The Note: Lying in Wait …
WASHINGTON, Oct. 25, 2004 — -- NOTED NOW
TODAY'S SCHEDULE (all times ET)
8 days until Election Day
NEWS SUMMARY
LINK
In her wrap of Kerry's Florida stops on Sunday, the Miami Herald 's Lesley Clark Notes that "a Herald/St. Petersburg Times poll released Sunday showed Bush with 19 percent of the black vote in Florida — more than twice the support he had in 2000." Caveat: high MoEs in subsamples. LINK
Adam Smith and Tamara Lush of the St. Pete Times wrap the weekend's campaign events with the new poll. LINK
Smith takes a closer look at the poll, with a lede that strikes fear into the hearts of many: "It looks like 2000 all over again." The horserace: 46-46-7-1 (Bush-Kerry-Undecided-Nader) among likelies. LINK
ABC News' own legendary Gary Langer makes an appearance in a polling explainer by the Miami Herald 's Steve Harrison. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Ohio:
The Cleveland Plain Dealer provides its readers with a primer on State Issue 1. LINK
Attention TV bookers and producers: Save this Ken Blackwell profile courtesy of the Cleveland Plain Dealer … you'll need it. LINK
Buried in the Cincinnati Enquirer story about Edwards' Ohio day is a brief reference to the pastor's 501(c)(3) comments. And there's also this little fun fact: "In the three weeks before President Bush came to Canton to talk about health care on Friday, Kerry visited six times." LINK
With one Sunday left to go, we urge all media: please hold both sides to the same standard regarding the co-mingling of houses of worship and political activity.
ABC News Vote 2004: Pennsylvania:
The Philadelphia Daily News' Brennan looks at the arrival of the person Gov. Ed Rendell described as the "single-best weapon" Democrats have to shore up their base, particularly African American voters in Philly. LINK
Senator Ted Kennedy's singing in Spanish in Philadelphia yesterday caught the eye of the Philadelphia Inquirer's Pompilio. LINK
Ah, the power of the unions. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports on union GOTV efforts on behalf of Senator Kerry, "As part of the largest get-out-the-vote effort in its history, AFL-CIO leaders here expect that by Election Day, its volunteers and paid staff will have reached all of the approximately 127,000 union members and retirees in Allegheny County eight times or more by mail, phone or personal contact." LINK
The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports that "Democrats have been stepping up appearances at black congregations in an attempt to boost turnout in a voting bloc that traditionally has been among its most loyal supporters." LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Iowa:
Tired voters in Iowa are counting down the days until the election, Notes Jonathan Roos of the Des Moines Register . LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Wisconsin:
The Wall Street Journal 's Davis and Hilsenrath take an excellent, front-page close look at Milwaukee's economy and the way it's being transformed from a blue-collar manufacturing hub to a market where hospitals, insurance companies, and a casino are the thriving money-makers. And while jobs in some areas are rebounding, rising health care costs, outsourcing, and wage cuts are balancing out the economic gains. The duo Note that last Friday's state and regional jobs report provides ammunition for both candidates and write that "the outcome depends less on the dueling statistics than on what voters in battleground states experience and think about the economy." LINK
This week, President Bush won't just drive through Cuba City, he'll make sure to stop. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: New Hampshire:
David Lightman of the Hartford Courant on why New Hampshire National Guard call-ups may tip the scales on November 2. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Nevada:
The New York Times ' John Broder has a good look at the lay of the land in Nevada, Noting the latest poll by the Las Vegas Review-Journal that gives President Bush a 10-point lead. Two words: Yucca and jobs. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Minnesota:
The Pioneer Press reports "the presidential campaigns are targeting new and prospective Hmong voters." LINK
A how-to for Minnesota voters on how to register on Election Day. LINK
The Star Tribune profiles the activists behind the Wellstone House of Organization and Activism who, among other things, have been working in the state to get John Kerry elected. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Michigan:
In addition to this evening's visit to Warren, MI, "The Massachusetts senator, who was last in Michigan on Sept. 15, is expected to return to Detroit on Saturday, said campaign spokesman Rodell Mollineau," reports the Detroit Free Press. LINK
The Detroit Free Press reminds its readers that Catholics make up 25 percent of the vote in Michigan. LINK
"Notes Michigan pollster Ed Sarpolus: 'History has said that for a Democrat to win, you have to win the Catholic vote by 52 percent.' Michigan polls show the race a virtual dead heat. Kerry had a small overall statewide lead in a poll of 600 likely voters released Friday by Sarpolus' firm, Lansing-based EPIC/MRA, with Bush and Kerry splitting Catholics at 47-45."
