The Note: Stop Reading Polls

"The GOP now seems certain to give the House away. Democrats need to pick up 15 seats for control. They'll get that -- and up to 20 more. Republicans will take a pounding in the Northeast, losing House seats in Connecticut, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania. Some GOP seats in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Ohio, Texas and Washington will also switch hands," writes Richard Sammon on KiplingerForecasts.com LINK

Roll Call's Lauren Whittington writes that voters in New Mexico, Arizona and Nevada are not necessarily ready to embrace Democrats but they are mad with the GOP on spending and other issues.

William Weir and Jesse Leavenworth of the Hartford Courant discuss the alleged increase in negative ads, "you have people today say it was disgusting, that it was untrue -- but you know what? It really worked." LINK

"Sen. Charles E. Schumer, chairman of the [DSCC], says he is just as surprised as anyone that Democrats have a legitimate shot at taking control of the Senate in the November election," writes Eric Pfeiffer of the Washington Times. LINK

2006: House: CT-05:

Hartford Courant's Rinker Buck reports that Rep. Nancy Johnson (R-CT) launches a new ad that is reminiscent of The Daily Show. LINK

2006: House: KY-04:

Bob Novak of the Chicago Sun-Times, who seems unsure of who will be in the majority come January, highlights the race in Kentucky's 4th District between Rep. Geoff Davis (R) and Democratic Candidate Ken Lucas ultimately concluding that "A victory by Lucas probably would be part of a Democratic wave and a Republican disaster. A win by Davis would entrench a Republican conservative in Congress far into the future. It would also mark the limits of nationalizing congressional elections." LINK

2006: House: NY:

Raymond Hernandez of the New York Times writes up the competitive House races in upstate New York which seem to be a bit more competitive of late than they were at Labor Day. Hernandez places the open seat in New York's 24th congressional district and Tom Reynolds' seat in the 26th district as the most vulnerable GOP seats. LINK

2006: House: OH-15:

The Washington Times' Stephen Dinan reports on the re-election campaign of Rep. Deborah Pryce, and Ohio elections in general, Noting "It promises to be a watershed election for Ohio. If Democrats do well, it means this state is the ultimate swing state. But the elections will cement Ohio's Republican credentials if the Democrats fail to capture any of the major prizes." LINK

2006: Senate: Tennessee:

In an article slugged "Republican's Hold on the South Gets Test in Tennessee," the Wall Street Journal's Corey Dade and Nikhil Deogun look at the changing demographic of the "upper south" where the population of non-native residents has increased dramatically over the last 15 years and could be eroding the Republican stronghold. LINK

Robin Toner of the New York Times writes up the "furor" surrounding the RNC ad with a blonde actress playing a woman who says she met Harold Ford at a Playboy party and urges him to call her. The people at the RNC independent expenditure refused to comment for the story and RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman tells Toner he does "not believe that this would damage his Republican outreach efforts." LINK

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