The Note

ByABC News
July 2, 2003, 9:34 AM

W A S H I N G T O N July 1&#151;<br> -- As the awesome shock of Governor Dean's second-quarter numbers starts to wear off (or, at least, starts to become a comfortable part of the Invisible Primary furniture), the Big Think period begins, as we all try to figure out the myriad strategic and tactical implications of Howard Dean's rise.

2003 Note Archives, updated weekly.

Click here for The ABCNEWS Political Unit's exclusive major futures calendar and today's daybook.

E-mail us: Tips, Compliments, Complaints and Questions.

Who we are ... And What We're About.

NEWS SUMMARY

While most pundits and reporters this cycle struggle to simply count the dollars and change, two journalistas rush to the head of the "what it all means" pack: the Los Angeles Times' Z. "Mark Z." Barabak and the Washington Post 's Howard Kurtz.

They both have penned must-reads, suggesting that the Doctor is In .both good shape AND potentially looming trouble.

First, Mr. Productivity, Herr Barabak, says that Dean's stock is still rising, and one judges Dean by conventional standards at one's peril:

"The best illustration of Dean's appeal and the concern it has sparked among leading Democrats may have been provided by his appearance two Sundays ago on NBC's 'Meet the Press.'" LINK

"Such interviews are a political rite of passage and must-see TV for the insiders who frame Washington's prevailing wisdom. And by most accounts, Dean performed miserably. He bickered with the host, Tim Russert, evaded some questions and equivocated in response to others. Most egregiously, in the eyes of critics, he could only guess at how many U.S. troops were on active duty around the world and incorrectly estimated the number in Iraq."

"No matter, at least to some. In the days that followed, contributions to the campaign skyrocketed, according to aides. (The period also included Dean's formal announcement speech and efforts to build support through an online straw poll conducted by MoveOn.org, a left-leaning group. Dean won 44% of the roughly 300,000 votes cast, easily finishing first.)"

"'People watched [Dean's appearance on 'Meet the Press'] and said, 'Hey, there's a guy who admits he doesn't know the answer. You never see anybody in Washington do that,' ' said Joe Trippi, Dean's campaign manager."

"But as the appearance also demonstrated, Dean has managed to avoid much of the critical analysis that attaches itself to a candidate thought to have a serious chance of winning the nomination."

"The Dean campaign, for its part, pushed ahead with its next unorthodox move an Internet-based effort to gather tens of thousands of backers across the country Wednesday and have each pen a personal note asking a Democrat in Iowa to support Dean."

For the other candidates, it's not so clear how big a deal this whole Dean thing is, as evinced by two distinct views from within one campaign:

Gephardtian Bill Carrick shows Dean some respect via Barabak:

"'It's obvious that he's going to be a durable, long-standing player in this campaign,' said [C]arrick, a strategist for Democratic Rep. Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri 'It's still a long way out. The challenge now is for [Dean] to raise up his game another notch or two and show he can stay competitive.'"

But in an East Coast paper, Gephardtian Steve Elmendorf is nearly dismissive: Dean's success is a "'problem for Kerry, rather than for us'" and later adds "'I think you can overanalyze this If Dean raises $15 million on the Internet in the next quarter, then we'll reevaluate.'" LINK

Howard Kurtz says Dean is starting to get more scrutiny from the press, and gets a covey of journalists (Brownstein, Russert, Tapper, etc.) to talk on the record about their views of the Doctor's bedside manner (We are getting all the childish medical wordplay out of our system today .). LINK

But Dean campaign guy Joe Trippi is laughing all the way to the bank at the Washington/New York media types, who think their opinions of the candidate can stand between Dean and the back-taking of the country.

Howie then unreels three paragraphs so lusciously delicious that The Note mind staggers at their beauty:

"All this is a far cry from last year, when a New Republic cover story likened Dean to John McCain, or even February, when Meryl Gordon wrote a New York magazine cover piece describing Dean as a Jimmy Stewart figure. Gordon says she got along well with Dean, who drove her to the airport in Burlington, Vt., but there was a certain distance."

"'He's blunt, but that didn't bother me,' Gordon says. 'He is not a touchy-feely guy. With John Edwards, John Kerry, even Joe Lieberman, you'll get the hug and kiss as a female reporter. You don't get that with Howard Dean.'"

(Note Note: kissing aside, how much time should a candidate have to spend on relations with the Fourth Estate? Ask Bill Bradley. Or John McCain.)