ABC News Vote 2004: Bush vs. Kerry: Iraq and national security:
The UN envoy to Iraq is concerned that a military offensive in Fallujah could further complicate Iraqi elections, reports the Los Angeles Times. LINK
The Boston Globe 's Farah Stockman explains how neither candidate's foreign policy proposals paint a clear picture of how American foreign policy would look in a Bush or Kerry administration. LINK
The New York Times ' Matthew Wald writes that reducing dependence on foreign oil is a perennial issue for candidates, but "neither public attitude, economic conditions nor technology provide a clear path for any major changes in oil consumption" — given that voters don't give it much attention as an issue. LINK
Greg Jaffe and David Cloud of the Wall Street Journal report that Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has instructed his four-star regional commanders to come up with new plans to decrease the likelihood of post-war instability as seen in Iraq in other conflicts. Among the requirements: better post-combat planning, and more involvement for the State Department and civilian agencies in the planning. LINK
The New York Times ' Erick Eckholm details the questions about Halliburton's contracts in Iraq and the Balkans, as raised by the top civilian official who deals with contracts for the Army Corps of Engineers, who has called for an investigation into the procurement process. LINK
The New York Times ' Phillip Shenon writes that President Bush yesterday called Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist and House Speaker Dennis Hastert to urge them to "get the intelligence reform legislation to him as quickly as possible" but that he did not weigh in on which version of the bill he supported. LINK
Bob Novak on Dick Lugar's true presidential preference. (Hint: he does not support Kerry.) LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: the Senate:
Whoops! "An ad placed by Republican John Thune's Senate campaign accidentally wound up appearing on private sites that weren't supposed to show it last week, including one with naked pictures of men that raised some eyebrows among Democrat Senator Tom Daschle's campaign aides." LINK
USA Today 's William Welch hits the trail in South Dakota to hear what voters think about Tom and John. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: the House:
The New York Times ' Carl Hulse looks at the race outside of Philadelphia between Rep. Jim Gerlach and Democratic challenger Lois Murphy. LINK
The front page of today's Washington Post declares in a headline that "Democrats Struggle in Campaigns to Retake House." Pianin and Babington write that despite strong Democratic pushes, "Republicans have overwhelmed the challengers with the power of incumbency, superior fundraising skills and hard-edged ads focused on such hot-button issues as terrorism and same-sex marriage." LINK Initiatives and referenda: The Wall Street Journal 's Kelly Rayburn looks at the collection of same-sex marriage, medical malpractice, and stem-cell research ballot initiatives. LINK The Wall Street Journal 's ed board weighs in against Arizona's ballot initiative that would ban undocumented immigrants from receiving non-federally mandated benefits. LINK Francis Fukuyama argues against California's stem cell research initiative on the Wall Street Journal 's op-ed page. LINK President Bush's interview with ABC's Charlie Gibson: In his interview with ABC's Charlie Gibson, President Bush was asked if he thinks about losing and answered: "I'm not there yet. I believe I'm going to win. And I'm campaigning as if we are going to win." Bush said the field of states that could help decide the election may be bigger than casual observers believe. "I wouldn't discount Michigan," Bush said. "I wouldn't discount the influence of Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota and New Mexico. I think this race is a non-predictable race. I think people like to boil it down to one or two states. I think you're gonna find there's a lot of interesting states … not considered to be in