THE NOTE: Opening Night for Thompson

October 9, 2007 — -- Bookmark The Note at http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/TheNote/story?id=3105288&page=1

Just in time for Fred Thompson to enter (stage right), here's a handy cheat sheet for him, in case he's been too busy chillin' with George Allen, Liz Cheney, and Spencer Abraham to bone up on the gang he's sharing the spotlight with this afternoon:

Rudy Giuliani will be the guy who speaks too fast (though no longer too loose). Likes to talk about: 9/11, tax cuts, the Yankees (though maybe not so much today), Hillary Clinton. Doesn't like to talk about: abortion, gun control, lightning, James Dobson.

Mitt Romney will be the guy with the million-dollar smile (and multi-million-dollar wallet). Likes to talk about: the Olympics, tax cuts, his hair, abortion (now). Doesn't like to talk about: abortion (circa 1994 and 2002), religion (his own), car trips with pets.

John McCain is the guy who looks like John McCain. Likes to talk about: drunken sailors, the "Straight Talk Express," "my friends." Doesn't like to talk about: immigration, fund-raising, polls, George W. Bush.

Mike Huckabee is the funny one -- laugh at his jokes. Ron Paul will say something about the Framers -- probably best to condemn it. Sam Brownback is the religious one -- nod approvingly when he speaks. Tom Tancredo will link immigration to a question about the nuclear non-proliferation -- agree with him, though not too vigorously. Duncan Hunter is also a candidate for president. No, we're serious, he is.

As for you, Fred, you're the star -- for better or worse. Name your acting cliché -- it's showtime, opening night, the big debut, and Thompson, R-Tenn., needs to break a leg. Will he dazzle the crowd with a mastery of details matched only by his physical presence, as he looms over a stage populated by semi-anonymous white men? Or will he stammer something about "American values" and crack a flat joke about the good ol' days, while flubbing questions on the AMT and welfare reform?

Here's already been panned by everyone from Robert Novak and George Will (and Richard Nixon) to the writers on "Saturday Night Live." Now -- in part because he waited as long as he did to jump into the race, and in part because these sorts of forums need to belong to him -- Thompson will be judged harshly on his performance.

ABC's Christine Byun sees Thompson downplaying expectations (is that really necessary in this case?): "I am a little -- probably a little rusty -- on my sound-bite responses," Thompson told reporters. "These other guys are polished, they're very smooth in their responses, they've had a lot of practice, so I just hope I can hang in there with them." Byun points out that his speaking style hasn't won him rave reviews yet -- but at least he's used to speaking without notes.

Look for some policy specifics -- and, of course, plenty of style -- when Thompson takes the stage. "I think our goals are to look presidential and to build on this feeling that people feel comfortable with this notion of Fred Thompson as president," Bill Lacy, Thompson's campaign manager," told The Tennessean's Bill Theobald. "And to look substantive." (Is that different than BEING substantive?)

"Much of the focus will be on the former actor and whether he can seize the moment, not only to distinguish himself from the rest of the field but also to rebut accusations that he is too lazy, too ill-prepared and too vague to be the GOP nominee," writes The Washington Post's Michael Shear. But it's just remotely possible that a candidacy won't be made or broken at an economic debate in Michigan that airs on CNBC at 4 pm ET on a Tuesday. Adds Richard Land of the Southern Baptist Convention (who always seems to have nice things to say about Thompson): "He may have Reagan's Teflon quality."

Maybe the low expectations are just what the doctor (or the admiral) ordered. "All he has to do is not fall asleep. All he has to do is not throw up. All he has to do is not drool," Politico's Roger Simon writes. "Never has there been an opportunity for any candidate to surprise his critics more."

At least President Nixon isn't alive to weigh in. His assessment of Thompson? "Oh s---, that kid," Nixon said on White House tapes when told of his appointment as a Watergate counsel, ABC's Brian Ross reports. "He's dumb as hell. . . . He isn't very smart, is he? . . . But he's friendly." And this from White House counsel Fred Buzhardt, in 1973: "He said he realized his responsibility was going to have to be as a Republican increasingly." No comment from the Thompson campaign.

On the Democratic side -- Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's Iran vote is looking more like a rare misstep from the frontrunner, at least from the standpoint of the Democratic primary. It's at least giving her rivals some running room to exploit her perceived strength: foreign policy.

Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., picked up on former senator John Edwards' line of attack yesterday: "Her willingness to once again extend to the president the benefit of the doubt I think indicates that she hasn't fully learned some of the lessons that we saw back in 2002," Obama, told ABC's Sunlen Miller. (How much does David Axelrod wish Obama hadn't missed that vote? "Well it wasn't a close vote," Obama said. Neither was the Iraq war resolution, but that one was sort of important, wasn't it, senator?)