The Note: Project Survival

March 4, 2008 -- Throw out the poll numbers, the fundraising figures, the ad wars, even the delegate math: On Tuesday, the challenge for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., is no more and no less than survival.

Texas and Ohio headline four states that vote on Tuesday, and while the Clinton dynasty/legacy isn't on the ballot, it isn't very far removed from it, either. Anything other than a clear victory for Clinton (though what that means is already subject to debate) will heighten calls for her to cede the Democratic nomination fight to Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill.

For Clinton, the big contests are must-wins -- period, the end. After 11 straight losses, her campaign is running out of states to slow Obama's momentum, and running out of explanations for why Obama's victories shouldn't matter.

Even overwhelming Clinton margins on Tuesday are unlikely to significantly trim Obama's delegate lead, which stands at 110 coming into the day, according to ABC's delegate scorecard.

That makes this one of those days where spin and perceptions will count as much as the votes themselves. Victory will be in the eyes of the beholder -- and not all behold equally.

"The big question: What constitutes a 'win'?" Jackie Calmes writes in The Wall Street Journal. "If the New York senator gets large majorities of the popular vote in both states, she will clearly keep fighting for the Democratic nomination, at least until the next major primary in Pennsylvania on April 22. If she loses both, she will face tremendous pressure to drop out of the race. The latest polls suggest, however, that the outcome is likely to be muddier than either of those scenarios."

"The more decisive the outcome, the easier her choice," John Harwood reports in The New York Times. "Should Mr. Obama sweep all four contests, her hopes will plainly be extinguished. Should she carry Ohio and Texas -- as her husband, former President Bill Clinton, said she must to retain a shot at the nomination -- she will no doubt fight on to the next big battle, on April 22 in Pennsylvania, and, perhaps, all the way to the convention in Denver. Trickier to handicap would be a split decision."

Keep an eye on a tiny subset of voters -- the undecided superdelegates. It's those party leaders' interpretation of momentum and electoral feasibility -- in short, whether they consider Clinton's Tuesday performance a "win" -- that will determine whether she can continue to stay in the race.

ABC's George Stephanopoulos reported on "Good Morning America" Tuesday that Clinton is "not going to give up so long as there's a realistic path to the nomination," but added that those close to Clinton say she's "realistic about the necessity of getting out if she does lose today."

"If she loses both, I think there's no question that she will be getting out of the race," Stephanopoulos said. "If she wins Ohio and loses Texas, I think it will be very difficult for her to go on. . . . But I think if it's close, she may find a way to stay in."

(If it's a close call, does anyone doubt that Clinton will find something -- anything -- to point to as a hopeful sign?)

By the numbers: Democrats on Tuesday will award 370 delegates, the largest batch up for grabs in any one day other than Super Tuesday. The two big prizes are Ohio, where the tattered industrial base gives Clinton an edge going in, and Texas, where the diverse demographics (and bizarre delegate selection rules) may favor Obama.

Republicans will choose 256 delegates -- and with Texas, Ohio, and Vermont winner-take-all states, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., could finish the evening essentially clinching the nomination; by ABC's count, McCain is only 225 delegates shy of the magic number.

Polls close at 7 pm ET in Vermont, with Ohio polls closing at 7:30 pm ET, and Texas and Rhode Island wrapping up voting at 9 pm ET. (The Texas caucuses start 15 minutes after polls close for primaries.)

Wintry, nasty weather could impact turnout in Ohio, with rain expected in Vermont and Rhode Island and a brilliant day on tap in the Lone Star State.

The forecast is clear in Texas, but that's more than can be said about the chances of easily interpreted results. Two-thirds of the state's delegates will be chosen in a primary, with the remaining delegates selected at the evening caucuses. Far more delegates are at stake in (Obama-friendly) parts of the state that have voted heavily Democratic in recent elections.

"Neither [campaign] expects a knockout punch for the Democratic presidential nomination" in Texas, R.G. Ratcliffe writes in the Houston Chronicle. "The complex system of Texas delegates being chosen by both popular vote and through caucuses makes it possible for the popular vote winner to come up short in delegates."

Said Obama campaign manager David Plouffe: "The mostly likely outcome is you're not going to see a huge delegate shift one way or another."

While the stakes are clearly higher for Camp Clinton, Obama's campaign enters what could be its crowning day with an uneasy, defensive sense about it. He's had two previous opportunities to hasten an end to the contest -- in New Hampshire, and on Super Tuesday -- and a third failure would extend the race by at least seven weeks, until Pennsylvania votes April 22.

A confluence of events -- particularly the start of the Tony Rezko trial, and new details of conversations between a campaign adviser and a Canadian official about NAFTA -- have helped give Clinton her first sustained and coherent messaging in weeks. (And led to one very combative press conference that Clinton sure hopes won't be the last of its kind.)

"I'm just getting warmed up," Clinton said in Ohio (describing a campaign that had long hoped to be cooling down by now).

Per Anne Kornblut and Perry Bacon Jr. of The Washington Post: "Clinton advisers claimed fresh signs of momentum and continued to attempt to raise doubts about Obama on Monday, questioning his trade policies and ties to a Chicago developer. Clinton (N.Y.) predicted victory and insisted that a comeback is on the horizon."

"A week into a late series of attacks designed to stoke voter doubts about Obama, Clinton went on the offense in advertisements and remarks," Jill Lawrence and Kathy Kiely write in USA Today. "She aired a new ad critical of the Illinois Democrat for not holding hearings in his job as chairman of a Senate subcommittee on Europe, suggesting he should have looked into NATO operations in Afghanistan."

Clinton may finally be succeeding in instilling doubts about Obama -- the 3 am phone call ad was the start though not the clincher. "Under heavy pressure from Democrats in both camps to score wins today, the Clinton campaign stepped up its attacks on Obama yesterday, shifting from criticism of what it calls his lack of substance to an assault on his character and putting Obama on the defensive hours ahead of the voting," Susan Milligan and Scott Helman write in The Boston Globe.