"Trippi concedes that Dean 'is not your backslapping pol, he's just not. That's with everyone, whether you're a voter or a press person.' For instance, he says, Dean likes Newsweek's Howard Fineman but walked right past him at a recent political gathering. 'He won't do the gratuitous, "Hey Howard, how ya doing?"'"

Kurtz lists some of the tougher media shots Dean has taken, but the standards he is being held to are still lower than those faced by the other top-tierers.

When, how, and if that will change, and when, how, and if it will matter, is for now the dominant dynamic of the whole Invisible Primary (and if you are wondering if this is our nut graph, it is).

But the growing reality (known in Burlington forever) is that, for what Howard Dean needs to accomplish politically in 2003, it simply might not matter what the BosWash media Establishment has to say about him.

While (by our estimate) approximately 7,000 people ponder Dean's place in the meta-political world, in the REAL world, state budget crises, affecting the real lives of real people, are marching forward.

"Most Americans will escape major tax increases as 46 states begin a new fiscal year Tuesday by borrowing record amounts to address what the National Governors Association calls the worst financial crisis since World War II," USA Today Notes on the front page. LINK

"Arkansas, Nebraska and New York raised income taxes. Idaho, Nebraska, New York, Ohio and Vermont increased sales taxes. Eight states were still debating their budgets late Monday. Four other states begin their budget years on different dates."

New Jersey: the $24 billion deal is done. LINK

The Washington Post 's Rene Sanchez and Dale Russakoff chronicle the tick-tock negotiations. LINK

The fight over Democrats' tax and Republicans' spending cuts ended in down-to-the wire pacts in North Carolina, Nevada, Missouri and Rhode Island as well. As for the third consecutive year that California begins without a new federal budget, Sanchez will talk all about it today on washingtonpost.com: LINK

California, done in In CalPeeky style.

Up all night; no agreement yet: LINK

BUT they are close and arguing over a few billion (out of a $71 billion budget).

Republicans released a list of things they'd cut. Gray Davis responds: no way.

The Sacramento Bee has a short look at the repercussions:

"Without a new budget, the state is unable legally to make millions of dollars in on-time payments to schools, community colleges, courts, state suppliers and others." LINK

"The salaries of the governor, the legislators, state appointees and about 1,000 non-civil service employees will also stop Tuesday, although most of the state's 200,000 workers will continue receiving their full pay at least for now."

"State Controller Steve Westly says the state only has enough cash to get them through mid-August."

Political consequences: no budget = more hay for GOP recall effort. But some think the strategy could backfire, making Republicans in the legislature look like obstructionists.

In the recall story, the rest of the latest can be summed up like so:

Budget impasse continues; effect on Davis unclear;

Green Peter Camejo says he'll run to replace Davis;

Both sides staff up on election lawyers.

Richard Benedetto writes up the new USA Today /CNN/Gallup Poll showing confidence in the war slipping but support for President Bush still strong. LINK

"As the search for weapons of mass destruction continues with no major finds in Iraq and U.S. troops continue to suffer deadly attacks, confidence in the war effort is declining, a USA TODAY / CNN/Gallup Poll shows."

"Most Americans say things are going well for the United States in Iraq, but that answer has fallen to 56% from 70% a month ago and 86% on May 7, a week after President Bush declared combat largely over."

"The poll finds most people have confidence in the president's leadership and character, but there is erosion on those questions, too. His scores on being 'honest and trustworthy,' 65%, and 'cares about the needs of people like you,' 57%, are still strong, but both are down 8 percentage points from a poll in April."

"Analysts suggest that if the search for weapons drags on for months without success, if the U.S. death toll continues to mount and if Saddam Hussein is not found, critics will grow louder, support will drop and the public might begin calling for U.S. troops to leave Iraq."

Today, Senator Kerry heads to New Hampshire to begin a four-day swing.

Senator Graham is scheduled to have private meetings in Columbia, South Carolina today. Governor Dean has events in Iowa.

Danger, Will Robinson (and we mean the Democratic organizer, not the "Lost in Space" character): The Note writes about both redistricting AND the alternative minimum tax in today's editions proving we are more about education than entertainment.

Finally, a saintly one of you Noticed we've been using the past tense of "beget" improperly. Beget begets "begat" only when wrestled into the past. Our apologies.

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary, the money:

Although we don't have the final numbers for the second-quarter by any means, it is safe to say that there is

-- one (huge) political story: Inspiring protest candidate plus + Internet obsessed campaign manager = $$$