The Note
W A S H I N G T O N September 2—<br> -- Today's Schedule (all times Eastern):
—9:30 am: Senator John Kerry officially announces his presidential candidacy, Charleston, S.C.—9:30 am: Senate convenes for legislative business, D.C.—9:45 am: Off-camera White House press gaggle with Scott McClellan—10:00 am: First Lady Laura Bush meets with the New York City Teaching Fellows, New York City—11:00 am: Senator Joe Lieberman unveils his health care plan, Silver Spring, Md.—12:00 pm: Congressman Dennis Kucinich speaks at the University of Iowa, Iowa City—12:30 pm: On-camera White House press briefing with Scott McClellan—12:30 pm: Secretary Tom Ridge delivers remarks on reorganization at the Department of Homeland Security, D.C.—1:00 pm: Californians Against the Costly Recall holds events to preview its new television ad featuring Senator Dianne Feinstein, West Hollywood and San Francisco—1:35 pm: President Bush participates in the presentation of the first game football of the 2003 National Football League season, D.C.—3:00 pm: Congressman Kucinich speaks at Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa—6:15 pm: Senator Kerry officially announces his presidential candidacy, Des Moines
NEWS SUMMARY
Since there's that whole Labor-Day-kick-off thing, and it's the beginning of a very big month, let's clear the air with a very big a-hem of reality: the three biggest figures in American politics for the next five weeks will be George W. Bush, Howard Dean, and Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Sure, John Kerry (who meta-announces today) and the other Democratic presidential candidates matter mucho; as do Gray Davis, Senator McClintock, and Dan Schnur; and there are plenty of kings and queens of the Hill who will make a lot of noise. (And Rep. Bill Janklow's court appearance is scheduled for 2:30 pm ET today).
And world and national players who have any piece of the Iraq story, other international hotspots, or the economy are sure to be big players too.
But no matter what happens in war and peace and prosperity (and The Note will do its level best to cover those things as they intersect with politics), our Big Three are going to be the Boys of September and into October, after which, we bet the political world looks so different we will all be recalibrating.
Bush, because he's the commander-in-chief, because he's wrestling with the changing politics of Iraq, and because he has that budget deficit to deal with as he looks to get Congress moving on a legislative agenda headed by energy and Medicare.
Oh, and also he is the best political fundraiser of all time.
Dean because he is likely to raise twice as much (and maybe three times as much!) as any Democrat in the third quarter — which we'll know come mid-October, and that will be a political earthquake.
The Note is a big believer in the nearly iron-clad rule of modern American politics: the person who raises the most money in the year before the voting always wins the nomination (and Howard Dean will be that man).
Not to mention that come January, when everyone else runs out of time to raise money the old fashioned ways, Joe Trippi (after Dean is — inevitably — attacked) will put up the bat, says there are three weeks to go, and the money will pour in — whether Dean has decided to take the match or not.
And Dean matters lots because no one can give a linear explanation of how he's denied the nomination — he might not get the nomination, but can anyone write a simple sentence explaining why?
And Arnold Schwarzenegger matters lots because from Mary Hart to Peter Hart, he is an irresistible story.
For the next five weeks, we will struggle every day: do we lead with recall or do we lead with presidential politics?
Today, with John Kerry's announcement, let's go with the latter, and why should we be any different than the rest of the political herd: let's lead our Kerry coverage with thoughts about … . Howard Dean.
If Howard Dean stood 6 foot 4 tall, was the former two-term governor of Georgia and had even the barest of military backgrounds — and kept his exact message, he would be the odds on favorite to be his party nominee and would likely prove a strong challenger to George Bush in his general election.
Howard Dean can't raise his height, can't redo the past, and can't retroactively move to Atlanta.
Now that the biggest real poltick doubt about Dean has been put to rest — that he couldn't raise the money — the press has moved onto put other things to rest as well.
That his grassroots support was limited to cyberspace. That his staff wasn't professional enough to run a credible national campaign. That the candidate was undisciplined and unlikable. That he has no momentum outside Iowa and New Hampshire.
What remains is the electability question, which agitates the deep emotional cortices of Democratic voters and 49 percent of the Gang of 500 who share the party name.
Is Dean making progress on the electability front? More and more … It's not just that his stump speech is flashing its centrist blinkers. It's in simple accoutrements, like, say, a steady drumbeat of (somewhat) important, (semi-)resonating endorsements.
