The Note: Polls Versus Guts

Joe Garofoli of the San Francisco Chronicle acknowledges that "If Nancy Pelosi becomes speaker of the House, it will be on the Republicans' list of top five talking points every week" as her " San Francisco values" will run the House. LINK

The Way to Win:

Michiko Kakutani of the New York Times weighs in this morning with a review of the Mark Halperin/John Harris book The Way to Win: Taking the White House in 2008, calling it "smart" and "savvy," and saying the book is "revealing, shedding retrospective light on Mr. Bush's victories in 2000 and 2004, and casting new light on the possible outcome of next week's midterm elections." LINK

Sounds like Note readers should spend the weekend curled up with it -- buy your copy here. LINK

2006: landscape:

The Note has (re)learned that the DCCC is spending in some 50 races in 26 states in the closing days.

The Washington Post's Jonathan Weisman and Chris Cillizza report that financial reports filed yesterday with the Federal Election Commission showed that, "on Wednesday alone," the DCCC spent "$12.4 million on advertising in 36 districts"; the NRCC spent "$5.9 million on commercials in 17 districts." LINK

According to Evan Tracey of the Campaign Media Analysis Group, the final thrust of campaign ads will "boost spending on political and issue advertising past $2 billion in this campaign, or $400 million more than in the 2004 presidential campaign."

As for President Bush's travel schedule, the Washington Post duo Note that "the 10 states the president plans to visit before Tuesday's elections all voted for Bush in 2004; he is staying away from battleground states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and Virginia, where many Republican candidates would rather not campaign with him at this late hour."

Democrats have been very competitive this campaign season partly because they've taken financial gambles like when in late October DNC chairman Howard Dean took out a $10 million line of credit reports Mike Dorning of the Chicago Tribune who also Notes that the GOP still holds the lead in campaign cash. LINK

Michael Paulson of the Boston Globe Notes, "Republicans are furiously trying to reenergize the so-called values voters, predominantly evangelical Protestants who helped propel President Bush to victory in 2004 but have since then become disenchanted with the GOP." LINK

Anne Kornblut and Carl Hulse of the New York Times write up the Senate landscape including a tightened race in Montana as well as some new activity in Arizona and Maryland. LINK

The New York Times takes a look at the Democratic side of the "culture of corruption," but Monica Davey reports that scandal doesn't seem to have the same impact with Democrats as it does with Republicans this year, taking specific Note of Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D-IL) and Gov. Jim Doyle (D-WI). LINK

The Washington Post's Robert Barnes and Matthew Mosk report that the Maryland exurbs of DC will be watched to see if they are becoming more Red and the Virginia exurbs will be watched to see if they are becoming more Blue. LINK

2006: campaign advertising:

Susan Page of USA Today reports on the "toxicity" of politicians on air political ads which are storming the airwaves. LINK

Ralph Blumenthal of the New York Times reports on the lack of creativity, or at least a small pool of writers, when it comes to campaign ads. LINK

2006: House:

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