play." Asked if the cost of removing Hussein could ever become too great, Bush said, "Yeah, the cost is too great if the American President withdraws before the mission is complete. The cost is too great if you retreat from Iraq without completing the mission and the mission is to help Iraq become a free nation in the midst of the greater Middle East." Bush denied that Guard and Reserve members are facing a "backdoor draft," saying, "People signed up for the Guard and the Reserves knowing that they could be called up in action." Bush then recounted his experience in Bangor, Maine meeting with Guard guys that were called up and "they were enthused." Bush explained the moment in the St. Louis debate when he jumped out of his chair and bulldozed Gibson, who moderated the debate, as "the mother in me boiling to the surface." President Clinton's interview with ABC's Diane Sawyer: In an ABC exclusive, Diane Sawyer interviews former President Clinton about his health and his bout on the campaign trail this week. Clinton says for the first time in his life he's experiencing fatigue. When asked if it's too soon to hit the campaign trail, he says he had some helpful suggestions from doctors that he try to get places early so he can take a rest if he's tired. Clinton says in the next week Kerry shouldn't look for a silver bullet. He should just get out there and try to convey confidence and that he has very specific plans for the future, not just on the war on terror, but on the economy as well. On politics in general, Clinton says he doesn't feel the passion about the game that he used to feel but he does feel more passionately about the decisions people in office make. Senator John Kerry's interview with NBC's Katie Couric: In the past, when describing the real priorities in the war on terrorism, Senator John Kerry had highlighted Al Qaeda and Osama Bin Laden. In his interview with NBC's Katie Couric, he added Zarqawi to that list of priorities. Kerry said: "I will do a better job of focusing on the real war on terror which was not in Iraq. The priority is Al Qaeda and Osama Bin Laden and Al-Zarqawi." Kerry defended his criticism of Bush's "up in the air" statement to Sean Hannity, saying, "We won World War II, we won the Cold War, we know what we can do when we put our mind to it." Kerry thinks the election will be decided on Nov. 2 because he thinks Americans "don't' want a repeat of 2000," and therefore, he thinks they are "going to come out in huge number," and, referring to the Democrats, Kerry said, "We're going to protect people's right to vote." Couric asked Kerry whether his criticism of Bush's "scare tactics" was a case of "the pot calling the kettle black." Kerry said: "No. No, it is profoundly not at all." He went on to criticize a situation where nine out of ten of America's active duty troops are either in Iraq, going to Iraq or coming back from Iraq. He also criticized Bush's plan to partially privatize Social Security. Kerry was unworried about Clinton alienating some voters. "I'm running for President," he said. "Not Bill Clinton." Asked about Cheney's charge that Kerry is weak and that such weakness will invite terrorism, Kerry told Couric he wanted to look her and the American people in the eye and tell them that "unlike Dick Cheney and George Bush, I put my life on the line for this country. I fought for this country as a young man and I will fight for this country as President." He also touted his votes for the "biggest defense budgets" and "biggest intelligence budgets" in US history. Kerry reiterated his charge that Bush let Osama Bin Laden "escape and regroup" at Tora Bora and said Bin Laden is "now in 60 countries around the world." Just how amazing the American people are by and large. In Iowa, people listened with such intensity. They probe and probe before they make a commitment. The intensity is more than anyone can describe. Kerry said he has been exercising Kerry explained his comment that he was not changed by 9/11 by saying that he knew terror was a problem before Sept. 11, 2001, that he had written a book about it and that having been to war, he knew that this was something that "we have to win." (He said this even though when he came back from Vietnam he said: "How do you ask a man to be the last man to die for a mistake?" Kerry told Couric: "I knew exactly what we needed to do." He then segued into his Tora Bora attack on Bush. TODAY'S SCHEDULE (all times ET): —7:00 am: President Bush and former President Clinton appear on "Good Morning America"
