The Note
W A S H I N G T O N July 16—<br> -- Today's Schedule (all times Eastern):
—9:30 am: President Bush makes remarks to United States Attorneys, Department of Justice—9:30 am: Senate Commerce Committee holds hearing on proposed legislation to make permanent the moratorium on taxes on Internet access, Capitol Hill—9:30 am: Senate convenes for morning business—9:45 am: Off-camera White House press gaggle—10:00 am: House convenes for morning business—10:00 am: Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan testifies to Senate Banking Committee, Capitol Hill—12:30 pm: White House daily press briefing with Scott McClellan—12:30 pm: Senator John Kerry makes remarks on national security, Bronx, New York—1:20 pm: President Bush makes remarks to Urban Leaders, D.C.—2:30 pm: Senate Intelligence Committee holds closed meeting, Capitol Hill—2:30 pm: Senator Joe Lieberman tours a career center and holds press availibility, North Charleston, S.C.—4:30 pm: Governor Gray Davis holds press conference regarding the state budget, Sacramento—6:30 pm: Senator John Edwards discusses civil rights and voting with members of D.C. Democracy, D.C.—6:45 pm: Senator Bob Graham holds fundraiser followed by a concert featuring Ralph Stanley, Roanoke, Va.
NEWS SUMMARY
The poet Homer (or maybe it was the poet Homer Simpson) once famously said "it's funny 'cause it's true!" LINK
Another modern poet, David Letterman, said last night: "The country right now is at war, our economy is bad, 455 billion dollar deficit, and the Democrats are saying: 'How are we going to beat this guy?'"
The audience was silent, at first, and then, as the meaning sunk in, began to laugh, and, finally, applaud.
The good news for Terry McAuliffe and the rest of the Eviction Crew is that, like a car owner in Adams Morgan looking for a parking space, or an apartment seeker on the Upper West Side, or a spinster political reporter who doesn't believe in her heart the old saw about the fish and a bicycle, they only need to find one.
Which is to say: in the end, they only need one presidential nominee who has the capacity to beat George Bush.
The biggest change in Howard Dean's life this year (and, believe you us, there have been many) is that it is now very hard to find anyone in politics who doesn't believe he CAN be that nominee.
As we wrote the other day, most people involved in presidential politics believe that Dean could be the nominee or Kerry could be the nominee.
Then, especially if you work for one of the other presidential campaigns, you might think that some third person could also be the nominee.
Until yesterday, before his low (and lower-than-pre-advertised) second-quarter fundraising number, Dick Gephardt had been CW'ed as sharing the top tier with Kerry and Dean.
Gephardt in fact gets off somewhat easy in the papers today, but he still seems to be in trouble.
Joe Lieberman takes one of his semi-regular nasty newspaper hits, this time in the Los Angeles Times, for the overall campaign he is running, while his spending as a percentage of what he is raising is through the roof.
John Kerry got a little roughed up at the Human Rights Campaign.
Bob Graham's pallid fundraising quarter is dwarfed by the fact that the Establishment press has so discounted his chances of winning lately that they barely care how little a sitting senator (and former governor) from Florida raised. (He also gets swiped in the Washington Post by anonymous fellow Democrats for loose-lipping "impeachment.")
John Edwards' cash on hand, however, gets him back in some folks' first tiers. And he could certainly get elected mayor of Portsmouth, New Hampshire.
And we could all write it 1,000 times on our individual blackboards, but the president's fundraising advantage (and the ease with which he takes it in) is THE story of this cycle, no matter who the Democrats nominate.
Outside the Gang of 500's obsession with the fundraising figures, of course, the Letterman aphorism is vibrating intensely this news cycle, with George Tenet and Josh Bolten knowing JUST how Dick Gephardt feels.
In news about the California recall:
--51% of likely California voters are in favor of recalling Governor Gray Davis according to the latest Field poll. 43% are opposed to the recall.
--Former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan comes out on top in the Field poll among possible Republican replacement candidates.
--The legal and political rhetoric continues to heat up as the courts begin to weigh in on the petitioning and verification processes which may cause the delay Democrats seek.
-- At 4:30 pm ET Governor Davis will make a "major statement" regarding the state budget in Sacramento.
In Washington today, the president makes separate remarks to U.S. Attorneys and Urban Leaders.
His CIA director is on the Hill in closed session, and The Note is running a pool on how long after he finishes his appearance the first leak about what he said appears on the wire. E-mail us your guesses. politicalunit@abcnews.com
Senator Edwards holds a discussion with workers about his job growth plan this morning in Milford, New Hampshire. Later in the day, he'll be in D.C. to make remarks on civil rights and voting rights to members of the D.C. Democracy Fund.
Senator Kerry is in New York City to deliver remarks on national security.
Senator Lieberman campaigns in Charleston, South Carolina today. Hadassah Lieberman will campaign in Nashville, Tennessee, where she'll visit a food bank and have lunch with Democratic activists.
Senator Graham campaigns in Roanoke, Virginia. He'll be at the Winner's Circle NASCAR shop with Ward Burton, Jon Wood, Eddie Wood, and former Congressman Ben "Cooter" Jones. After a fundraiser tonight, there's a concert featuring bluegrass patriarch Ralph Stanley.
Governor Dean, Ambassador Braun, Reverend Sharpton, Representative Gephardt and Representative Kucinich have no public events scheduled for today.
*Source: Dan Balz, Washington Post, 7/2/2003 LINK **Source: Sharon Theimer, Associated Press, 6/25/2003 LINK
The real and continuing macro story line is reflected in the Balz/Edsall lead: "President Bush raised more money in the past three months than all nine of his Democratic rivals combined, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) yesterday, opening up a huge financial advantage that is likely to continue throughout the 2004 election campaign." LINK
But the press corps rightly, if not terribly aggressively, pays attention to Congressman Gephardt's dismal second-quarter haul.
