'It's the Map, Not the Math'?


The moment polls closed in West Virginia, ABC News was able to use exit polling to project that Hillary Clinton would comfortably win the Mountain State's Democratic primary.

Racially motivated voting ran somewhat higher in West Virginia than elsewhere.

"In preliminary exit poll results," writes ABC News polling director Gary Langer, "two in 10 whites said the race of the candidate was a factor in their vote, second only to Mississippi. Only a third of those voters said they'd support Obama against John McCain, fewer than in other primaries where the question's been asked."

Full analysis here

So where does the former first lady go from here?

Per ABC's George Stephanopoulos, "She tries to argue that this is a crucial turning point in the campaign, she almost certainly stays in until Kentucky and Oregon vote on Tuesday, and she argues to superdelegates that Obama cannot win these white working class voters."

The problem for Clinton is that Obama is still on track to become the pledged delegate majority winner on May 20th.

The Illinois Democrat is not planning to declare victory on that day, but Obama campaign manager David Plouffe reiterated Tuesday that May 20th will be a very significant date in the race since several high-profile Democratic leaders have indicated that the party would suffer if superdelegates were to hand the party's nomination to the runner-up in pledged delegates.

None of this, however, will protect Obama (who wore a flag pin for the second day in a row on Tuesday) from new scrutiny about his viability in November. In an effort to address concerns that his candidacy represents the (losing) McGovern coalition of affluent whites and African-Americans, Obama is planning three stops in Michigan on Wednesday including two in Macomb County, the place where Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg went in the 1980s to study the alienation of Reagan Democrats by government in general and Democrats in particular.

On the campaign front. . .


-- Drops by Chrysler Plant, Sterling Heights, MI

-- 11:30 am ET: Attends economic discussion with workers, Warren, MI

-- 7:00 pm ET: Attends event in Grand Rapids, MI


-- No public events scheduled


-- Attends event with voters, Missoula, MT

-- Visits Pine Ridge Reservation, Pine Ridge, SD

As for the Republicans. . .


-- Appears as a guest on "Live" with Regis and Kelly

At the White House and Beyond. . .


-- 4:05 am ET: Participates in arrival ceremony with the first lady, Tel Aviv, Israel

-- 6:25 am ET: Meets with the President of Israel, Jerusalem

-- 7:25 am ET: Meets with the Prime Minister of Israel, Jerusalem

-- 12:10 pm ET: Speaks at the ICC Jerusalem Convention Center


-- 8:30 am ET: Releases the Consumer Price Index for April


ABC News' Gary Langer: Exit Polls: The Race Factor in West Virginia LINK

ABC News' Jennifer Parker: Clinton Looks for Big West Virginia Win LINK

ABC News' Rick Klein: Blogging the West Virginia Primary LINK

ABC News' Jake Tapper: The Math LINK

ABC News' Gary Langer: Obama and Working-Class Whites LINK

ABC News' Jake Tapper: The Goldberg Variation LINK

ABC News' Ann Compton: Clinton Adviser: She's Fighting to Last Primary LINK

ABC News' Jake Tapper: Et Tu, Carville? LINK

ABC News' Ed O'Keefe: Hagel Flirts with Obama Veepstakes LINK

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