And in the dirty little (actually: "massive") secret of this stage of the campaign, the national political press corps is nearly united in its views that Dean (a) CAN be the nominee and (b) just might be the most fun to cover in the general.
In the face of all this, the once-upon-a-time frontrunner, Senator John Kerry will formally introduce his candidacy in Charleston, South Carolina, and, in doing so, launch a campaign to make the Democratic Party activists forget everything they like about Howard Dean and focus on one of the biggest issues of 2004 — which Democrat can present a credible alternative to Bush's leadership on national security matters.
Kerry's message to voters today is (sometimes) in many ways, an aircraft carrier is (not) just an aircraft carrier. And Howard Dean is what he is, too — simply not up to being commander in chief. Kerry is hoping that biography is destiny.
Including today, this next five weeks will see, to quote the Chicago Tribune's Jeff Zeleny: "three televised debates, three ceremonial announcements and, most important, a telling 30-day period for candidates to prove their viability before the third quarter of fundraising closes Sept. 30." LINK
Indeedy-do, September will flood your daybooks with debates, court hearings, announcements, conferences, meetings, fundraisers, big speeches, Web shindigs, and other electoral activity that's sure to make you forget whatever vacation you just had.
Some highlights are: the first two DNC sanctioned presidential debates in Albuquerque on the fourth and in New York City on the 25th, another Democratic candidate debate sponsored by the Congressional Black Caucus on the ninth, the Alabama tax referendum vote on the ninth, the Harkin Steak Fry, Senator Edwards' official announcement, several key recall dates, and so much more that you really should just plan to study our futures calendar at least four or five times a day.
This week alone brings some crucial developments in the Invisible Primary, most notably the first DNC sanctioned presidential debate this Thursday in Albuquerque, New Mexico. All nine declared candidates are scheduled to attend this event, hosted by Governor Bill Richardson and members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. The debate, parts of which will be in both English and Spanish, is expected to be a conversational affair on domestic and international issues.
ABC News' Tzemach reports that the Teamsters are celebrating their 100th anniversary this coming weekend in D.C. with a string of meetings and events which will be topped off by a dinner Saturday night at the Washington Hilton keynoted by Congressman Gephardt. Former President Clinton and Senator Clinton will be speaking in the afternoon prior to the big dinner, and/but they likely won't be there at the same time. Teamster organizers say they expect between four and five thousand people at the afternoon session, and slightly less for the dinner.
In the Recall State, voters will receive information in the mail from Secretary of State Kevin Shelley beginning today.
Also:
-- Governor Gray Davis' campaign unveils its first television ads to reporters in Los Angeles and San Francisco today. (See below for an exclusive preview.)
-- The debate over debates ramps up with Schwarzenegger's opponents urging him to show up to more than one debate.
Arnold Schwarzenegger does a pair of radio interviews on the Michael Medved show on KRLA and the John and Ken Show on KFI. He will also hold closed policy meetings with advisers.
Neither Governor Davis nor Lt. Governor Bustamante have any public events scheduled for today.
State Senator McClintock appears on KPRL's "Sound Off with Joe Benson."
Peter Ueberroth will also do a couple of radio interviews today. He's on KFI with Bill Handel and KTKZ with Eric Hogue.
This week, we'll see the first Kerry and Gephardt ads of the cycle.
On Wednesday, there will be a candidate debate without Schwarzenegger sponsored by the Contra Costa Times/KTVU-TV/KQED-FM. The Contra Costa Times reports that Governor Davis will answer questions about the recall for the first half-hour of the forum from local Fox anchor Dennis Richmond, a panel of journalists and a select group of audience members. Davis will then leave the stage and at least five candidates — Camejo, Huffington, McClintock, Bustamante and Ueberroth — will face questions from journalists and the audience for 90 minutes.
President Bush is in D.C. today. He'll host NFL leaders at the White House today to officially kick off the start of the 2003 professional pigskin proceedings. On Wednesday, he hosts Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende of the Netherlands for breakfast at the White House. The president goes to Kansas City on Thursday and Indianapolis on Friday to talk about the economy. First Lady Laura Bush will attend a Bush-Cheney 2004 fundraiser in Florence, South Carolina, on Thursday.
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