The Note
W A S H I N G T O N, Oct. 31—<br> -- Today's Schedule (all times Eastern):
—9:45 am: Governor Howard Dean addresses the Every Child Matters Forum at the University of New Hampshire, Durham, N.H.—10:00 am: Senate convenes for legislative business—12:00 pm: Former President Bill Clinton and Governor Ed Rendell attend a campaign rally for Mayor John Street, Philadelphia—12:30 pm: Senator John Kerry makes remarks on agricultural conservation and goes pheasant hunting, Colo, Iowa—12:35 pm: Vice President Cheney makes remarks at a fundraiser for Congressman Phil Gingrey, Atlanta—1:15 pm: Governor Dean has lunch at New Hampshire Community Technical College, Portsmouth, N.H.—1:30 pm: General Wesley Clark holds a roundtable discussion on health care, Columbia, S.C. —4:30 pm: Governor Dean attends a reception with SEIU Local 1984, Concord, N.H.—5:30 pm: Senator Kerry attends a meet and greet with Marshall County Democrats, Marshalltown, Iowa—6:35 pm: Vice President Cheney addresses the Southwest Florida GOP, Bonita Springs, Florida—7:30 pm: Governor Dean attends a campaign Halloween party at the New Hampshire Institute of Art, Manchester, N.H.—8:30 pm: Senator Kerry tapes an appearance on Iowa Public Television, Johnston, Iowa
NEWS SUMMARY
Eighty days until Iowa, 88 days until New Hampshire, and one year and three days until election day 2004.
But the real number to focus on today is 72.
NOT "7.2" — yesterday's paradigm-shifting gauzy growth figure about which we have been trying to alert you all week.
(Congratulations on the Friday-through-Thursday poker faces, you pre-knowing Administration officials, you.)
No, the number on which you should be focused if you care about who wins the White House next year is 72 — as in "72 Hours."
Slide the decimal point of 7.2 just one position, and you get the kind of seasonal spooky cosmic numerology that frankly freaks us out more than a little bit.
For the uninitiated, the greatest innovation of the Bush-Rove-RNC national political operation (after figuring out how to raise more money than anyone ever) has been the introduction of a coordinated political ground game from one election day to the next — known as the party's 72-Hour Task Force. LINK
These efforts now go on literally constantly, but they culminate three days out from the actual voting with a burst of activity (surrogates, coordinated spending, TV, voter-to-voter contact, earned media, radio, e-mails, on and on and on) that is meant to counter what everyone in both parties had come to realize was a superior final push by Democrats, largely on the broad backs and shoulders of union members and that cagey Steve Rosenthal.
With strong Republican candidates poised to snatch Democrat gubernatorial seats away, tomorrow, GOP strategists kick off their final push by wheeling out their biggest artillery piece.
President Bush's visits to Kentucky and Mississippi are sure to dominate all local media in the final days, making sure that Republican partisans know that (a) there is an election; and (b) that it is important to their commander in chief (he of the gauzy growth) that they vote for these "good men" with "R's" after their names.
And the visits will have some appeal to independents, too, don't you know. Maybe even some Democrats … .
Sure, Clinton (today), Terry McAuliffe (tomorrow) and Gore (Sunday) are Democratic bosses who will be welcomed by the Street(s) of Philadelphia, but you won't see national party leaders of any type matching the Bush visits to Kentucky and Mississippi.
Is there some parallel universe in which all the Democratic presidential candidates would be barnstorming at least Kentucky to help there at the end? Sure there is, but we aren't seeing it now, and the reasons for that should make The Macker (he of the 50-state strategy) quake.
But while the national press gets focused on major surrogates, below that radar, party and interest group strategists on both sides will be looking to both push and analyze (for 2004 clues) what works and what doesn't about their ground games to get out the vote.
We haven't heard much about the Kentucky AFL-CIO and what they are doing, but it's clear that the Democrats need some union love to keep them Happy, and they might not get it.
