The Note
W A S H I N G T O N September 19—<br> -- Today's Schedule (all times Eastern):
—8:00 am: Senator John Kerry attends a Women for Kerry breakfast featuring Kathleen Turner, New York City
—10:30 am: General Wesley Clark holds a meet and greet at the Hamburg Inn, Iowa City, Iowa
—11:00 am: Congressman Dennis Kucinich attends a rally, Bangor, Maine
—11:00 am: State Senator Tom McClintock attends a breakfast meeting with the California Black Republican Council, Riverside, Calif.
—12:00 pm: Senator Bob Graham attends a campaign fundraiser, Gainesville, Fla.
—12:00 pm: Governor Howard Dean holds a town hall meeting on the economy, Berlin, N.H.
—12:30 pm: Washington Secretary of State Sam Reed will host a press conference announcing the state's strategy following the decision declaring Washington's blanket primary unconstitutional, Olympia, Wash.
—1:00 pm: Governor Davis campaigns with former Vice President Gore to urge voter registration prior to the September 22 deadline for the October 7 recall, Los Angeles
—1:30 pm: State Senator Tom McClintock attends a car tax abolition rally, San Bernadino, Calif.
—1:30 pm: Senator Bob Graham attends a campaign fundraiser, Gainesville, Fla.
—2:00 pm: Senator Kerry tours a factory, Paterson, N.J.
—2:00 pm: Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante discusses community college fee rollback at Los Angeles City College, Los Angeles
—2:15 pm: General Clark holds a media availability, Iowa City, Iowa
—5:00 pm: General Clark makes a speech, titled "The American Leadership Role In a Changing World," at the University of Iowa Law School, Iowa City, Iowa
—5:00 pm: Governor Davis and former Vice President Gore attend a voter registration rally, San Francisco—5:15 pm: Governor Dean attends the opening of campaign office, Dover, N.H.
—5:30 pm: State Senator McClintock visits the Maury microwave manufacturing facility, Ontario, Calif.
—6:15 pm: General Clark holds a media availability, Iowa City, Iowa
—6:30 pm: Reverend Al Sharpton holds a media availability, New Orleans—6:30 pm: Senator Bob Graham attends a campaign fundraiser, North Broward, Fla.
—6:30 pm: Governor Dean attends the Seacoast Democratic Banquet, Portsmouth, N.H.
—7:00 pm: Congressman Kucinich keynotes the Massachusetts Peace Action Convention, Cambridge, Mass.
—7:30 pm: Reverend Sharpton holds a campaign fundraiser at Pampy's Creole Kitchen, New Orleans
—7:30 pm: Governor Dean participates in a conversation on choice organized by Planned Parenthood, Hampton, N.H.
NEWS SUMMARY
Back about a million years ago (before Howard Dean was on "K Street," before the recall was a gleam in Mark Barabak's eye, before, even, Al Gore was publicly for single payer), the staff of The Note published on a semi-regular schedule our patented Invisible Primary Ratings.
The premise of the ratings was that — invisible to all but a handful of what Steve Elmendorf estimated was about 2,000 people — the contenders for the Democratic nomination for president were competing within a series of underground mini and virtual primaries that would determine their relative strength as they approached the actual voting of actual voters in January of 2004.
History records that the winner of the Invisible Primary in the year preceding the election has, in both parties, gone on to win the nomination every cycle of the modern era. With 2004's early-starting Democratic race, however, we dropped our ratings in the spring, since everything had become all too visible, well-chronicled, and fast moving.
However, with the advent of the Wes Clark campaign — overshadowing today in our world Al Gore's appearance with Gray Davis, the expected 9th Circuit ruling, and everything else in politics today — it's time to revive (for one day only) our ratings.
Or, rather, to deal with all the modern major General stuff that is out there today by looking at how Clark is doing in the various categories within which we previously rated all the candidates.
Those Dean aides who feel mighty frustration that we stopped publishing the ratings before Dean moved to number one with a bullet will just have to forgive us in advance.
First, let's dispose of Gore and the 9th Circuit.
Every sharpie in politics and the press knows that:
a. Gore will be boffo and funny and passionate today in his two events with Governor Davis
b. The 9th Circuit is going to announce today that they are taking the recall case en banc and that sometime next week they will overturn the three-judge panel and then the SCOTUS will refuse to hear it and the October 7 date will be restored
Which clears the way for us to talk about Clark, who in the last 24 hours flew to Florida (subjecting himself to a plane interview with reps from four of America' leading newspapers, during which he mightily muddied his war position); took at least five different positions on whether he would debate next week or not; whipped up a Clinton frenzy in the press and in Democratic politics; and continued to blot out coverage of his nine rivals.
Today, Clark flies to Iowa to give a paid address entitled "The American Leadership Role In a Changing World" today at the University of Iowa Law School. He also holds a couple of media availabilities.
One source tells The Note that Clark gets $30,000-$35,000 for his utterances.
On the one hand, Clark's moving around is creating a lot of excitement.
For instance, the last paragraph of the Boston Globe story about Clark's Florida event yesterday will make Mark Fabiani smile:
"'He's going to bring peace to the world, I'm telling you,' gushed Carmen Diaz-Fabian, who rushed up to Clark when he arrived, holding a handmade 'Hispanics por El General' sign. 'We haven't had somebody like him since Eisenhower.'"
From the Arkansas Democrat Gazette:
"Clark is expected to make a trip to Capitol Hill next week, speaking to the Congressional Black Caucus on Friday. … On Tuesday, Clark is to make a speech at DePauw University in Greencastle, Ind. On Wednesday, he is to meet with a Chicago securities firm." LINK
And the other campaigns are grousing about him and attacking him; and the list of names of Clintonistas who have at least gotten on his conference calls (if not necessarily offered outright support) continues to grow; and AFSCME seems Generally impressed.
