The Note: Everything Is Relational

The seminal study in this area was performed by Yale University economist Ray Fair, who studied presidential elections back to 1916 and found that a model that used economic data to predict the outcome nailed every election except for Bill Clinton's victory of 1992. Fair's model also had a fairly high margin of error in the 2004 election, yet he still accurately predicted President George W. Bush as the eventual winner. His model gets the most bang for the buck out of inflation and gross domestic product. When these are doing well, incumbent parties tend to win."

The Washington Post's Julie Ziegler and Andy Critchlow report that OPEC has decided to cut oil output by one million barrels a day; however, it was not immediately clear if that would have a significant affect on prices. LINK

2006: landscape:

The Washington Post's Shailaigh Murray reports on Democrats chances in the upper South, focusing on the Senate campaign in Missouri of Claire McCaskill, challenging Republican incumbent Jim Talent. LINK

Writes Murray, "Missouri is an ideal laboratory to see if the experiment can work. For decades, the Democratic formula for winning the Show-Me State was simple: Win big in the urban hubs of St. Louis and Kansas City. But that approach only works by not losing big in the rest of the state."

The Wall Street Journal's Amy Schatz looks at the YouTube effect on the 2006 midterm elections, highlighting the effectiveness of such videos against Sen. Conrad Burns (R-MT) and Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA). LINK

2006: House:

Des Moines Register's Tom Witosky reports that congressional candidates Mike Whalen and Bruce Braley will debate tonight. LINK

Larry Eichel of the Philadelphia Inquirer Notes that the Foley scandal has made the GOP bastion PA-10 a competetive race, as voters grapple with "a Clintonian question and whether or not Rep. Don Sherwood's (R-PA) affair with a younger woman is enough to boot him from his seat. LINK

The Hartford Courant on Sen. Clinton raising coin for Democrat Diane Farrell. LINK

2006: Senate:

Sen. Allen owns stock options in a company and failed to disclose it as a part of his financial disclosure required by Senate rules, reported the Associated Press over the weekend. LINK

The Washington Times' Christina Bellantoni previews today's debate between Allen and Webb. LINK

"Talent stresses independence from Bush," Washington Times. LINK

The Newark Star Ledger examines how immigration is playing in the New Jersey Senate race. LINK

The Philadelphia Inquirer's Budoff writes that the race between Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) and Democratic opponent Bob Casey has become "boring," as Santorum is running out of time to stage a comeback and Democratic opponent Bob Casey is keeping a low profile. LINK

2006: Governor:

The Los Angeles Times' Mark Z. Barabak reported on Sunday that "for the first time since the 1994 Republican landslide, Democrats are poised to attain a majority of the nation's governorships, an important political toehold regardless of who wins the battle to control Congress." LINK

On Saturday, the Boston Globe reported on Deval Patrick's (D-MA) pledge not to run negative ads during his gubernatorial campaign against Lt. Gov. Healey (R-MA). LINK

On Sunday, Boston Globe columnist Eileen McNamara chastised Healey for a campaign based on cynicism and scare tactics. LINK

In Michigan's unique gubernatorial contest, it's all about the economy. The New York Times' Monica Davey takes a closer look. LINK

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