THE NOTE: Miami 2008:
Will the Sunshine State make the lights go out on Broadway?
Jan. 29, 2008 -- Former mayor Rudolph Giuliani on Tuesday casts his political fate with New York transplants and a few million other Florida voters, as the Sunshine State sheds light on a scattered Republican field in the last contest before the primary campaign goes national.
It's a beautiful day in Florida, except maybe if you draw your paycheck (or what's left of it) from the Giuliani campaign. Voting locations opened at 7 am ET and close by 8 pm, with returns expected to roll in primarily between 9 pm and 9:30.
Polls indicate a two-way battle for first is likely, with Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and former governor Mitt Romney, R-Mass., hoping to cap a bitter Florida race with the last piece of momentum available before Feb. 5.
But McCain and Romney are both likely to emerge in strong position for Super Tuesday. That's not necessarily the case for Giuliani, R-N.Y., the one-time GOP frontrunner who has seen his standing plummet the longer he's campaigned in the state; Tuesday marks his 58th day campaigning in Florida, and he's done nothing to lower his own stakes and expectations in the closing hours of the race.
"We are going to win today -- and then of course, if we don't win, we figure out another strategy. But the idea is to win today, and to turn this thing," Giuliani told Robin Roberts on ABC's "Good Morning America" on Tuesday. "I think we're really going to surprise people."
Giuliani said he's counting on early voting to have come through big for him -- and said he still thinks the Florida gamble was worth it.
"The reasoning was that this was the state where we would have the chance to do the best, given my positions, given the pros and cons, given the resources we had, it would be better to apply them to a state this size," he said. "If you contemplate defeat, you're going to have defeat. If you contemplate victory, you give yourself the best chance of winning."
He's committed to Wednesday's debate in California, but it feels like the end is near for Rudy -- the lackluster crowds, the devastating quotes (from him and his advisers), the serene, almost resigned demeanor of his staff.
Per the Miami Herald: "Though he has acknowledged his campaign is sinking, Giuliani is acting like a fighter without taking any swings. . . . When asked what would happen after Tuesday's vote, Giuliani said, 'Wednesday morning, we'll make a decision.' "
Giuliani "hinted broadly today he could end his presidential bid as soon as Wednesday," the New York Daily News' David Saltonstall writes. "His comments came as Giuliani staggered through a listless, final day of campaigning by hop-scotching across the state in a private jet and greeting small groups of supporters in bland airport hangars."
Said Giuliani (raising the question of why he'd stay in the race if he doesn't win Florida): "I think the winner in Florida will win the nomination, and we going to win in Florida."
Giuliani campaign chairman Pat Oxford lays out the stakes for The Dallas Morning News' Wayne Slater: "If he is second or first, he certainly has momentum. But if he finishes third, it's going to be hard to get momentum out of it."
The battle between McCain and Romney has taken on increasingly personal overtones, as they squabble over each others' conservative credentials -- a battle that neither of them is fully comfortable waging. For these men, this is a vile curse word: They spent their final full day campaigning in Florida calling each other "liberal."
Romney: "If you want that kind of a liberal Democratic course as president, then you can vote for him." McCain: "People, just look at his record as governor."
The winner gets all 57 Republican convention delegates -- the biggest haul to date -- and Florida "could produce a clear front-runner for the party's presidential nomination before a virtual national primary next week," John M. Broder and Michael Luo write in The New York Times.
"Florida may be Mr. Romney's last chance to stop Mr. McCain from being anointed the front-runner in the Republican field."
McCain is closing strong -- buffeted by the endorsements of Gov. Charlie Crist, R-Fla., and Sen. Mel Martinez, R-Fla. (Which almost certainly means he'll be drubbed on Tuesday, given the tendency of voters to defy the pundits this cycle.)
"McCain and Romney are scrapping like lonely bridesmaids over a wedding bouquet," per the St. Petersburg Times overview. "They traded charges in TV and radio ads and in dueling news releases as they crisscrossed the state, and both campaigns complained of push-polling -- hit jobs masquerading as opinion polls."
Independents can't help McCain this time: "Florida's GOP primary will be the first of the 2008 campaign open only to Republicans, making it a clearer test of a candidate's appeal to the party's conservative base," Michael Shear and Perry Bacon Jr. write in The Washington Post. "McCain, in particular, will have to win without the support of independents, who helped him prevail in New Hampshire and South Carolina. It is also the largest, most diverse state to vote so far, and one whose residents are struggling with a depressed housing market and a faltering economy."
Surprise -- Romney has run more ads than anyone else in Florida, once again. Of 8,012 TV spots tracked by Nielsen Monitor-Plus, Romney aired more than half of them: 4,475, followed by 3,067 for Rudy Giuliani, per Joanna Weiss of The Boston Globe. "John McCain has run 470 ads, all of them this month," she writes. (Read those numbers again -- how is McCain in this race?) http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2008/01/the_florida_ad.html
Rudy, unlike his rivals, is closing out with sunshine in the Sunshine State. "We think that's how Mike Huckabee won in Iowa and we think the two candidates, John and Mitt, are really attacking each other now pretty relentlessly, very strongly," Giuliani tells the Christian Broadcasting Network's David Brody. "We think people of Florida want to hear a positive message."
(And yes, he's so positive that he's happy about the fact that Florida newspapers AREN'T endorsing him.)
On the Democratic side in Florida, there's an election that only matters if you want it to. And whether you want it to depends wholly and entirely on two factors: 1) Whether you live in Florida; and 2) The candidate you support for the Democratic nomination.
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