The Note
W A S H I N G T O N, Oct. 15 —<br> -- Today's Schedule (all times Eastern):
—8:00 am: Senator Joe Lieberman makes remarks at a breakfast sponsored by the Voter Education Project, Columbia, S.C. —9:00 am: Congressman Dennis Kucinich officially announces his presidential candidacy, St. Louis —9:30 am: Senator Lieberman holds a roundtable discussion with single mothers, Columbia, S.C.—9:30 am: Senate convenes for legislative business—10:30 am: Senator John Kerry makes remarks on senior issues, Mason City, Iowa —11:45 am: Governor Howard Dean meets with Van Buren County Democrats, Keosauqua, Iowa —12:15 pm: Congressman Kucinich speaks at the Willkie House, Des Moines —1:00 pm: Senator Lieberman meets with customers at Hyman's Seafood Company, Charleston, S.C. —1:50 pm: President Bush participates in a roundtable discussion on the economy and housing at Ruiz Foods, Dinuba, Calif. —2:00 pm: Governor Dean meets with Marion County Democrats, Knoxville, Iowa—2:00 pm: House convenes for legislative business—2:15 pm: President Bush makes remarks on the economy and housing at Ruiz Foods, Dinuba, Calif. —4:00 pm: AARP Iowa Democratic presidential candidates forum, Des Moines —4:00 pm: Reverend Al Sharpton speaks to students at Claflin University, Orangeburg, S.C.—5:00 pm: General Wesley Clark holds a media availability with Governor Bill Richardson, Santa Fe—5:45 pm: General Clark tours a non-profit that provides meals for disabled and chronically ill people, Santa Fe—4:15 pm: President Bush attends a Bush-Cheney 2004 luncheon fundraiser, Fresno, Calif. —6:45 pm: Governor Dean meets with Story County Democrats, Story City, Iowa —7:00 pm: Senator John Edwards meets with Jasper County Democrats, Newton, Iowa —7:00 pm: Congressman Dick Gephardt meets with Polk County Democrats, Des Moines —7:30 pm: Senator Kerry meets with Mahaska County Democrats, Oskaloosa, Iowa —8:00 pm: Ambassador Carol Moseley Braun attends a town hall forum at Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa —8:30 pm: Senator Edwards meets with Democratic activists at Grinnell College, Grinnell, Iowa—9:00 pm: General Clark attends a private campaign fundraiser, Las Vegas—9:05 pm: President Bush attends a Bush-Cheney 2004 reception fundraiser, Riverside, Calif.
NEWS SUMMARY
We find it positively extraordinary the amount of planning that is going on in the Bush campaign, at the DNC, on 527 Row, and in the presidential campaigns on the assumption that a Democratic presidential nominee will be chosen by the first week of March at the latest.
Of course, we also find it extraordinary that people act as if there IS a de facto nominee by then that it will mean that front-loading the caucus/primary calendar will have produced a nominee far earlier than usual (when, in fact, presidential nominees are usually determined by the third week of March at the latest).
All the Bush fundraising/spending stories; all the Dean "busta cap" stories; all the network budget planning; all the anchor vacation schedules; all the (public) Democratic candidate calendar strategizing — all of that seems to assume a world in which there is an early Democratic nominee.
As we have long argued, every cycle in the modern (post-"Chico and the Man") era has featured a nominating process in which Iowa and New Hampshire are solely about wins/momentum/expectations (and not delegate accumulation), and the impact on determining the nominee of subsequent contests moves along a continuum, with each successive day of elections increasingly less about wins/momentum/expectations, and more about delegate accumulation — moving with more speed on the Democratic side because they don't have winner-take-all events.
So before the president's impending trip to Asia gets everyone back to making inevitable (and inevitably haunting) 41/43 comparisons, stop what you are doing and read all of Walter Shapiro's brilliant, nearly-accessible-to-normal-people explanation of (as they say on the Upper West Side) why this presidential election cycle just might be different than all other presidential election cycles.
Shapiro has a thoughtful and slightly introspective must-read about conventional wisdom regarding the significance of: winning Iowa and New Hampshire, having the most money, and trying to fit circle-peg candidates into square-hole historical models. LINK
(But Walter, Walter, Walter: busting the caps for Dean is SO much more about the general election than about the nomination! YOU of all people. In a piece otherwise so comfortingly brilliant … .)
