The Note

ByABC News
August 1, 2003, 9:57 AM

W A S H I N G T O N July 31&#151;<br> -- Today's Schedule (all times Eastern):

9:00 am: Senate convenes for legislative business9:00 am: Secretaries Colin Powell, Don Evans and Spence Abraham address the Earth Observation Summit, D.C.9:45 am: Off-camera White House press gaggle9:45 am: Senator John Kerry meets with workers to discuss the economy in Manchester, N.H.10:30 am: Senator Joe Biden delivers foreign policy address on U.S. policy in Iraq, D.C.12:30 pm: On-camera White House press briefing with Scott McClellan12:30 pm: Reverend Al Sharpton participates in a protest of MetroLink, St. Louis, Mo.1:15 pm: Senator Joe Lieberman makes remarks and holds press availability at a biotech lab, Lebanon, N.H.2:15 pm: Congressman Dennis Kucinich addresses the Commonwealth Club, San Francisco3:00 pm: Governor Howard Dean delivers speech on environmental policy, San Francisco4:00 pm: Senator Joe Lieberman participates in a roundtable discussion with warehouse distribution employees, Keene, N.H.5:30 pm: Former Governor Howard Dean, Congressmen Dick Gephardt and Dennis Kucinich, and Ambassador Carol Moseley Braun participate in the United Food and Commercial Workers presidential candidate forum, San Francisco6:10 pm: Vice President Cheney delivers remarks to the American Legislative Exchange Council, D.C.

NEWS SUMMARY

The facts of national political life:

1. The nation is badly divided, over both policies and President Bush.

2. The Republican Party is overwhelmingly united, first-most around President Bush, second-most around policies.

3. The Democratic Party lacking congressional majorities, bedeviled by hovering Clintons, divided over the meaning and power of Deanism is going to remain divided at least until it has a presidential standard bearer, and (depending on the skill and identity of said nominee) maybe beyond.

(If you wanted to put a human metaphor on this division, you'd need to look no further than last evening's .words between two perfectly lovely New England ladies, Dorie Clark of the Dean campaign and Judy Reardon of the Kerry campaign the must-read insider exchange of the cycle.)

Stirring the pot, just the way the RNC likes it, is the New York Post 's Deborah Orin, who says it now a "fact" that Howard Dean is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. See more below.

For more on (1), see the WSJ/NBC poll in the Journal, Al Hunt's column, the Nagourney/Shenon take-out on national security, and Norah Vincent's Los Angeles Times op-ed about extremes in TV and politics.

For more on (2), see that same Nagourney/Shenon article, the coverage on gay marriage, and more

For more on (3), see Invisible Primary below, for all the Kerry-Dean tussling.

Democrats can be heartened that at least now their presidential campaigns seem to have figured out that talking about the economy is smart politics.

Democrats can be discouraged by the fact that talking about the economy is for now crowded out by talking about who is "worse" on taxes, which Karl Rove might even prefer to Democrats fighting amongst themselves about the war.

The facts of California political life:

1. The state is badly divided between left and right, but the left is still bigger and knows how to handle the media with more skill.

2. The Republican Party's chances of taking over the governorship are going to be in suspended animation until Mr. Riordan makes a decision, and even then, there will be breath-holding over what kind of campaign he runs.

3. The Democratic Party has one week and two days to keep major figures off the ballot and that struggle is going to be a daily, intense one all the way through.

For more on (1)-(3), see our recall section below. Here's a short summary of yesterday's developments:

-- Representative Brad Sherman (D-Calif.) becomes the third Democratic member of the congressional delegation to urge Senator Feinstein to run on the recall ballot.

-- Governor Davis claims he will have "virtual unanimity" among Democrats on October 7.

-- President Bush claims to be an "interested political observer" when it comes to the recall, but asserts that it is up to Californians to decide what to do.

-- No official word from Arnold Schwarzenegger or Richard Riordan. However, the actor is still leaning against a run while the former mayor is continuing to meet with advisers about putting together a campaign team.

The president has no public events scheduled for today, but he will be happy about this:

Per ABC News' Schindelheim: "The first reading on economic growth for the second quarter came in at 2.4%, around what economists had forecast. First quarter GDP was 1.4%.Defense spending contributed a lot to the increase."

Schindelheim adds: "An economist did the calculations on the GDP and wrote, ' The leap in defense spending accounted for a stunning 70% of overall GDP growth in Q2.'"

In San Francisco today, candidates Governor Dean, Congressmen Gephardt and Kucinich, and Ambassador Braun will attend the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union forum. Senators Edwards and Kerry will appear via satellite.

The honorable Bill Press presiding.

Gephardt is expected to get more labor endorsements, with the worst-kept secret in American politics (the looming Teamsters endorsement) not expected for a couple of weeks.

Governor Dean campaigns in California, with a semi-major speech on the environment.

Senator Kerry campaigns in New Hampshire.

Senator Lieberman has a full day of campaigning in New Hampshire. On Monday, Lieberman will make remarks at the National Press Club's Newsmaker Luncheon. According to a campaign release, he plans to speak "about the future of the Democratic Party and his vision of a common agenda that can help unite the party and take back the White House." Just the thing to ensure a lively AFL CIO event the next day.

Congressman Kucinich addresses the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco.

Reverend Sharpton is expected to join a rally in St. Louis today aiming to disrupt MetroLink's 10th anniversary celebration.

Senator Graham will lead a press conference today to discuss the proposed legislation that would implement the recommendations of the House-Senate Joint Inquiry into the events of September 11, 2001.