On the other hand, The General up and announced what seems to be a new and Kerryesque position on the Iraqi war resolution — for it, but not really (Could he really have never been asked about this on CNN?); his campaign's disorganization (understandable) continues; some op-eds question his Bigness; and some key Iowans and Granite Staters are expressing skepticism.
Jackie Calmes symbolically leads the Wall Street Journal 's Washington Wire with a horizon tour of what Clark is doing to things, and gets some (first?) on-the-record reaction from a senior Bush politico:
"Gephardt camp welcomes retired general's entry, says he'll siphon votes from front-runner Dean, not Gephardt's blue-collar backers. Dean manager Trippi sees 'no sign he's slowed our growth.' After giving to Dean, TV producer and liberal activist Norman Lear sends money to Clark."
"Clark's debut gets weak reviews; a labor leader calls it 'more inspiring for who he is than what he said.' Clark says he'll try to be at a New York debate next week. One top Democrat says 'it's spectacular to have a four-star general' to jab Bush. Bush adviser Matthew Dowd concedes Clark's Southern roots could help Democrats beyond Republicans' Dixie."
"In West and Midwest, it would signal 'that the nominee is more moderate or conservative,' he says."
So see below for how Clark is doing in the key indices that will determine if he will be a player in the nomination fight or a strange interlude that history will record saved Howard Dean from himself.
The President has no public events scheduled for today.
Governor Dean campaigns in New Hampshire today, where he'll hold a town hall meeting on the economy in Berlin. He'll also be in Dover, Portsmouth, and Hampton. He holds a couple of fundraisers and campaigns in New York this weekend.
Senator Graham holds private fundraisers in Gainesville and North Broward, Florida, today.
Senator Kerry attended a Women for Kerry breakfast in New York City this morning and fundraises later. He campaigns in New Hampshire on Saturday.
Congressman Gephardt has private fundraisers today. He campaigns in Iowa this weekend.
Congressman Kucinich campaigns in Maine and Massachusetts today. He campaigns in New Hampshire on Saturday and in California on Sunday.
Senator Lieberman is in Chicago with no public events today. He's back in D.C. tomorrow with no public events.
Reverend Sharpton campaigns in New Orleans today. He's in D.C. and South Carolina over the weekend.
Ambassador Moseley Braun is in Chicago today. She will attend an awards ceremony with the National Organization for Women, but she is not scheduled to make remarks. She also appears on ABC News Politics Live today to talk about her formal campaign announcement scheduled for Monday. She will start in D.C. on Monday, travel to South Carolina, and finish back home in Chicago.
Senator Edwards tours the emergency response center in Raleigh, North Carolina, today and attends a press conference regarding hurricane damage. He's in San Francisco on Saturday with Governor Davis.
In the recall:
Governor Davis will campaign with former Vice President Al Gore in Los Angeles and San Francisco today to encourage voter registration.
Lieutenant Governor Bustamante discusses the plan to reverse the displacement of 123,000 community college students because of high fees today at Los Angeles City College.
Arnold Schwarzenegger has no public events planned for today.
State Senator Tom McClintock attends a breakfast meeting with the California Black Republican Council. He also attends a car tax abolition rally and visits a microwave manufacturing facility.
The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals could make a decision today on whether to rehear the ruling delaying the recall.
Clark, Money Potential:
Who is the campaign's lawyer? Where is Peter Knight? Are members of Congress helping him raise money? How much will he raise in the third and fourth quarters? How much will he REALLY raise on the Web?
All of these questions make this category a true work in progress.
Political reporters often forget to "follow the money" but Clark is working this angle hard, of course.
Clark, Message Issues:
By letting Adam Nagourney, Jim VandeHei, Johanna Neuman, and Joanna Weiss interview him on the plane to Florida (for somewhere between 75 and 90 minutes), Clark certainly shook up his place in the Democratic world. LINK andLINK andLINK
Everyone led with Clark's apparently new position that he would have voted for the war resolution in order to give the United Nations leverage (what is known among the cognoscenti as "Kerry VII" or "the Kerry Baltimore position.").
But there was more than that.
See VandeHei for Clark's apparent unfamiliarity with the Brady law.
And Nagourney for Clark's views of military spending, voting for Reagan and Nixon, gays in the military, and the president's request for funding for Iraq and Afghanistan.
And don't miss Nagourney's absolutely must-read passage about the first-time candidate calling for help from the first-time press secretary ("Mary, help!") during a tough moment.
Suffice to say, the message is a work in progress. Some of the other Democrats are amazed at the manner in which Clark is taking and (apparently) untaking positions.
Speaking of positions, the Miami Herald 's Wallsten and Bolstad interviewed Clark, with The General offering this on the death penalty: LINK
"At one point in the interview, Clark endorsed a moratorium on the death penalty, saying there has been ''a lot of discrimination and a lot of injustice'' and saying cases should be reviewed with DNA evidence. Asked if he would back a halt to executions, Clark sat up straight."
"'Stop. Stop,' he said. 'I promised I wasn't going to take a strong position.'''
We'll be sure to look at Clark's Cuba comments, too.
Writes one Democrat with national political experience:
"I have read the accounts of the Clark interviews and my reaction is despair and anger. Why did my party's best operatives think it would be a good idea to subject their neophyte candidate to the country's savviest reporters for over an hour? Why have my party's elders rallied around a candidate who is so shockingly uninformed about core issues and his own positions? I am not a Dean supporter — but I am angry that our party's leaders have anointed an alternative to him who seems even more ignorant and unprepared — and that this supposed 'anti-war' candidate turns out to have been in favor of both the war resolution and Richard Nixon!! And let's not even talk about the Clintons. Today I am embarrassed to be a Democrat."
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