The Note

ByABC News
October 30, 2003, 10:14 AM

W A S H I N G T O N, Oct. 29&#151;<br> -- Today's Schedule (all times Eastern):

7:00 am: President Bush has breakfast with congressional leaders, White House9:00 am: Congressman Dick Gephardt meets with Humboldt County Democrats, Humboldt, Iowa9:00 am: Governor-elect Arnold Schwarzenegger meets with House Republicans, Capitol Hill9:30 am: Senate convenes for legislative business9:45 am: Off-camera White House press gaggle with Scott McClellan10:00 am: House convenes for legislative business11:00 am: Congressman Gephardt meets with Pocahontas County Democrats, Pocahontas, Iowa11:05 am: President Bush makes remarks on Medicare, D.C.11:45 am: Governor-elect Schwarzenegger meets with Senator Dianne Feinstein, Capitol Hill12:15 pm: General Wesley Clark holds a roundtable discussion on health care, Exeter, N.H.12:15 pm: On-camera White House press briefing with Scott McClellan12:15 pm: Governor-elect Schwarzenegger meets with Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, Capitol Hill12:30 am: Congressman Gephardt meets with Calhoun County Democrats, Rockwell City, Iowa1:00 pm: Senator John Kerry holds a book signing, Cedar Rapids, Iowa1:35 pm: Governor-elect Schwarzenegger has lunch with Senator Ted Kennedy, Capitol Hill2:00 pm: General Clark participates in the "Every Child Matters" presidential candidate forum at the University of New Hampshire, Durham, N.H.2:30 pm: Congressman Gephardt meets with Sac County Democrats, Sac City, Iowa2:30 pm: Senator Kerry holds a book signing, Iowa City, Iowa3:30 pm: Senator John Edwards has lunch with African American ministers, Los Angeles4:30 pm: Congressman Gephardt meets with Ida County Democrats, Ida Grove, Iowa5:30 pm: General Clark attends a young professionals campaign kickoff party to launch the "C-Company" band of supporters, D.C.6:30 pm: Vice President Cheney addresses a Bush-Cheney 2004 fundraiser dinner, D.C.7:00 pm: Governor Howard Dean attends a workers' rights rally, San Francisco7:20 pm: President Bush makes remarks at the dedication of Oak Cliff Bible Fellowship's Youth Education Center, Dallas8:00 pm: Congressman Gephardt attends an event hosted by State Rep. Wes Whitead, Sioux City, Iowa9:00 pm: Governor Dean attends a "grassroots" campaign fundraiser, Oakland9:00 pm: Senator Edwards attends a campaign fundraiser co-hosted by Ashton Kutcher, Los Angeles

NEWS SUMMARY

In politics, as in life and a typical episode of "K Street," things aren't always as they seem.

But right now (meaning, as we type these words but before they actually get posted on ABCNEWS.com), there are two central dynamics in the battle for control of the White House:

1. The amazing turn from Democrats and the media questioning the president's record on the economy to questioning his record on international affairs (driven, of course, but the improving economy and the touch-and-go situation in Iraq).

2. The seeming end of Howard Dean's amazing run to the front of the pack without getting anything like the normal level of scrutiny a leading candidate normally gets on issues as diverse as affirmative action, the death penalty, the assault weapons ban, tax cuts, the Social Security retirement age, veterans' benefits, the legitimacy of using old "votes and quotes" to attack an opponent, ethanol, matching funds, the war in Iraq, American troops in Iraq, NAFTA, Yucca Mountain, baseball, and others.

On the eve of the release of gauzy growth figures already "baked into the cake" of White House communications strategy (you must read Bill Safire on that LINK), it was much Noted that the president didn't get a single question on the economy at yesterday's press conference.

(One thing The Note loves/hates: when the White House press corps imputes high semiotic meaning to what they themselves ask or don't ask at a press conference!)

But the stories about Iraq credibility; the "mission accomplished" banner; and how the president's political health is predicated on dealing with all of this are everywhere this morning. Saving him from greater scrutiny are California wildfires, for which Karl Rove animated by the spirit of a typical Clinton cabinet member is working hard to get aid to the Golden State.

See our "Politics of national security" section below for how the president did and did not help himself on Iraq by parading in front of Ed Chen and his buddies with radio faces (Note to Mark Smith: we think you are cute, and, Bumiller, you are a total fox.).

As for Dean, nothing could be finer if you are an RNC strategist than to see Al Sharpton play the role that Democrats have long feared and Republicans have long hoped: his attack on Dean (and Jesse Jackson Jr.) was about as out there and intense as anything we have seen this cycle.

(And for those keeping extra-close inside score at home, keep watching those Donna Brazile quotes about Sharpton and Moseley Braun and Kucinich.)