Say Balz and Edsall: "The poor fundraising performance, coming after Gephardt raised $3.5 million in the first quarter, excluding money transferred from a congressional campaign account, prompted new questions about the former House Democratic leader's ability to generate support for his presidential candidacy. Gephardt entered the race with a reputation as one of the most prolific fundraisers in the party's history, but has struggled to attract donors to himself. 'This is not the end of the world. We understand we have a problem here, but we are fixing it,' said Gephardt adviser Steve Elmendorf.'"
"'Clearly, it has to be a disappointment,' a veteran of Democratic presidential campaigns said. 'Six million gives him plenty on hand, but the big question is how does it affect future fundraising and what does he need to do to restart the fundraising'"
The New York Times ' Nagourney catches an obvious but important point.
"While there are often discrepancies between the estimates campaigns put out after the filing period ends and the official filing, which was made today, Mr. Gephardt's aides were at a loss to explain the difference." LINKAn explanation comes, in part, from campaign manager Steve Murphy in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch:
"[C]ampaign manager Murphy denied any effort to pump up Gephardt's fund-raising figures at the end of last month, when most campaigns released their initial tallies. At the time, several news organizations reported that Gephardt had raised about $4.5 million, a figure attributed to anonymous aides. 'There was no deliberate attempt to mislead anybody,' Murphy said. 'We thought we'd have a little more coming in at the end than we did. We should have kept our mouth shut until we were certain.'" LINK
Nagourney does allow Joe Trippi to defend his candi..rival.
"'Joe Trippi, who is Dr. Dean's campaign manager and was a deputy manager for Mr. Gephardt in his unsuccessful 1988 bid for the presidency, said: 'I would not underestimate his ability to come back from this. He's one of the hardest workers I've ever met, and he's had a well of deep support and affection for him in places like Iowa where it counts.'"
Still to be asked and answered:
(a) WHY was the number so low? Who was supposed to give … and didn't?
(b) Do these numbers reflect continuing viability concerns among Democrats?
(c) Are even union members hedging their bets?
(d) What happened to that fabled, two-decades built up network of Gephardt supporters?
We also noticed that Senator Edwards's second-quarter number was about a half a million lower than we'd been told to expect.
"Shortly after the close of the second quarter, Edwards' aides started spreading the word that he had raised about $5 million during the period," The Raleigh News and Observer's Wagner and Krueger report. LINK"Jennifer Palmieri, a campaign spokeswoman, blamed the lower-than-advertised figure on 'a book-keeping error' that resulted in some contributions being counted more than once and some anticipated checks coming in just past the second-quarter deadline."
"'You'll see those donations accounted for in the third quarter,' Palmieri said. 'We're glad to have the money, regardless of when it came in.'"
Does that mean we ought to subtract $500,000 in our heads come October?
And shall we assume the trial lawyer pool is being tapped more slowly because of the on-going DOJ activity?
We can't link to it, but the New York Sun's Tim Starks has a great story about celebs and their donations.
It begins like this: "Comedian Jerry Seinfeld went for Senator Kerry of Massachusetts. The CEO of AOL Time Warner, Richard Parsons, went with President Bush. Real estate and casino magnate Donald Trump split the difference and went with both the president and Mr. Kerry. Whomever they sided with, many of New York's top celebrities and business executives jumped into the 2004 presidential fund-raising fray in the second three months of the year, according to fund-raising reports the campaigns turned in yesterday to federal election officials."
The New York Times ' Richard A. Oppel Jr. covered the money story from the angle of the Iraqis planning a war-crime court. LINK
DEAN
--Salaries plus payroll taxes: about $1.1 million. Fraction of total disbursements: about a third.--Travel expenses are low, low, low. Why? A Dean campaign (not so) secret: the candidate and staff stay with supporters. --Aside from salaries, direct mail was the second largest Dean disbursement.--Dean raised more than $100,000 from 10 states and more than $50,000 from 18.--The itemized Dean donor who comes first on the alphabet is David Aaker from Oneida, California. He lists his occupation as a "prophet."--According to PoliticalMoneyLine.com's tabulation, at least 792 attorneys, nearly 200 college professors, and 101 artists contributed.--Blue Cross/Blue Shield of Vermont was paid about $50,000 for comprehensive health insurance covering Dean employees.--The Air Charter Team of Kansas, City, Mo. handled most of the flying around. --There's also that $300,000 media expense we all know about.
The Balz-Edsall story has this to say about Dean and matching funds: "The Dean campaign said it received contributions from 73,226 individuals in the second quarter, and it estimated that more than 60 percent of the total it has raised this year qualifies for federal matching grants under the public financing program that provides taxpayer money equaling the contributions of $250 or less from individuals." LINK"The matching rate for Dean is much higher than the normal level which, according to the FEC, is usually in the 25 percent to 33 percent range. That will give Dean a built-in cushion in January, when the federal funds are dispersed, even if the other candidates outraise him in the next six months."
EDWARDS
--The campaign spent $21,000 on polling.--1,904 of 4,212 individual itemized donations came from attorneys; 9 were from legal secretaries;--Edwards raised at least $780,000 in California.--The Note was excited to see the smart traveling techniques … lots of Orbitz, Southwest Airlines, and a couple Travelocity entries.
Most of the coverage gives Edwards props for his cash on hand and total raised to date.
More from the Raleigh N & O duo: "According to a News & Observer analysis, more than $2.3 million of the $4.5 million Edwards raised during the second quarter came from lawyers, other members of the legal profession and those sharing their same home addresses — presumably spouses or other relatives."
"The ratio continued a general pattern that has existed throughout the political career of Edwards, a former trial lawyer."
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