The Note: Running, Scared

May 5, 2008 -- If change has been the watchword of the 2008 race, the weary rivals for the Democratic nomination enter the next critical week in their never-ending race in agreement: They desperately want to change the subject.

"I don't intend to lose," Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., who has grown too accustomed to losing of late, told ABC's Diane Sawyer Monday on "Good Morning America." On his opponent's promise to temporarily lift the gas tax, he added: "We shouldn't pretend that we're offering them something" in terms of immediate relief at the pump.

No predictions from Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton -- but no let-up in her aggressive populist appeal, either.

"We started out so far behind, and clearly have made up some ground," Clinton, D-N.Y., said on "GMA." On the gas tax -- the surprise issue No. 1 of the race this week: "I feel like goldilocks here. I want to lift the gas tax, and I want to pay for it. . . . It's about time people in public life said let's come up with solutions for, you know, the great majority of Americans."

Suddenly -- and oddly -- Obama and Clinton have found plenty of issues to argue about in the closing days before Tuesday's next round of voting. But that's not what's driving the storyline -- not at this late stage.

The basic dilemma for both candidates on the eve of the primaries in Indiana and North Carolina: Obama just may be winning the nomination even while he's losing it. And Clinton could be losing it even while she's winning.

That's doesn't sound like a fair game (though they have at least played by the same rules). Which is why Obama is trying to do something more than just run out the clock. And it's why Clinton needs something dramatic -- a "game-changer," as she herself has said, if she harbors any realistic hope of an overtime comeback.

James Carville provides the (colorful) color commentary. "The onus is on her," Carville tells Newsweek's Eleanor Clift. "She's got to do better than tie. If she wins Indiana and North Carolina, she's the nominee. She's got to shock the system, and she may be shocking it."

And what else to you need to know about the final Clinton pitch than this? "If she gave him one of her cojones, they'd both have two," Carville said. (Do the math.)

ABC's math says that, Obama continues to build to his delegate lead; with Guam providing a 2-2 split that gives Obama a robust 142-delegate edge.

Obama sees himself bounce back to 50-38 in the new New York Times/CBS poll -- but warning signs abound: "a substantial number say that [Obama's relationship with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright] could influence voters this fall should he be the Democratic presidential nominee," Adam Nagourney and Marjorie Connelly write in the Times.

Attention, superdelegates: "The survey suggested that Mr. Obama, of Illinois, had lost much or all of the once-commanding lead he had held over Mrs. Clinton, of New York, among Democratic voters on the question of which of them would be the strongest candidate against [Sen. John] McCain, of Arizona."

Much different (and, for Obama, more worrisome) results from the USA Today/Gallup Poll: In the space of two weeks, Obama went from up 10 to down seven. "Barack Obama's national standing has been significantly damaged by the controversy over his former pastor, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, raising questions for some voters about the Illinois senator's values, credibility and electability," Susan Page writes in USA Today.

"The erosion of support among Democrats and independents raises the stakes in Tuesday's Indiana and North Carolina primaries, which represent a chance for Obama to reassert his claim to a Democratic nomination that seems nearly in his grasp," Page writes.

"A defeat in Indiana and a close finish in North Carolina, where he's favored, could fuel unease about his ability to win in November. Such results also could help propel Hillary Rodham Clinton's uphill campaign all the way to the Democratic convention in August."

New Obama supporter Joe Andrew set the expectations bar right where Obama doesn't want it: "You're going to see him coming back," the former DNC chairman said on "Fox News Sunday." "I think he's going to win both because of this energy, this excitement, and because of the fact that people realize that he's got some real plans here, not just political pandering."

(Per the Washington Times' Christina Bellantoni: "Clinton aides seized on the remark within minutes and sent reporters a YouTube clip. They also revived talk of a months-old Obama campaign spreadsheet that had predicted he would win Indiana by seven points.")

A fresh storyline for Obama to explain -- just when you were wondering why James Hoffa Jr. feels so strongly about his candidate. "Sen. Barack Obama won the endorsement of the Teamsters earlier this year after privately telling the union he supported ending the strict federal oversight imposed to root out corruption, according to officials from the union and the Obama campaign," Brody Mullins and Kris Maher write in The Wall Street Journal.

"It's an unusual stance for a presidential candidate. Policy makers have largely treated monitoring of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters as a legal matter left to the Justice Department since an independent review board was set up in 1992 to eliminate mob influence in the union."

The Obama campaign confirmed it to the Journal, but Obama muddied the water on "GMA": "I wouldn't make any blanket commitments. What I've said is that we should take a look at what's been happening over at the Teamsters and all unions, to make sure that in fact, you know, organized labor is able to represent its membership and engage in collective bargaining. . . . The union has done a terrific job cleaning house, and the question is whether they're going to be able to get treated like every other union."

Voting in Indiana and North Carolina can answer the questions swirling around Obama's candidacy -- or not.

Bloomberg's Al Hunt predicts a superdelegate flood if Obama sweeps both states: "If Obama wins those contests on May 6, the Democratic nomination will be over. There are scores of so-called superdelegates waiting to embrace the Illinois senator. Victories in the two states will open the gates, even Clinton supporters acknowledge privately," Hunt writes.

"Conversely, if Senator Clinton, 60, of New York wins in both states, that would take the odds of an Obama nomination from near certain to merely even," Hunt adds.

That's behind Clinton's all-out populist assault in Indiana, where she hopes gas prices and guns will arm her for a big victory in Tuesday's primary. (And we're guessing she'll spend part of the morning learning the difference between Matt Lauer and Tim Russert.)

"I'm not going to put my lot in with economists," Clinton told ABC's George Stephanopoulos, on "This Week" in Indianapolis on Sunday, attacking what she called "elite opinion" on the subject of a gas-tax holiday. (But seriously -- and remembering presidential preference for one-handed economists -- ALL the economists have this one wrong?)

A new mailer takes on Obama on gun control. Per ABC's Jake Tapper: "Her name may be 'synonymous with gun control,' as an NRA official recently told me, but Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, is attacking Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, on guns in a new mailer being sent to Hoosiers." "What does Barack Obama really believe?" the mailing asks.

Clinton's 40-minute stump speech was pared back to a 16-minute assault on Obama on Sunday, per ABC's Eloise Harper. "There is a big difference between us, who understands what you are going through and who can you count on to be on your side to get the solutions that are going to help you for a change, instead of [helping] the folks who are already doing very well," Clinton said.