Senator Biden delivers what's billed as a major foreign policy address on U.S. policy in Iraq at the Brookings Institution this morning.

California Recall:The Los Angeles Times' Michael Finnegan and Gregg Jones present a Gray Davis who is eager to convince anyone who will listen that Dianne Feinstein is on his team. LINK"In San Francisco, Davis said one of the Democrats in Congress who have urged U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein to join the race might soon 'take their comments back.' Feinstein, the state's most popular Democrat, has said she would campaign against the Davis recall and did not intend to run."

"'She's called me up constantly, telling me I ought to do this, do that,' Davis said on a visit to a shelter for battered women in Chinatown. 'She's called up other colleagues and told them to support me, and I believe we will go into this election with virtual unanimity in terms of Democratic support.'"

Mr. Finnegan and Mr. Jones also report that Representatives Dooley and Sanchez got company yesterday.

"But cracks in the facade of party unity grew wider Wednesday as Rep. Brad Sherman of Sherman Oaks became the third California Democrat in Congress to call on Feinstein to run. He believes 'the only way to boost Democratic turnout and defeat the recall is to get a prominent Democrat on the ballot,' said Mike Gatto, Sherman's district director."

The Los Angeles Times duo make sure to include President Bush declaring from the Rose Garden that he is watching the recall as an "interested political observer."

And Art Torres fills in for Garry South today for the "try to scare Riordan out of the race" quote.

"Torres signaled that Democrats could make an issue of Riordan's age and health if he enters the race. Riordan, 73, has undergone treatment for prostate cancer."

"'He's got some real weaknesses in terms of age and ability to run a state as large as California,' Torres said. 'You're going to have to have someone with an attention span larger than I think Dick has, given that he's been in semiretirement since he left the mayorship. I don't say that in a derogatory sense.'"

Of course not.

Carla Marinucci proves that you can do a star turn on Inside Politics and co-author a must-read story all in the same day. Ms. Marinucci and Mark Simon cover much of the same territory as their southern California colleagues in wrapping all the day's recall news into one packed story. LINK

"Davis downplayed the first cracks in the Democratic Party strategy to fight the recall as a GOP-backed effort, in part, by keeping Democrats off the ballot as alternatives to the governor. "

"'They understand this is a Republican cabal to undo a duly justified election.'"

Ms. Marinucci and Mr. Simon checked in with other members of the congressional delegation and were not able to find any other Democrat willing to jump ship yet.

San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown was asked why cracks in Democratic unity are beginning to appear. Marinucci and Simon write up the exchange and answer this age old question: How do you get a Gray Davis staffer to guffaw?

"Brown, in an interview with KTVU Channel 2, said the governor has 'zero personal relationships,' is cold and distant, and that 'people do not like him.'

"Davis tried to laugh off Brown's criticism as he stepped up his campaign to keep his job now that the Legislature has settled a budget deal almost a month late."

"'He said I wasn't warm and cuddly,' Davis told KTVU political editor Randy Shandobil, who had asked for a response. 'Come over here, I'll give you a hug' and he bear-hugged the surprised reporter as the governor's staff broke into guffaws."

The San Francisco Chronicle pair do a "in other recall news" roundup including President Bush leaving the recall up to the California people to decide. Richard Riordan continues his efforts to put together a campaign team, which may include Schwarzenegger adviser George Gorton.

Marinucci and Simon also report Riordan adviser (and Laura Bush press secretary) Noelia Rodriguez is suggesting the former mayor "distance himself from his Democratic advisers, political strategist Clint Reilly and pollster Pat Cadell."

Roll Call 's Paul Kane and David Perera do a masterful left-coast job writing up the mounting pressure on Senator Feinstein.

"'It's a very heartfelt vote of confidence and I'm appreciative of it,' Feinstein said of expressions of support from Reps. Loretta Sanchez (D) and Cal Dooley (D), both of whom urged Feinstein to enter the Oct. 7 recall election."

"'But I have no further comment,' she said, declining an offer to make any sort of unequivocal statement about the race."

Speaking of wiggle room, check out these quotes from one Senator Clinton and her former in-law Senator Boxer.

"Calling the entire situation 'such a bizarre circumstance,' Clinton said. 'I'm just going to do everything I can until informed otherwise to fight against the recall. Right now, as far as I know, we're all fighting against the recall.'"

"Boxer, who is up for re-election in 2004, said that the resolution this week of the state budget impasse, which shored up a $38 billion deficit, might be able to temper the situation and reinforce support for Davis."

"'We have to see how the public reacts. Let's just see how the public reacts. There's still time,' Boxer said."

Mr. Kane and Mr. Perera also suggest that if Dianne Feinstein became governor, she might appoint either Congresswoman Jane Harman or Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante to her senate seat.

The Associated Press' Erica Werner writes up Governor Davis' efforts to divert attention away from the issue of Democratic unity and on to the recently passed budget plan. LINKDion Nissenbaum places Arnold Schwarzenegger still on the fence and writes the lack of announcement from the actor is causing GOP hope that "he might pull a last-minute surprise." LINKThe Los Angeles Times' Claudia Eller and Michael Cieply take a look at what is ahead for Arnold if not the governorship. LINK

"With politics apparently headed to the back burner, according to associates, the actor will have to return his attention to one of Hollywood's most confounding tasks: how to become a fresh face without diminishing an aura built on the past. That probably will mean reaching out to filmmakers who once might have courted him, adjusting his screen persona and perhaps taking roles in smaller pictures that would showcase skills that may have escaped notice."