The Note

ByABC News
September 23, 2003, 10:25 PM

W A S H I N G T O N September 23&#151;<br> -- Today's Schedule (all times Eastern):

8:30 am: Senator John Edwards attends a reception with supporters, McAlester, Okla.

9:00 am: Representative Dick Gephardt attends a reception at the UFCW Hall Local 431, Davenport, Iowa

9:00 am: Senate Environment and Public Works Committee meets to consider the nomination of Governor Mike Leavitt to head the Environmental Protection Agency, Capitol Hill

9:30 am: Senate convenes for legislative business

10:00 am: Senator John Kerry endorsed by Jeanne Shaheen, Manchester, N.H.

10:30 am: President Bush addresses the United Nations, New York City

12:00 pm: Senator Bob Graham attends a League of Conservation Voters lunch, D.C.

12:00 pm: House convenes for morning business

12:30 pm: Howard Dean attends a rally at Copley Square, Boston

1:30 pm: Senator Joe Lieberman and Governor Gray Davis discuss homeland security in a press availability at a firefighters union hall, Santa Ana, Calif.

2:00 pm: Representative Gephardt attends the National Agricultural Summit at Kirkwood Community College, Cedar Rapids, Iowa

2:00 pm: Representative Dennis Kucinich and Reverend Al Sharpton participate in a panel discussion on peace and ethics with the Dalai Lama and others in a forum sponsored by the Tibet House, New York City

3:00 pm: Maria Shriver speaks to the Commonwealth Club, San Francisco

5:30 pm: Senator Graham attends a campaign fundraiser with young professionals at the Capitol City Brewing Company, D.C.

6:00 pm: Arnold Schwarzenegger holds a town hall meeting, Sacramento

6:30 pm: Vice President Cheney attends a Bush-Cheney 2004 fundraiser, Manchester, N.H.

7:00 pm: Senator Graham attends a private campaign fundraiser, D.C.

8:20 pm: President and Mrs. Bush attend a reception at the Museum of Natural History, New York City

8:30 pm: Gerneal Clark speaks to students at De Pauw University, Greencastle, Ind.

NEWS SUMMARY

The Note is fascinated by three things: big political events, exquisite dilemmas, and must reads, and today brings many of them all.

President Bush speaking to the U.N. bigger than big.

The POTUS fall and Clark rise in the Gallup poll huge.

Jeanne Shaheen's endorsement of John Kerry so non-wee.

The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals ruling on the recall date gigantic.

Darrell Issa's squishiness on question one of the recall larger than large.

Howard Dean's rally within an easy jog of the Kerry townhouse mammoth.

Dick Cheney in the Granite State humongous.

As for exquisite dilemmas, every major political player in America faces 'em today.

President Bush is suffering through one of the five worst insiders-only news cycles of his presidency (contained within the Chattering Class and the big-time papers, but not infecting cable or broadcast TV yet).

Arnold Schwarzenegger is confronting a "tough" Los Angeles Times and the question of how to get to 30%.

All nine of Wes Clark's opponents are trying to figure out how to grab the Razorback tiger by the tail.

Clark is trying to figure out how to harness what is magic.

Joe Trippi is trying to decide if he would rather be wrong or right.

As for must reads, all of today's (we SWEAR we aren't making this up or even simply going with the flow .) revolve around a Bush Administration facing what Scott McClellan and The Note call "challenges."

It was probably inevitable that at some point some Democratic presidential candidate would show up in a major poll beating President Bush in the horserace, but who knew it would be a candidate who doesn't even know who Dick Gephardt's best man was at his wedding?

Somehow, the political media seems less impressed with the fact that Matt Dowd predicted that the president's poll numbers would drop than Dan Bartlett is.

The darkest clouds of the day come nestled on A29, in the form of the work of the New York Times ' Elisabeth Bumiller, which today is both seminal and semi-over-the-top, with the president and his (wo)men cast as not in a panic but "on edge."