Then read Congressman Rahm Emanuel's (D-Wrigley Field) important op-ed in the Wall Street Journal on how the Democratic presidential candidates should be for tax reform and tax fairness and stop being tricked by the president into a debate on the past and the Bush tax cuts.
Funny there is no mention here that Emanuel supports Wes Clark, and no indication that Clark is taking this seemingly smart advice.
As for the president, he is only two or so news cycles away from being faced with comparisons to his dad (and threatened with the possibility that in this Punk'd/Internet word, someone might actually show the video of 41 losing it on the Japanese PM, at least streamed on the Web).
And if BC04 Republicans can't believe their delight at how nasty and negative things are getting between the Democrats, the Democrats can't believe how much morphing of 43 into 41 is still going on.
There's the notion that the election day economy is already "baked in the cake" (both Will and Gigot have now trotted that out on Sunday mornings), and there ain't nothing a President can do.
There is the resistance to open campaigning, beyond the Rose Garden (They will laugh and laugh and laugh about that at Olive's today.)
John Snow IS starting to look a bit like Nick Brady around the eyes.
And the globe-trotting Don Evans is turning positively Mosbacherian in the eyes of Democrats.
On the other hand, we think The General said it best in the desert:
" … I think it's a little — I think it's really embarrassing that a group of candidates up here are working on changing the leadership in this country and can't get their own story straight."
In candidate rhetoric and campaign e-mail, the gloves are SO off on the donkey side, with Dr. Dean's particular brand of "I'm not going to attack my opponents like they are attacking me, at least not in this sentence, but get ready for a shift in the next sentence" getting the "hypocrisy" label from some rivals.
Nobody is predicting (yet) that Bush will open the Good Doctor up like a soft peanut, but it sure feels like we will be at that rhetorical level by the time we get to Dick Clark's New Year's Rocking Eve.
It's one of our patented political three-ring circuses today, with the AF1/Cali POTUS road show; Democratic candidates talking to the 30-something-but-thinks-like-an-old-person Chuck Todd at an AARP event in Iowa; and wherever George Clooney is at any given time.
President Bush heads to the Golden State today to make a speech on the economy and housing and attend a pair of Bush-Cheney 2004 fundraisers.
General Clark appeared on ABC's Good Morning America and CBS' Early Show today in New York City. He heads to New Mexico for another public service speech and then on to Las Vegas for a private campaign fundraiser.
Senator Kerry, Governor Dean, Congressman Gephardt, Senator Edwards, Representative Kucinich, and Ambassador Moseley Braun all campaign in Iowa today.
The six of them will take part in that AARP presidential candidates forum in Des Moines. The candidates will be on the stage together and thus able to engage one another and (if they're up to it) maybe Mr. Todd too. A good chunk of the forum will focus on Medicare.
While we are on the topic of healthcare (kinda sorta with Medicare being a big topic at today's forum), here's a quick programming Note: ABC News is devoting next week to a comprehensive series looking at the state of healthcare in America across all of its broadcasts and platforms. That's next week on ABC News.
Senator Lieberman and Reverend Sharpton campaign in South Carolina today.
And needless to say for all of you squirming in your seats waiting to count da money … .today is the deadline for FEC third quarter filings. Who will post first? Who will post last?
And who will post sixth? (You can read that last one in two different ways of course.)
The suspense is too intense!!!
And how many news organizations will actually obtain and analyze disbursements?
Every year on Rick Berke's birthday, we silently apologize to him for ever doubting for even a minute that he could make the transition from world-class, Marriott-point-acquiring political reporter to world-class editor.
How wrong we were.
Happy birthday, from The Note to the Pride of Walt Whitman High School, who still (despite what we wrote above) has never topped his Nixon scoop.
ABC News Vote 2004: The Invisible Primary:
A new ABC News/ Washington Post found that if the 2004 presidential election were held today, 46% of Americans say they would vote for President Bush, while 47% would favor an unnamed Democratic candidate — a statistical dead heat and the president's weakest showing in a generic horse race poll.
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