The Note
W A S H I N G T O N September 17—<br> -- Today's Schedule (all times Eastern):
—8:30 am: Senate convenes for legislative business—9:30 am: Senator Joe Lieberman meets with local activists, Le Mars, Iowa—9:30 am: Senator Bob Graham attends a campaign fundraiser, Dallas, Texas—9:45 am: Off-camera White House press gaggle with Scott McClellan
—10:00 am: House convenes for legislative business—10:30 am: President Bush makes remarks at the rededication of the National Archives, D.C.—11:00 am: Reverend Al Sharpton meets with BET Chairman Robert Johnson, D.C.
—11:00 am: Vice President Cheney to the 2003 Air Force Association National Convention, D.C.—11:30 am: Senator Lieberman speaks to students about the job market and holds a media availability, Storm Lake, Iowa
—11:30 am: First Lady Laura Bush addresses the National Childhood Cancer Foundation's 2003 Gold Ribbon Days opening ceremony, D.C.—12:00 pm: Senator John Edwards holds a town hall meeting, Concord, N.H.
—12:45 pm: On-camera White House press briefing with Scott McClellan
—1:00 pm: General Wesley Clark makes remarks about his presidential candidacy at the James H. Pennick Boys and Girls Club, Little Rock, Ark.
—1:45 pm: Senator John Kerry and Governor Gray Davis tour a New Directions facility, Los Angeles
—2:00 pm: Arnold Schwarzenegger meets with immigrants after a citizenship swearing-in ceremony, Figueroa, Calif.
—2:15 pm: Senator Kerry and Governor Davis make remarks at a New Directions facility, Los Angeles—4:30 pm: Maria Shriver holds a press availability, Pacific Beach, Calif.
—5:00 pm: Deadline for California elections officials and recall proponents to file briefs in support of an appellate court review of the decision to delay the recall
—6:00 pm: Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante, State Senator Tom McClintock, and Peter Camejo participate in a candidate forum sponsored by the Los Angeles Press Club, Los Angeles
—6:30 pm: Senator Graham attends a campaign fundraiser, Weston, Fla.
—7:00 pm: Reverend Sharpton attends Tucker Carlson's book party, New York City
—7:30 pm: Representative Dennis Kucinich attends a rally with Ralph Nader and Patti Smith, D.C.
—10:00 pm: Governor Davis participates in a town hall meeting sponsored by the California Broadcasters Association, Sacramento
—10:00 pm: Wesley Clark is a guest on CNN's Newsnight with Aaron Brown
NEWS SUMMARY
What does The Note know about the Wes Clark (D-CNN) phenomenon?
We know that the media interest in his candidacy proves the political press is bored with the field as is.
We know that the Democratic elite interest in his candidacy proves that many of them — including members of Congress — are apparently underwhelmed by the existing nine candidates and are willing to support someone about whom they know shockingly little.
We know that the Dean campaign is the only one that will publicly claim to see strength in Clark's bid (Jo[e] knows Web grassroots.).
We know that those of you who failed to realize that there was a lot of Clinton-Gore talent out there who hadn't signed on with any of the existing horses weren't really paying attention.
If you are John Kerry, Dick Gephardt, Joe Lieberman, John Edwards, Bob Graham, or (even) Howard Dean, you have to ask yourself as you watch these officeholders, operatives, and fundraisers sign up with Clark (and, believe us, there are more eye-catching names coming), what the heck is wrong with me?
Am I too weak? Do I have too much the stench of the loser? Why are they signing up with someone they don't even know, when they could have me, me, me?
As for the motivations of these (largely) Clinton-Gore types — they all want to beat Bush; they all are totally turned off by Howard Dean personally and by his prospects; they have all lost respect for the rest of the field (because if they can't crush Dean, how could they beat Bush?); and they all (for whatever reasons) failed to find places in the other campaigns.
Oh, and most of them are bored in their lawyer, lobbyist, PR jobs, and this Clark thing looks fun to them.
We wonder how many of them have read this tip-of-the-iceberg George Will column. LINK
So far, Clark has not taken a single position on domestic issues that distinguishes him from the field, and in fact, he appears to be a garden variety liberal on the gamut of party touchstones. There are no distinctive policy positions, third way or otherwise.
And for an alleged straight talker, we wouldn't characterize his position on, say, the Bush tax cuts, as particularly straight or crisp.
And he certainly doesn't seem to be moving toward any sort of Sister Souljah moment.
Would Clark be a good president? His supporters obviously think so.
