The Note

"More important will be what Dr. Dean has to say about other pending challenges to American foreign policy. What issues attract his attention? What insights does he bring to bear on them? Does he have any novel and plausible approaches to healing the breach in Transatlantic relations, to shaping a modus vivendi with Russia and China, to forging a more effective campaign against terrorism, to reinvigorating the faltering non-proliferation regime in North Korea and Iran, etc. The list is very long indeed."

The Note: Beyond the war against Iraq, are there divisions or schools within the Democratic party that you see on foreign policy? If so, where are they?

Frye: "In the general mood compelling Democrats to demonstrate that they are strong and reliable on national security issues --- not a new problem for the party but one greatly exacerbated by 911 — there seems to be a fault line, rather vague, between those Democrats who believe that the way to do so is by supporting large increases in defense spending and those who feel that the party now needs to emphasize a responsibly frugal approach to security investments. A main theme will likely center on tradeoffs between dollars for defense modernization and dollars for additional measures of homeland security. One may also anticipate a significant cleavage among Democrats over aspects of international trade policy, as one recalls from the party divisions over NAFTA and other such undertakings over the last decade when Republicans saved the deals in Congress by supporting proposals that originated in the past Democratic administration."

ABC 2004: The Invisible Primary:

USA Today 's Walter Shapiro looks at the "anything-can-happen" Democratic race. It's worth reading in full; here are some highlights: LINK " … it is hard to recall another presidential contest in which this many candidates were so tightly bunched at the half-mile mark with no clear favorite."

"Consider:"

"oIn the past six months, Howard Dean has transformed himself from an ego-powered dreamer into an enthusiasm-fueled candidate on par with his established Democratic rivals. Yes, other maverick candidates such as Jimmy Carter (1976), Gary Hart (1984) and John McCain (2000) have surged out of nowhere to upend a presidential race. But never before has a play-by-his-own-rules insurgent made a dash like Dean's so far in advance of the primaries."

"oNext week, the candidates will report their fundraising totals for the second quarter of the year. Five are likely to have each collected more than $4 million in the past three months, meeting the threshold pace for political respectability. Only Joe Lieberman, who is leading in many national polls, is thought to be battling an embarrassing financial shortfall. While John Kerry and Edwards are likely to continue to hold a fundraising edge, Dean, Gephardt and Bob Graham may come in with second-quarter figures close to parity."

"oFor all the importance lavished on Iowa's caucuses (Jan. 19) and New Hampshire primary (Jan. 27), this time three serious candidates boast strategies premised on waiting to make a breakthrough in the next round of Sun Belt primaries (Feb. 3). North Carolina's Edwards and Florida's Graham, along with centrist Lieberman, all hope to surge to the forefront with victories in South Carolina, Arizona, Tennessee, Oklahoma and New Mexico."

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