—7:00 am: Sen. John Kerry and Vice President Cheney appear on "Today"
—8:20 am: Sen. Kerry holds a roundtable discussion with working women at Dover High School, Dover, NH
—8:45 am: Sen. Kerry speaks at Dover High School, Dover, NH
—9:30 am: Sen. John Edwards attends campaign rally in Toledo, OH
—10:00 am: Former Vice President Al Gore attends an early vote rally on behalf of Sen. Kerry, Coconut Creek, FL
—10:00 am: The National Association of Realtors releases the September report on existing home sales
—10:15 am: Elizabeth Edwards holds a town hall at Ohio University Southern, Ironton, OH
—10:30 am: Bobbie and Wallace Edwards vote for their son and Sen. Kerry at the Moore County Board of Elections, Carthage, NC
—11:00 am: Vice President Cheney holds a town hall meeting at Minnesota State University, Moorhead, MN
—11:30 am: Teresa Heinz Kerry speaks at Miami-Dade Community College, Homestead, FL
—12:00 pm: Biographers Justin Frank and Stanley Renshon speak about the personality and political behavior of President Bush at George Washington University, Washington, DC
—12:00 pm: Center for the Study of the American Electorate Director Curtis Gans speaks about "The Upsurge in Voter Registration and Expectations for Turnout in the 2004 Elections" at the Foreign Press Center, Washington, DC
—12:10 pm: President Bush holds a rally at the Island Grove Regional Park Events Center, Greeley, CO
—12:30 pm: Former Vice President Gore holds an early vote rally, Riviera Beach, FL
—1:00 pm: Sen. Kerry, former President Bill Clinton, and Patti Labelle attend a Fresh Start for America rally at Love Park in Philadelphia, PA
—1:30 pm: National security advisor Condoleezza Rice delivers the keynote address to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee's national summit meeting at the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel and Casino, Hollywood, FL
—1:50 pm: Sen. Edwards attends Fresh Start for America rally in Racine, WI
—3:30 pm: Elizabeth Edwards holds a town hall discussion on national security at the Dan Hansen VFW, Ham Lake, MN
—3:35 pm: President Bush holds a rally at the Mid-America Center, Council Bluffs, IA
—4:00 pm: Teresa Heinz Kerry speaks at the Cuban Club, Tampa, FL
—5:00 pm: Ralph Nader speaks at the University of Findlay, Findlay, OH
—5:15 pm: Vice President Cheney holds a town hall meeting at the Roberts Convention Center, Wilmington, OH
—6:00 pm Sen. Edwards attends Fresh Start for America Rally in Dubuque, IA
—6:20 pm: President Bush holds a rally at the River Center, Davenport, IA
—6:30 pm: Former President Bill Clinton speaks at an Early Vote Rally at Stephen P. Clark Government Center, Miami, FL
—6:45 pm: Sen. Kerry attends a rally with Jon Bon Jovi at Macomp Community College in Warren, MI
—7:30 pm: Elizabeth Edwards and Christie Vilsack holds a "Fresh Start for America" rally at the Ottumwa School Board Offices, Ottumwa, IA
—8:00 pm: Sens. Chris Dodd and John McCain and entertainers Dan Aykroyd, Candice Bergen, Chevy Chase, Darrell Hammond, Tina Fey, Steve Martin, Tim Meadows, Conan O'Brien, Molly Shannon, David Spade, Christopher Walken, and Paul Simon present Lorne Michaels the "Mark Twain Prize" for American humor at the Kennedy Center, Washington, DC
—8:00 pm: Ralph Nader speaks at the First Unitarian Church, Detroit, MI
—9:00 pm: President Bush appears on Hannity & Colmes (taped)
—9:00 pm: Sen. Edwards, Vanessa Kerry, and Alexandra Kerry appear on "Larry King Live"
—10:45 pm: Sen. Kerry holds a Fresh Start for America rally in the parking lot of the Radisson Hotel, Green Bay, WI
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