On the well-funded Republican side (they of the Post -BCRA dominance), watch for their team to put the opposition in a full Nelson, with a Blaise of glory that will only ratchet up in a few short days for their beloved Bobby.
IF the Republicans take two more governorships away from the Democrats (and keep one in Louisiana … ), the national political media is going to have a Bernie Goldberg gut-check moment and have to ask itself: Will the coverage and credit given to the GOP be equal to what the inverse would have been had the Democrats swept these races?
In the fight for the Democratic nomination, at least one Democratic rival to Howard Dean thinks the New York Times has finally found a core party issue on which Howard Dean's "flexibility" might come home to roost with voters.
The New York Times ' Nagourney and Wilgoren scrutinize Howard Dean's record on federal and state gun control legislation and finds some circles don't quite square.
The guns issue is a divider, not a uniter, for the Democratic Party, with nomination voters strongly supporting stricter gun regulation and some key-state general election voters seeing less regulation as more. LINK
Report the Times duo, Dean-the-presidential-contender regularly assures "audiences that he firmly supports the assault weapons ban enacted under President Bill Clinton in 1994 though vigorously opposing any further federal regulation of guns." But Dean-the-governor in 1992 "told the National Rifle Association in a signed questionnaire that he opposed any restrictions on private ownership of assault weapons."
A copy of the questionnaire "was provided to The New York Times by aides to a rival Democratic candidate who is a stronger advocate of gun control."
Dean spokeswoman Tricia Enright said "there was no contradiction" in Dean's views, telling the Times Dean's "answers 11 years ago applied only to a state ban, though in fact the question at issue specifically referred to both federal and state law. Ms. Enright also pointed out that the question defined assault weapons in a way that encompassed semiautomatic rifles and shotguns commonly used by hunters in Vermont, while the federal ban applied to 19 specific weapons typically used in street violence."
The NRA, for its part, accuses Dean of "'schizophrenia,' saying he had taken positions friendly to the rifle association as governor but had changed since becoming a candidate for president."
The Kerry campaign, which just might have been the source of the Times ' effort, put out this statement — not in the Name of the Gibbs, or, even the Name of the Jordan, but, going all the way, in the Name of the Senator:
"Today's story in the New York Times on Howard Dean and the NRA reminds us that the fight against special interests begins in our own party."
"In an NRA questionnaire, Howard Dean said he opposed a ban on assault weapons and opposed even a short waiting period before buying a gun to allow law enforcement to determine if the buyer had a criminal record. Howard Dean's opposition to sensible gun safety measures — measures now passed into law and saving lives but under siege by his friends at the NRA — is indefensible. And it explains why he has been endorsed by the NRA eight times."
"I believe we must put the safety of our children and families ahead of special interests like the NRA. As a candidate and as President, I will never pander to the extremist NRA for personal or political expediency. I will beat the NRA. I have done it before and I will make America's families safer and more secure."
Kerry plans to hit the issue in his own non-written in Iowa today midday. Going to Dean's left on a core party issue — let's see if it works this time.
Deborah Orin takes a timely look at Kerry's and Dean's efforts to brandish their hunting credentials. LINK
President Bush has no public events today. He campaigns in Mississippi and Kentucky on Saturday. He's at the ranch in Crawford with no public events on Sunday.
Vice President Cheney attends a fundraiser for Congressman Phil Gingrey in Atlanta today. He later addresses the Southwest Florida GOP in Bonita Springs, Florida.
Governor Dean campaigns in New Hampshire today. He has no public events this weekend.
General Clark campaigns in South Carolina today and in California over the weekend.
Senator Kerry goes pheasant hunting and campaigns in Iowa today. He campaigns in New Hampshire this weekend.
Congressman Gephardt has no public events announced for today. He campaigns in North Dakota on Sunday.
Senator Edwards is in Texas with no public events announced for today. He campaigns in Oklahoma on Saturday and in Iowa on Sunday.
Senator Lieberman has no public events today or tomorrow. He campaigns in South Carolina on Sunday.
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