Bumiller Notes that the president who stands before the United Nations on September 23, 2003, is in a far weaker political position than the one who addressed the General Assembly on September 12, 2002, offering worried blind quotes from Administration officials concerned about their electoral fortunes as election season nears. LINK

From a White House usually Tupperware-tight when it comes to letting the air of its concerns out into the media, this is news indeed.

"People close to the president say that as the 2004 campaign approaches, the mood at the White House is not one of panic, but that Mr. Bush is worried and his top officials are on edge, particularly about the nearly three million jobs lost since Mr. Bush became president and about the so-far jobless recovery."

"At the same time, Bush advisers acknowledge a high level of anxiety among House Republicans over what they perceive as the White House's inability to communicate its policies on Iraq effectively."

What we have, then, is a failure to communicate, as someone once said (and we don't mean House Democrats .).

Quoteth Bumiller of "one Bush adviser," "I think there is a sense of being under assault and not being able to reclaim the upper hand in a way that seemed so effortless in the past."

Dave Winston and Bill Kriston say any delusions of success have passed.

And in the similarly marquee slot of A18, the Washington Post 's Dana Milbank says this, "When President Bush addresses world leaders at the United Nations today, he will be in an unfamiliar position: on the defensive." LINK

And/but the Washington Post 's mature Jim VandeHei gets on-the-one-hand-on-the-other-hand into one compact, crystaline sentence, explaining why the Bumiller worldview doesn't necessarily matter for CREEP:

"While polls offer only a snapshot of feelings at a given moment, this one reinforced a growing belief among Democrats that Bush is beatable, especially if the economy and the situation in Iraq do not improve in the months ahead."

And, he could have added "-- but only if they find a nominee who can't be destroyed."

On the economic front, insider trouble across the board, with

1. David Cay Johnston in the New York Times saying "President Bush's tax cuts will put a trillion dollars in people's pockets over six years, but because the government is spending far more than it is taking in, the president's policies also mean that Americans face a much larger future tax bill or equally large cuts in government spending to balance the government's books."

2. A devastating Washington Post story ("For Bush's Iraq Request, Tough Comparisons Loom"), apparently based on Democratic Hill research, matching up proposed Bush Iraq spending with the parallel "needs" at home in areas such as housing, education, and health care. LINK

And then:

3. Eek: front pge of the Wall Street Journal : "U.S. Push for Weaker Dollar Rattles Markets Around Globe."

4. Eek eek: the Journal's editorial board is semi-tough on Secretary Snow's stewardship and super-tough on the steel tariffs in separate pieces.

Let's all reconvene tomorrow, right here, and see how it all turned out in the space of one lightening-round of a news cycle!

Today .

President Bush addresses the United Nations this morning.

He will hold separate meetings in the afternoon with the leaders of Spain, France, Indonesia, Morocco, and the Afghan Transitional Authority.

He and Mrs. Bush will attend a reception tonight at the Museum of Natural History. (By the way, The Note hopes that the president is just as happy as we are that the whale is back.)

Vice President Cheney attends a Bush-Cheney 2004 fundraiser tonight in Manchester, New Hampshire.

Senator Kerry receives the expected-but-not-so-soon endorsement of the Granite State's best political Democratic mind (Jeanne Shaheen) in New Hampshire today and heads back to D.C. tonight.

Governor Dean attends a campaign rally in Boston. He travles to New York City tonight.

General Clark is fundraising in New York City today. He also travels to Greencastle, Indiana, tonight to speak to students at De Pauw University.

Senator Lieberman meets with Governor Davis to discuss homeland security today in Santa Ana, California.

Senator Edwards campaigns in Oklahoma today.

Senator Graham attends a League of Conservation Voters lunch and holds fundraisers in D.C. today.

Congressman Gephardt attends a reception and the National Agricultural Summit in Iowa today.

Congressman Kucinich and Reverend Sharpton will participate in a panel discussion on peace and ethics with the Dalai Lama and others in a forum sponsored by the Tibet House in New York City.

