The Note: The End
The Note: Final voting set to bring finality to Democrats, as supers cast votes.
June 3, 2008 -- The Clinton era in Democratic politics comes to an end on Tuesday -- and the only question left is how Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton chooses to acknowledge it.
Five months to the day after the voting started back in the snow of Iowa, a late spring day in the unlikely venues of Montana and South Dakota close it out -- with a little help from a final burst of superdelegates.
Sen. Barack Obama -- minus one church, plus one flag pin, and on the cusp of history -- stands as of Tuesday morning just 36 delegates away from capturing the nomination, per ABC's count. With the last two contests (the 55th and 56th states or territories to vote, if you're counting) likely to provide roughly half that total, we're counting down for a final two dozen to drop.
"It is going to happen," ABC's George Stephanopoulos reported on "Good Morning America" Tuesday. "He will declare victory tonight. It will be a moment of history. . . . The real debate [for Clinton] is going to come down to, do you suspend, or do you get out? They might try to have it both ways."
Clinton won't step aside until Wednesday at the earliest (though her voice gave out before she did Monday, at her last event in a primary state).
If all goes as Obama plans, he'll have what he needs by the time polls close at 10 pm ET in Montana -- allowing voters to put him over 2,118, while he speaks from St. Paul, Minn., the soon-to-be site of the Republican National Convention.
"Sensing an opportunity to shut down the nominating contest, Obama campaign advisers said that they were orchestrating an endorsement of Mr. Obama by at least eight Senate and House members who had pledged to remain uncommitted until the primaries ended, and that the endorsements would come the moment the South Dakota polls closed on Tuesday night," Adam Nagourney writes in The New York Times.
"The group will be led by Senator Tom Harkin of Iowa, who on Monday met with three other uncommitted Democratic senators -- Ken Salazar of Colorado, Thomas R. Carper of Delaware and Benjamin L. Cardin of Maryland -- at the offices of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in what Mr. Salazar called a unity session," Nagourney writes. "The most likely situation, some of Mrs. Clinton's aides said, was that she would suspend her campaign later in the week and would probably -- though not definitely -- endorse Mr. Obama."
Then, it's all over but the pouting -- and don't expect much of that, not from a campaign that's starting to slow down, or from a candidate whose political interest now lies with a clean end followed by full-throated support.
They can call it a celebration in New York City Tuesday night, but it's looking more like a commemoration -- of a historic campaign, of a remarkable candidate, and of one of the more endurable legacies in the Democratic Party's history.
Advance staffers are being summoned to New York -- or allowed to go home. The Hillraisers have been invited as well -- a last round of hugs and thank-yous. A Wednesday AIPAC speech in Washington is the only major event still on Clinton's schedule; one Clinton fundraiser said a move out of the race could happen any time after that, in part because she doesn't want to appear before a forum of strong supporters as a former candidate.
"For those reading the tea leaves, there are strong signs the Clinton campaign may be preparing for the end," ABC's Kate Snow and Sarah Amos report.
Per Snow, "On a conference call late this afternoon with about 30 top donors, senior advisor Harold Ickes conceded that the likelihood of Clinton securing the nomination was growing more remote. But he emphatically argued to donors that the end was not here yet and that they should continue to support the Senator until she says to do otherwise."
What we know for sure: The voting ends Tuesday. Fifteen delegates are at stake in South Dakota, where polls open at 8 am ET and close at 9 pm ET. Sixteen delegates will be awarded in Montana, where polls open at 9 am ET and close at 10 pm ET.
Obama would love to make it clean and wrap it up by the time the voters do: "He apparently is telling people that he has the numbers, and that's what's going to happen, at which point it would become moot what the rest of us do," Rep. Jason Altmire, D-Pa., tells the AP's Jim Kuhnhenn.
"The plan would be for superdelegates to formally endorse Obama while the polls are still open, and then later Tuesday, Obama would gather enough delegates to reach the magic number," per The Hill's Jordan Fabian and Bob Cusack. "That strategy would ensure that voters and pledged delegates -- and not an individual superdelegate -- would put Obama over the top, helping to avoid the perception that party insiders ultimately decided the nominee."
The flood may be led Tuesday by a freshly endorsing House Minority Whip James Clyburn, D-S.C., per ABC's Jake Tapper."Clyburn is calling other superdelegates Monday to get them on board before the last Democratic primary contests," Tapper reports.
"Obama's supporters are putting the lean on some uncommitteds who have been privately backing Obama through this process," per The Note's "Sneak Peek." "The message: If you support him, make it count and come out tomorrow to put him over the threshold."
"A Democratic source said that at least five to 10 House members would endorse Obama on Tuesday morning, at least 10 senators would endorse him by the end of the day and an additional 10 superdelegates also would endorse him during the day,"John McCormick and Mike Dorning report in the Chicago Tribune. "That would almost certainly assure enough delegates by the end of the day to reach the 2,118 needed to clinch the nomination."
(What does Rahm do?)
"I've spoken to 10 uncommitteds, and they've said yes, they'll be committing [to Obama], and they'll be committing sometime tomorrow," Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., tells Politico's Amie Parnes and Charles Mahtesian.
If Obama is not over the top by Tuesday night, expect a joint statement Wednesday morning from Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi, and Democratic Governors Association Chairman Joe Manchin asking all undeclared superdelegates to announce their preference by Friday, ABC's David Chalian reports.
Yet there remains the wisp of doubt about Clinton's intentions.
"Clinton sent mixed signals about her plans," Shailagh Murray and Anne E. Kornblut report in The Washington Post. "As her campaign recalled field staffers to New York, one adviser indicated that she would suspend, but not end, her campaign within days. But the candidate herself said she will continue to argue to the group of party insiders who will hold sway over the final outcome that her strong showing in recent contests demonstrates that she would be the more electable candidate in November."
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