Would he be a strong general election candidate? Again, his supporters cite his Southern roots, military background, and outsider status as factors that they say would make him the strongest one to go against President Bush.
But to get to either of those slots, Clark first would have to win the Democratic nomination, and the existing nine aren't just going to roll over and let him take the nomination away.
In his full Ginsberg of morning show appearances, Clark was his usual newsless, pacific, aw-shucks self. Said he would have a health care plan soonish.
Isabel notwithstanding, we would bet that the cable nets (including the one which has paid Clark cash over the last few months and seems to have some pretty good access to him) will take his 1 pm ET announcement live from the James H. Pennick Boys and Girls Club in Little Rock.
Per ABC News' Clark reporter Deborah Apton, General Clark will not take questions after his remarks.
He will be introduced by former Arkansas Senator David Pryor and Arkansas Congressman Marion Berry. His wife and family will join him at the announcement. There will also be members of the Draft Wesley Clark campaign in attendance. The event is expected to be brief, most likely less than 30 minutes.
Clark is already talking about maybe skipping some of the debates because of conflicts, and the scrutiny of his past is going to ramp up fast (so it's nice to have one — two? — Master(s) of Disaster around … .).
This endless blather about whose support Clark cuts into makes us roll our digital eyes. Theoretically and thematically, one can make the case that he cuts into EVERYBODY, but he won't be doing any cutting until and unless he proves he can build support.
While the speculation that Clark could end up on the ticket as someone's veep candidate continues, keep in mind that many untested candidates who run for president do so poorly that they end up seeming LESS attractive as prospects for the second slot than they did before they ran.
On the other hand, if Clark shows some political mojo, he might raise his stock.
Rest assured, all the other campaigns and candidates will have to start answering the question "What does Clark mean for your candidacy?" as opposed to "What does Dean mean for your candidacy?" (and even Dean will have days and days of answering the former … )
See more below for all there is to know on Clark.
In the recall:
Prediction is difficult — especially about the future, as Yogi once said — but if you were the betting sort, you would probably see this as the most likely path and timing of the recall appeal:
The California secretary of state and the proponents of the recall, as well as the ACLU, which filed the initial lawsuit, will submit by 2 pm PT (5 pm ET) today arguments on whether the 9th Circuit should rehear the case en banc that was decided Monday by a three-judge panel.
The court will probably decide late this week whether to take it, and the betting is that they will.
If 13 of 24 9th circuit judges decide to rehear the case (the whole court is actually 26 judges, but two have recused themselves), then 11 of them will hold a hearing (the betting is that it would be on or about Monday) and render a decision by the middle of next week — fewer than two weeks before the election.
In the meantime, candidates and election officials are proceeding as if October 7 is THE day.
Even though the court grants rehearings extremely rarely, we would be surprised if the en banc court did not rehear the case, and we would be reasonably surprised if the en banc panel did not overturn the ruling. But that's just us — and frankly, for as much as we pretend to know, nothing is certain out west.
Whoever comes out on the losing side of all of this will appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court — but their refusing to hear the case is the heavy betting if the 9th Circuit overturns the ruling.
Today's 2 must-reads:
1. The San Francisco Chronicle on the latest Democratic presidential candidate Field Poll, with Howard Dean drawing nearly a quarter of the vote; "bad news" for John Kerry; and President Bush stuck at 45%. LINK
2. The reporter who got the first interview with Bill Clinton about Marc Rich (sort of) gets another big Clinton New York Sun exclusive, going to Monterey, California, yesterday to hear the former president to make provocative comments on: LINK
-- His wife's prospects for running for president herself in 2004 ("'I was impressed at the state fair in New York, which is in Republican country in upstate New York, at how many New Yorkers came up and said they would release her from her commitment if she wanted to do it,' Mr. Clinton said. 'But she said … she just doesn¹t understand how to walk away from that. So I just have to take her from where she is right now.'");
-- Wes Clark ("'Whether he can get elected president I don¹t have a clue, because once you've been a four-star general it's kind of hard to have people talk to you the way they talk to you when you¹re running,' Mr. Clinton said, adding that he had recently given General Clark some advice on how to adjust to life in the political arena.")
-- Karl Rove.
-- and more … .
President Bush is in D.C. today, where he will rededicate the National Archives.
Senator Kerry will tour a New Directions facility with Governor Davis in Los Angeles. They will make remarks together after their meeting.
Governor Dean campaigns in New Hampshire today.
Senator Lieberman campaigns in western Iowa today.
Senator Edwards holds a town hall meeting in Concord, New Hampshire, today.
Congressman Gephardt is in California with no public events scheduled for today.
