The Note: Follow My Lead, Oh, How I Need

— -- WASHINGTON, Jan. 31

The Republic faces a number of challenges, but it is becoming more true -- rather than less true -- that the politics of 2007 and 2008 are being shaped by exactly one issue.

Senate Democrats, per a must-read Washington Post tone poem, are closely watching their Republican counterparts on Iraq. LINK

But also:

Clinton is closely watching Obama on Iraq. LINK

Bush (and Cheney) are closely watching Rep. Boehner to see if he goes squishy on Iraq.

Doves are closely watching Pelosi -- later today headed to the White House to team up with the President -- to see if she goes squishy on Iraq.

Biden, via some spicy New York Observer quotes about Clinton and Edwards, is trying to get people to closely watch him on Iraq. LINK

Edwards, with some spicy quotes of his own, is closely watching Clinton watching Obama on Iraq. LINK

Sharp Republican strategists -- watching Sen. McCain, Romney, and Giuliani hug Bush's policy -- wonder when one of them will have the nerve/sense/guts to deviate on Iraq.

The Republican National Committee is watching Obama's new troop withdrawal plan on Iraq. (Thus begging the question: will the RNC try to open up Illinois' Junior Senator on this issue -- as they would a Clinton, or even a McAuliffe? Or are they deliberately going easy on him so that they don't neuter his ability to cause Clinton trouble?)

On "Good Morning America," Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE), whose solution to The Problem is partition, told ABC News' Diane Sawyer, "I'm not exploring. I'm in. And it's the start of a marathon."

The Biden campaign has launched its website this morning at www.joebiden.com">LINK.At about 10:00 am ET, on the site's front page, the Senator's video statement will launch. Then, later in the day, Sen. Biden plans to hold a press conference call at about 2:15 pm ET before heading to New York City to tape the "Daily Show." (He'll also work in some Senate Foreign Relations Committee business this morning with former Secretaries of State Albright and Kissinger appearing as witnesses. The hearing was scheduled to get underway at 9:15 am ET.)

President Bush, whose solution to The Problem is a surging David Petraeus, delivers remarks on the economy at 11:05 am ET at Federal Hall in New York City. Mr. Bush later appears in a taped interview on Fox News Channel's "Your World with Neil Cavuto" at 4:00 pm ET.

And/but the President's schedule again seems to indicate awareness at 1600 that even a big economic speech in the financial capital of the world won't knock The Problem out of the headlines.

ABC News' Jessica Yellin reports that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and her Iraq CODEL meet with the President at the White House at 3:50 pm ET. White House Deputy Press Secretary Dana Perino tells Yellin, "Yesterday afternoon the President had a good phone conversation with Sen. Reid and Speaker Pelosi and they agreed to put together a bipartisan War on Terror working group."

The group's first meeting will be next week, adds Yellin. Will this meeting produce comity? Results? Agreements about agreements? Could it be the start of a beautiful, bipartisan friendship? Stay tuned for the body language. Hint: no stakeout appearance by the Speaker would be a good sign for those who want a deal.

On the President's Gotham jaunt, ABC News' Ann Compton reports, "The economic speech is now scheduled to last 50 minutes, making it almost full State of the Union-size. 150 NYC guests are expected and Mayor Bloomberg will introduce him."

"Then in other rooms at Federal Hall, President Bush will be interviewed by the Wall Street Journal editorial board and he will meet privately with Caesar Borja Jr who was Senator Clinton's guest at State of the Union, the day his firefighter father died of 9-11 related illnesses."

Journalisto Matt Cooper is expected to take center stage at the Libby trial today.

Sens. Cornyn (R-TX) and DeMint (R-SC) holds a pen and pad in the Senate print gallery at 10:00 am ET to discuss the Iraq resolutions.

Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) delivers the keynote address at the "Ten Big Ideas for a New America" policy forum at the Hyatt Regency Washington on Capitol Hill at 11:00 am ET.

Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) is in Michigan today where he plans to deliver a speech entitled "The Proper Role of the Judiciary" at Ave Maria School of Law at 11:00 am ET in Ann Arbor, MI. Brownback also keynotes at the Michigan Society of Association Executives at The Lansing Center at 1:30 pm ET in Lansing, MI. Later, the Senator holds a media availability at the Hilton Grand Rapids Airport at 4:15 pm ET in Lansing, MI.

Former Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) holds a town hall on America's role in the world at 2:30 pm ET at the Hopkins Center at Dartmouth College in Hanover, NH.

The Senate Armed Services Committee holds a closed full committee hearing on the Iraq "surge" at 10:00 am ET.

House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) holds a 2:00 pm ET on camera press availability in the House studio.

Gov. Jim Doyle (D-WI) meets with the Senate Democratic Caucus where he plans to discuss stem cell research and then will make remarks at 1:00 pm ET at the Center for American Progress in Washington, DC.

Former President Bill Clinton is scheduled to appear at an event honoring supporters of the "American Veterans Disabled for Life Memorial" at 6:00 pm ET at the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center in Washington, DC.

The Creative Coalition holds a "Welcome Back Celebration: A Tribute to the 110th Congress" at B. Smith's Union Station at 8:00 pm ET in Washington, DC. Participants include: Sens. Mary Landrieu (D-LA), Max Baucus (D-MT), House Government Reform Chairman Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA), Rep. Mary Bono (R-CA), Heather Graham, Bridget Moynahan, Fran Drescher and other politicians and celebrities.

Today is Harriet Miers' last day as White House counsel.

Politics of Iraq:
The New York Times' Carl Hulse and Thom Shanker have a front-page look at President Bush's Senate GOP allies' efforts to block a vote on the nonbinding rejection of President Bush's troop increase plan. LINK

The division within the conference in that closed door policy luncheon yesterday clearly was a bit too great to remain behind closed doors. Sen. Specter practically broke down in tears within the Situation Room in recounting it to Rabbi Confessor Blitzer.

After initially aiming to rally around a single resolution that would allow the party's senators to express doubts about the plan without stating their outright opposition, the Washington Post's Jonathan Weisman and Shailagh Murray report that Republicans appear to be "balkanizing," with at least five Republican drafts now in play and more GOPers stating their reservations. LINK

"The admiral picked by President Bush to oversee his new strategy for Iraq testified yesterday that he does not know much about the plan that the administration says will determine whether the U.S. wins the war," reports the Washington Times' Rowan Scarborough and Charles Hurt. LINK

USA Today's Richard Wolf reports on the efforts of some House Democrats to redirect funds intended for Iraq to "military readiness at home." Rep. John Murtha (D-PA), defense budget subcommittee chairman, said, "We've got problems in our own country. We're going to check every cent that's spent by the United States government" in the war on terrorism. LINK