While the Sharpton lash out on Dean is the cycle's most eye-catching (see "Invisible Primary" for all of that), there are others:

-- the Boston Globe with no fewer than three anti-Dean pieces, including one that derives from FOIA fruit with the implication that more FOIA-driven pieces could be on the way LINK

-- especially Scott Lehigh's excellent work using Urban Institute-Brookings numbers in the Boston Globe that show that the middle class' benefits from the Bush tax cuts are more in line with Kerry and Bush rhetoric than Dean rhetoric LINK

-- a Gephardt attack on Medicare and Dean that just might be cutting LINK

-- a cool Kucinich release on unfair media coverage and Dean.

Still, although all these things might be having a corrosive effect, The Note has staked its 2003 crystal balling on the Notion that none of Dean's inconsistencies and none of the attacks thereon will take him down this calendar year, but that they could begin to undermine the foundation of a house that will be under siege in January.

As they say in television, only time will tell.

President Bush has breakfast with the congressional leadership and makes remarks on Medicare this morning in D.C. He then travels to Dallas to make remarks at the dedication of Oak Cliff Bible Fellowship's Youth Education Center. Then, it's on to the ranch.

Vice President Cheney addresses a Bush-Cheney 2004 fundraiser tonight in D.C.

Governor-elect Schwarzenegger hits the Hill today, meeting with House Republicans, Senator Feinstein and Senate Majority Leader Frist before lunching with Senator (and uncle-in-law) Kennedy.

Senator Kerry holds a couple of book signings in Iowa.

Governor Dean campaigns in the San Francisco Bay area.

General Clark campaigns in New Hampshire and D.C.

Congressman Gephardt campaigns in Iowa today.

Senator Lieberman is in D.C. with no public events. The Lieberman-McCain Climate Change bill is scheduled to be introduced on the Senate floor today.

Senator Edwards campaigns in Los Angeles, including a fundraiser with Ashton Kutcher. (Let's hope dude doesn't get punk'd.)

Congressman Kucinich is in D.C. with no public events.

Reverend Sharpton is in New York City with no public events.

Ambassador Moseley Braun travels to Ohio today and has no public events scheduled.

ABC News Vote 2004: The Invisible Primary

The New York Times ' Slackman focuses on Jesse Jackson Sr.'s decision to stay out of the endorsement game this cycle, Noting that Jackson's silence, combined with the decision of his son, Congressman Jesse L. Jackson Jr., Democrat of Illinois, to support Howard Dean, has exacerbated tensions between him and Mr. Sharpton, people close to them say. Mr. Sharpton, after all, is casting himself as the new Jesse Jackson. LINK

USA Today has some fun excerpts from Walter Shapiro's new book, "One Car Caravan: On the Road with the 2004 Democrats Before America Tunes In," which is scheduled to hit bookstores next week. LINK

The Boston Globe 's Scot Lehigh asks if the Democrats feel lucky with their tax cut positions. LINK

Dean:

From ABC News' Dean campaign reporter Marc Ambinder:

"In Denver and Boulder, Colorado, Tuesday, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean picked up the endorsements of four prominent local African-American politicians, including State Senator Peter Groff, who heads the University of Denver's Center for African-American policy."

"There were not timed to coincide with Al Sharpton's charge that Dean's agenda is 'anti-black.'"

"But they might as well have been. The campaign argues that Dean's resume, his contextualized statements about affirmative action, and what they characterize as a growing level of African-American support parries the charge with vigor."

"Dean's first response, issued through deputy campaign manager Andi Pringle, was brief, indirect, and did not mention Sharpton."

"'Governor Dean has always been a strong supporter of affirmative action, and he believes there is still a great need for affirmative action in America. Everywhere Governor Dean travels he talks about the fact that racism is still a serious problem in America, and he strongly believes that we need to actively work to correct these wrongs, and he believes affirmative action is a crucial piece of achieving that goal.'"The AP later got Dean himself on the record.

"'That's about help for people who don't have any money, and I think we should do that. But I also think affirmative action has to be about race, and I've said that all throughout this campaign,' Dean said." LINK

"It's safe to say that Dean's campaign is not worried about Sharpton's being a political threat, but certainly not unconcerned about Gephardt's political threatitude in Iowa."

"But no one in the campaign would challenge Sharpton directly."

"White Democrats wading into disputes among black leaders is a touchy business, particularly for a presidential candidate who has been criticized for attracting too few black supporters. (The South Carolina poll numbers, the remarks by other campaigns (and some neutral observers) about white-seeming audiences, the small white state thing)."

"Can a white Democrat running for president, particularly one in Howard Dean's political position, afford to personalize an attack leveled against him by a black Democrat?"