Ambassador Moseley Braun has no public events announced for today.

Due to incorrect information provided by the campaign, we reported that Boston mayor Tom Menino would introduce Gov. Howard Dean at today's event in Copley Plaza. Menino, who is travelling, will not attend. We regret the error.

In the recall:

The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals is expected to make a decision this morning about whether the recall will go ahead as planned on October 7.

As mentioned above, Governor Davis will meet with Senator Lieberman to discuss homeland security today in Santa Ana.

Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante has no public events scheduled for today.

Arnold Schwarzenegger holds an "Ask Arnold" town hall forum today in Sacramento. Maria Shriver will speak to the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco today.

State Senator Tom McClintock has no public events announced for today.

The politics of national security:

USA Today 's Bill Nichols and Richard Benedetto preview the president's trip to the U.N. LINK

USA Today 's Barbara Slavin writes that the president's visit to the U.N. to ask for help in Iraq "is a tacit admission that his administration has reached a foreign policy turning point. LINK

Knight Ridder's Ron Hutcheson writes that the president's "no-compromise stance could soften in the face of growing domestic and international pressure for U.N. involvement." LINK

The Wall Street Journal 's Greg Hitt and Jess Bravin look at President Bush's tactics in today's U.N. speech, pivoting to focus on stopping the spread of weapons of mass destruction, a more likely crowd pleaser, instead of a multinational security force in Iraq, which is proving a much tougher sell.

The speech, which also talks up the reconstruction of Iraq and Afghanistan and ending human trafficking worldwide, is a gateway for the president to push a resolution for a more defined role for the U.N. in returning sovereignty to the Iraqi people, writing a constitution and monitoring elections.

While the president appeals to the U.N. today, Senate Democrats yesterday went after L. Paul Bremer, the chief U.S. administrator for Iraq, at a hearing on the administration's request for $20 billion for Iraqi civil reconstruction, the Wall Street Journal 's Neil King reports. Bremer likened the Bush Administration's plan for post-war Iraq to the Marshall Plan. Senator Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.) called the proposal "eye-popping."

In the midst of the berating, Bremer told the the Senate Appropriations Committee that the request was the best guess by the administration for what was needed, and that he didn't expect to be asking for more cash soon.

The Washington Post 's Jonathan Weisman and Juliet Eilperin look at the Bush Administration's request for money to rebuild Iraq's infrastructure before the Senate yesterday, taking a different snappy quote from Senator Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.). LINK

It's not just Democrats on the Senate Appropriations Committee who are balking about the cash - Republicans are getting nervous too.

"'Look at the needs we have here at home with our own roads, sewers and water projects,' said Senator George V. Voinovich (R-Ohio). 'It's hard to tell people there isn't money for sewers and water and then send that kind of money to Iraq.'"

Not to mention how it's going to sell in a presidential election.

The Boston Herald's Andrew Miga and Elisabeth Beardsley report that Senator Kennedy "yesterday hotly defended his attacks on President Bush's Iraq war policies." LINK

The Boston Globe 's Tom Oliphant writes up the Bush-Kennedy exchange. LINK

Senators Feinstein and Kennedy question the administration's nuclear weapons program in a Los Angeles Times op-ed. LINK

ABC 2004: Bush-Cheney re-elect:

The Boston Globe 's Peter Canellos has an interesting and very readable profile of the president, and he wonders if we'll see the president smile more often. LINK

Dick Cheney is raising money in New Hampshire today. LINK

"Paul Holloway, finance co-chairman of Republican State Committee, estimated yesterday the event will raise about $200,000 for Bush-Cheney '04. Holloway said the guests will pay $1,000 a person to attend the public fundraiser; for $2,000, guests will also be able to attend a private reception and have a photograph taken with the vice president."

"Within a few weeks, the Bush-Cheney '04 New Hampshire campaign team is expected to be announced. The Union Leader reported last month that Julie Teer, the current Republican State Committee communications director, is the front-runner to be the Bush-Cheney state director."