dean campaigns in Seattle and Boise today.
Senator Kerry was scheduled to campaign in New Hampshire today, but he's cancelled most of that to be in D.C. for the climate change vote.
Congressman Gephardt has no public events scheduled for today. He heads to California tonight for private events. His daughter Chrissy campaigns in Iowa today.
Senator Lieberman will be in D.C. today for the climate change vote. Tonight, he heads to New York for the Jewish Federation of Greater Buffalo's annual meeting.
Congressman Kucinich is in D.C. with no public events.
Reverend Sharpton attends a UNITE rally in White Plains, New York, and the state NAACP convention in New Haven, Connecticut.
Ambassador Moseley Braun has a private paid speaking engagement at Wright State University in Dayton, Ohio.
ABC News Vote 2004: The Invisible Primary:Presidential candidates (or their designated surrogates) should read this USA Today cover story by Mimi Hall on the questions being raised about the differences in homeland security needs across the country. LINK
The New York Times ' Christopher Marquis takes Note of the Center for American Progress' foreign-policy fest's bad-news-is-good-news-for-us tone. LINK
And the Boston Globe says "congressional Democrats are moving to claim the center on homeland defense in the 2004 election by holding up the needs of what they say are underfunded local police and emergency responders against the Bush administration's heavy spending on Iraq." LINK
Dean:The question now is not whether the Service Employees International Union and a majority of its 1.6 million members prefer Howard Dean; rather, it's when they'll do it. Dean was the only presidential candidate to speak at a major (and private) SEIU political conference in Baltimore last week, but the horse's mouth is more direct.
Writing in this week's New Republic, Ryan Lizza got Andy Stern, SEIU's president, to say:
"'It's come down to the one candidate who has demonstrated enough support among our members … which is Howard Dean. And anything else we did would really not be true to what we said, which is that members are the soul of this union. There is only one candidate who you could honestly say has enough support to merit an endorsement. With the AFL, it was [Dick] Gephardt or no endorsement. With SEIU, it's Dean or no endorsement, and no endorsement could win … .
Some people like Dean, but they don't think the union should endorse.'"LINK
On the trail in San Francisco Wednesday, Dean seemed very confident that he'd get the nod, and soon.
Clad in a trademark purple SEIU sweater, Dean stood on a makeshift stage in Lafayette Park with SEIU local 250 president Sal Rosselli.
Rosselli a huge fan of Dean's. He and New York local 1199's Dennis Rivera have been two of Dean's biggest advocates with other SEIU leaders. But SEIU bylaws prevent him from officially endorsing anyone until his parent union makes its own decision.
When actor Rob Reiner reminded the crowd of more than 1,000 that Dean had just received the endorsement of the California Teachers Association, Dean glanced at Rosselli and piped up. "And so does someone else I know … "
Reiner appeared momentarily confused.
"Who?" Reiner asked. He turned and look at Rosselli. "This guy?"
"We're working on it," Rosselli said.
In a brief interview after the event, Rosselli was circumspect, and would only say that he was "personally" lobbying other SEIU members on Dean's behalf.
SEIU's Sara Howard tells The Note to be cautious about believing the hype.
"It's hardly news that there's a lot of passion for Dean among SEIU members," says Howard. "And, as Stern makes abundantly clear, the decision whether to endorse at all won't be made until the Executive Board comes together on November 6."
More outward signs the deal is not yet done:
The Note has learned Andy Stern and SEIU officers will meet with General Clark this afternoon in Washington.
Howard Dean waded into the world of New York City politics yesterday by urging his supporters to vote against the Mayor's proposed revision to the city charter to allow non-partisan elections. LINK
"But Dean also said he would "support nonpartisan elections" similar to those held in California, where all local races are nonpartisan, in a questionnaire submitted to the Committee for a Unified Independent Party, a research group founded by Independence Party activist Lenora Fulani. "
"Dean's office did not dispute his statement in the questionnaire."
And, of course, the Gephardt campaign couldn't resist.
"'Like his positions on Medicare and affirmative action, once again Howard Dean is trying to have it both ways,' said Kim Molstre, a spokesman for the campaign of Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt."
Dean is also taking a big hit in the Nevada papers for his Yucca flip-flopping.
Dean is devoting a lot of time during his three-day swing out West to fundraising.
There was an $1,000 a ticket deal last night in Oakland, followed by a second tier event for $100 contributors. In Boulder, Colorado on Tuesday morning, Dean raised more than $50,000. He had two events in Las Vegas Tuesday night.
Depending on whom you talk to, the campaign has nearly accumulated enough (or nearly enough) matchable dollars from donors to receive the full $18.6 million in federal funds.
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