The Note
W A S H I N G T O N, Oct. 20 —<br> -- Today's Schedule (all times Eastern):
—9:30 am: Senator John Kerry meets with the editorial board of the Nashua Telegraph, Nashua, N.H.
—9:40 am: Senator Joe Lieberman tours a daycare center and holds a roundtable discussion and press availability, Wilmington, Del.
—10:00 am: Senator John Edwards attends the Every Child Matters/WMUR presidential forum at the University of New Hampshire, Durham, N.H.
—11:30 am: Governor Howard Dean holds a town hall meeting to discuss his economic policy, Sioux City, Iowa
—12:00 pm: Senator Lieberman makes remarks and holds a press availability at the Modern Maturity Center, Dover, Del.
—12:30 pm: Senator Edwards holds a workplace town hall meeting at AmberWave, Salem, N.H.
—12:30 pm: House convenes for morning business
—1:00 pm: Senator Kerry attends the Every Child Matters/WMUR presidential forum at the University of New Hampshire, Durham, N.H.
—1:15 pm: Governor Dean meets with Plymouth County Democrats, Le Mars, Iowa
—1:30 pm: Senate convenes for morning business
—2:30 pm: Senator Kerry delivers an environmental speech at the University of New Hampshire, Durham, N.H.
—2:45 pm: Governor Dean meets with Sioux County Democrats, Orange City, Iowa
—4:15 pm: Governor Dean meets with Lyon County Democrats, Rock Rapids, Iowa
—5:30 pm: Senator Kerry meets with students at Harvard University, Cambridge, Mass.
—5:45 pm: Governor Dean meets with Osceola County Democrats, Sibley, Iowa
—7:00 pm: Senator Kerry appears on "Hardball: Battle for the White House" at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, Cambridge, Mass.
—7:15 pm: Governor Dean meets with O'Brien County Democrats, Sheldon, Iowa
—7:20 pm: Vice President Cheney delivers remarks at a fundraiser for Congressman Jim Leach, Cedar Rapids, Iowa
—9:15 pm: Governor Dean meets with Emmet County Democrats, Estherville, Iowa
NEWS SUMMARY
Why is it that the same journalists who quadrennially force every presidential candidate to spend a comically disproportionate amount of their resources in Iowa and New Hampshire get to decide in what instances candidates get a pass to skip Iowa?
Adam Nagourney's employer — the New York Times — was nice enough to post his historic story on the paper's Web site early enough Sunday night that there was time for other organizations to do some matching, but the (Jerry) Gray Lady's version is the one that will go into the history books. LINK
The lead: "Two prominent Democratic presidential candidates, Gen. Wesley K. Clark and Senator Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut, have decided to bypass Iowa's presidential caucuses, angering some party leaders there and signaling what could be a very different nomination battle next year."
After that comes a cascading tumble of prose and quotes that insiders are re-reading and lapping up as they have few stories this presidential cycle.
The subset of the Gang of 500 that sets expectations for Iowa and New Hampshire — determining on a daily and weekly basis all the way up through caucus and primary days what constitutes a "win" for those competing — is likely to follow the Times zeitgeist and let Clark (certainly) and Lieberman (probably) have a McCainial pass out of competing in Iowa.
Henceforth, can we all agree to refer to this subset as "the 25 expectation setters," shortened to, as pronounced, "the 25S"?
In a cosmic blow to the four nominatable candidates still competing flat-out in the caucuses (Gephardt, Dean, Kerry, and Edwards), Nagourney (a leader to be sure in 25S) has the temerity to write:
" … the absence of General Clark and Mr. Lieberman could plant an asterisk alongside the results of the caucuses on Jan. 19. Even Iowa Democratic leaders, eager to maximize their quadrennial exercise of influence, say it could diminish the state's role in choosing the a nominee."
The Lieberman and Clark decisions have great implications for determining the identity of the Democratic nominee for president — but nobody can tell you for sure what those implications will be.
While this development is on many levels inside baseball, much of the early jockeying for positioning — even after the voting starts early next year — has a hefty inside baseball component.
Today, as on more days than not between now and January, 2004, if you are looking for people who want to work in the White House starting in January of 2005, check in Iowa and New Hampshire — where today you will find Cheney, Kerry, Dean, and Edwards.
Will the Two Skippers get to be in the Iowa debates? Will New Hampshire voters reward or punish them for dissing their first-in-the-nation sister state? What does this do for the relative expectations of the remaining candidates?
For Lieberman, this decision allows him to stop wasting resources in a place out of which he couldn't get any bounce, whether he finished fourth (unlikely), fifth, or sixth (or, truth be known, seventh).
