SNEAK PEEK: Dum Spiro Spero
South Carolina voters hit the polls in tomorrow's Democratic primary
January 25, 2008— -- 1 day until the South Carolina primary (Democrats)
4 days until the Florida primary
Barack Obama enters Saturday's South Carolina Democratic primary as the odds-on-favorite.
But how much of a bounce will he get out of a win?
With Bill Clinton taking care of Jessica Yellin, Hillary Clinton was freed up over the past week to raise money and campaign in Feb. 5 states.
Obama, by contrast, has been bogged down in the Palmetto State, knowing after losses in New Hampshire and Nevada that South Carolina is a state he cannot afford to lose.
Looking ahead to Tuesday, the Clinton camp took additional steps on Friday to ingratiate the former first lady with Florida voters.
"Those votes should matter," Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson said of Florida voters on MSNBC. "We are going to ask our delegates to seat the delegation of Florida and Michigan and we think Sen. Obama and Sen. Edwards ought to do the same thing."
Although Florida's Democratic primary is a delegate-free contest, Clinton is laying the groundwork to get a free-media boost if she emerges first in the Florida balloting.
She will also soon have the backing of Florida Sen. Bill Nelson, per Huffington Post's Sam Stein.
Nuts and bolts of South Carolina Democratic Primary:
Forty-five delegates are up for grabs.
Democratic delegates are apportioned according to the vote in each congressional district as well as the statewide results. Candidates must receive at least 15 percent (either within a congressional district or statewide) of the vote to be eligible to be apportioned delegates.
African-Americans make up 29 percent of the state's population and make up 47 percent of the voters in the 2004 Democratic primary. Black voters went for John Edwards over John Kerry 37-34 percent. On Saturday, African-Americans are expected to make up at least half of the voters in the primary, and probably more.
South Carolina has an open primary: independents can vote in either the Republican or Democratic primary but not both. The Republican primary was last Saturday so an independent who voted on Jan. 19 cannot vote again in Saturday's primary.
There are 2,445,755 registered voters (There is no same-day registration).
Absentee ballots are due on primary day and can be returned by fax.
Some things to look for:
- It's not do or die for John Edwards in South Carolina. Assuming that his Saturday finish is not Nevadesque, he is expected to stay in the race at least until Feb. 5 because his advisers believe that he could play kingmaker if his two rivals end up short on delegates.
- Unlike the GOP race where there were pockets of voters that candidates were aiming to win, there is no one area that is seen as straight up Obama/Clinton/Edwards territory.
- If Obama is performing very well in counties like Williamsburg, Florence, Marion and Clarendon, it could indicate a big win for him. These are counties with large African-American population
- Clinton's areas are Charleston, Greenville, and Columbia (Richland County). She can do well in these places among educated liberal women. Columbia is a college town (USC) and Clinton has a strong network of elected officials in Richland County.
- If Edwards is getting 25-35 percent in the Upstate counties (Greenville, Spartanburg, Cherokee, York, Chester) then this could really hurt Clinton. These counties are the places where Edwards' economic message can play well -- textile mills closing -- and if he gets broad support, it will likely be at the expense of Clinton.
The kicker:
"You may decide . . . 'Barack's got it in the bag, because the polls look good.' Remember the polls in New Hampshire? We cannot take anything for granted."--Barack Obama at a 1/21 debate-watch party in Myrtle Beach, S.C.
Who will emerge victorious in the South Carolina Democratic primary? LINK
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House Speaker Pelosi gives the Democratic pre-buttal to the State of the Union. LINK
Democrats Push for South Carolina
ABC's Kate Snow on the trail of Hillary Clinton. LINK
Giuliani's Last Stand
ABC's Jake Tapper on the struggle for the Sunshine State. LINK
Obama Reads the Top Ten
Democratic candidate Barack Obama's 'Top Ten' campaign promises on Letterman. LINK
Republicans Spar Over Economy
The last Republican debate in Florida focused on cost-cutting measures. LINK
Does Clinton Have the Hispanic Vote?
ABC's Kate Snow reports from the Clinton campaign. LINK
'The Note' Rewinds the Week's Best Moments
ABC News' Senior Political Reporter Rick Klein on the weekly political roundup. LINK
Edwards Knocks Obama, Clinton for Bickering
Sen. Edwards releases ad in South Carolina slamming his rivals for squabbling. LINK
Pro-Obama Group Takes California Airwaves
Power PAC airs ad praising Obama on California cable stations. LINK
Will Tax Rebate Help?
The economic stimulus package provides up to $1,200 for some families. LINK
Bottom Line on the Race for '08
George Stephanopoulos analyzes where the Democratic and GOP candidates stand. LINK
Hillary Clinton Prepares for Challenges
Sen. Clinton's take on the hotly contested Democratic primary in South Carolina. LINK
Will Congress' Stimulus Plan Work?
Economists worry about the timing of refund checks as well as effectiveness. LINK
Bill: The Other Clinton Candidate
Could the ex-president's extreme support of his wife's candidacy hurt her? LINK
