The Note: It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World

"Democrats concede their dreams of retaking the White House will end early on Nov. 2 if they fail to capture the state's 21 electoral votes," writes the Los Angeles Times' James Rainey of the battleground that is the Keystone State. LINK

Maggie Haberman and Kenneth Bazinet and Helen Kennedy think President Bush "appears to be conceding some ground in the hard-fought battleground of Pennsylvania, as the 2004 race, which has been fought in only a small number of states, narrows even further." According to advisors, he's not expected to return soon to the state that has beckoned his record setting 39 visits. LINK


Dante Scala's latest take on New Hampshire:

"If the President continues to perform weaker than nationally in the Granite State, how well might he have to do nationally in order to carry the state in three weeks? Let's take a quick look at the math and then call it a night; Debate Three (and Game Two) await in just hours, after all." LINK

"Currently Bush is polling two points below his national poll standing in New Hampshire (see below post). Let's assume this pattern remains static through Election Day, and Bush does two percentage points worse in New Hampshire's popular vote than he does in the national popular vote."

"Let's further assume that 1.5 percent of the popular vote in NH goes to Ralph Nader and minor-party candidates. (Currently Nader polls at 1 percent here.) That leaves 98.5 percent, and thus Bush or Kerry would have to win 49.3 percent of the vote here to carry New Hampshire and its four electoral votes."

"Thus, if Bush needs 49.3 percent to carry New Hampshire; and he continues to run two points weaker here than he does nationally; then he would have to win a little more than 51 percent of the nation's popular vote to take the Granite State."

"But if the President wins 51 percent of the national popular vote, of course, he has no need to worry about New Hampshire. In fact, the Granite State apparently becomes vital to his re-election only if he cannot manage to win 50 percent plus one of the national popular vote. But there is the President's Catch-22: if he cannot carry a simple majority of the national popular vote, then he will not do well enough here to stop Kerry from taking away New Hampshire, if the current pattern prevails."

With the count ongoing, "more than 300,000 new voters to the Colorado rolls this year" reports the Denver Post. LINK

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Jo Mannies reports that the Bush-Cheney campaign has officially stopped running ads in the Show Me state as of today and Notes "The DNC ended its ad buys in the state several weeks ago; Sen. John Kerry's campaign hasn't run ads in the state since July." LINK

Jim Morrill reports on the effort of North Carolina Senate candidates to take credit for this week's tobacco buyout: LINK

The debate heats up in Oregon on a ballot measure restricting medical malpractice lawsuits, James Mayer of the Oregonian reports. LINK

More ballot woes in Iowa: Lynn Campbell of the Des Moines Register reports on hundreds of voter registrations being rejected. LINK

Leigh Strope of the Kennebec Journal files this report on both candidate's job plans. The bottom line: both cost a lot of money, and both are flawed. LINK

George P. Bush kicks off his own stump sweep in Nevada for his famous uncle of the nearly same name. LINK

Iowa seniors want cheaper drugs, and they want them now. Jane Norman of the Register reports. LINK

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