For Clark, assuming he pulls this off, he avoids showing the feet of clay that would be deadly to his I'm-a-winner-premised candidacy.
See below for more on all this in our "Lieberman and Clark Can Now Oppose Ethanol" section.
The other big story with the president away is the sixth (or so) wave of "Howard Dean is going to be the nominee and what does it all mean?" stories.
See the Dean section below for all that.
President Bush attends the APEC meeting today in Bangkok as he continues his Asian tour.
Vice President Cheney delivers remarks at a fundraiser for Congressman Jim Leach tonight in Cedar Rapids, Iowa.
Governor Dean campaigns in Iowa today through Wednesday.
Senator Kerry is in New Hampshire today and tomorrow. He heads back to D.C. on Tuesday night for the Building and Trades dinner. He's in Iowa Wednesday and Thursday and back in New Hampshire on Friday.
General Clark has no public events scheduled for today. He is scheduled to campaign in New Hampshire Tuesday through Thursday, including another "New American Patriotism" speech at the University of New Hampshire in Manchester on Tuesday.
Congressman Gephardt is in D.C. today with no public events.
Senator Lieberman campaigns in Delaware today.
Senator Edwards campaigns in New Hampshire today. He's in Iowa on Wednesday and Thursday, Florida on Friday, and South Carolina and Oklahoma on Saturday.
Congressman Kucinich has no public events scheduled for today. He campaigns in New Hampshire on Wednesday, Florida on Thursday, New Hampshire on Friday and Saturday, and Michigan on Sunday.
Reverend Sharpton is in New York City with no public events scheduled for today.
Ambassador Moseley Braun has no public events scheduled for today. She keynotes the Harris County Women's Political Caucus meeting in Houston on Thursday, campaigns in Wisconsin and Illinois on Saturday, and campaigns some more in Michigan and New Hampshire on Sunday.
This Sunday, the Democratic presidential candidates will get together in Detroit for another DNC sanctioned debate. This one is sponsored by the Congressional Black Caucus and will take place at the historic Fox Theater in downtown.
ABC News Vote 2004: The Invisible Primary: Lieberman and Clark Can Now Oppose Ethanol:
Beyond Nagouney's story, the two most important narratives of this key tale are Tom Beaumont's in the Des Moines Register LINK and the Weiss/Mishra effort in the Boston Globe . LINK
Beaumont lets Clark and Lieberman spokesguys take their whacks at explaining why this change is a sign of sense and not weakness, even though, as best as The Note can tell, neither campaign did any of the groundlaying with the 25S that we have long advocated for those looking to do some paradigm shifting.
Says Jano Cabrera, Lieberman's guy and a man who has changed a paradigm or two in his time: "Unlike years past, there aren't just two early primary states, there are nine. What that means for the candidates is that each will have to focus their resources where they think they will prove the most effective. Without a doubt we think this is a winning strategy."
Beaumont also has political analyst Tom Vilsack giving Lieberman a pass but scolding Clark, and pointing out, correctly and implicitly, that John Edwards now has to decide what fourth place in Iowa is really worth and/or if he can do better than fourth.
Finally, Beaumont quotes a fella named Steve Hildebrand approving of Clark's strategy ("There's more than one way to get to the presidency … Clark may be able to perform better and get the nomination by skipping Iowa."), and points out that Hilde has deep Iowa roots.
What he doesn't mention, and which Hildebrand oh-so-reluctantly told The Note on Friday, is that the Modest Man is now officially supporting Clark's candidacy (and letting that Iowa talent go to waste), including with cash money, as the FEC Web site makes clear! LINK
HILDEBRAND, STEVENSIOUX FALLS, SD 57104US SENATOR TOM DASCHLE/CAMPAIGN MCLARK, WESLEY KVIA CLARK FOR PRESIDENT09/17/2003 1000.00 23992086913
The Globe has Lieberman being swayed by McCain strategist John Weaver, and the Nutmeg State Senator calling Vilsack and Attorney General Tom Miller himself to let them know the news.
As for the Nagourney story, it doesn't have much in the way of reaction from the Big Four who will play in Iowa, but one Clark adviser's metaphorical explanation of the strategy caught at least one eye.
"'What we'll do is what I call the General MacArthur strategy,' a senior Clark adviser said. 'General MacArthur was very successful in World War II because he skipped over the Japanese strongholds, where they were more organized, and instead picked islands that were favorable or neutral terrain. Which means we would choose not to focus resources on Iowa and instead focus them on New Hampshire and on Feb. 3 … .'"
