The Note: Palin Power
The Note: Rejuvenated McCain ticket pulls ahead, and here comes Hillary.
Sept. 8, 2008— -- Congratulations, Sen. John McCain: The race is no longer solely about Sen. Barack Obama. (Which is not the same as saying it's about you.)
There, on the cover of Time, Newsweek, and People -- and US Weekly and the National Enquirer -- is the woman McCain vaulted from obscurity to celebrity without a pass through the stages of political curiosity (not that the press corps isn't curious).
Just about by herself -- with her record still a mystery, and almost without answering a single question -- Gov. Sarah Palin has deposited the ticket in the lead.
Already -- and most importantly -- she has shaken the stubborn narrative of the race. (Could it be that a country that wants a fresh approach was really waiting for a fresh face to promise it?)
"McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republican's biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points," per USA Today's Susan Page.
The lead stretches to 10 points among likely voters. And this is supposed to be Obama's trump card: "Before the convention, Republicans by 47%-39% were less enthusiastic than usual about voting," Page writes. "Now, they are more enthusiastic by 60%-24%, a sweeping change that narrows a key Democratic advantage. Democrats report being more enthusiastic by 67%-19%."
The Real Clear Politics polling average reads "McCain +1.0" -- anyone remember the last time those letters were red?
Team McCain starts the week trying to take Obama's "change." New ad out Monday morning (a fact-checker's delight): "The original mavericks. He fights pork barrel spending. She stopped the Bridge to Nowhere. He took on the drug industry. She took on big oil. He battled Republicans and reformed Washington. She battled Republicans and reformed Alaska. They'll make history. They'll change Washington. McCain. Palin. Real change."
Palin, R-Alaska, has done many things for McCain in the 10 days since she announced her presence with a rifle shot across red-and-purple America: energize the base, prime the pump of GOP fundraising, inject youth into a tired party, challenge the mainstream media to understand precisely what her candidacy means.
What it means is something real: "Palin's debut has invigorated the Republican base here in the Hampton Roads region of Virginia, a battleground area in a top swing state, and one where GOP turnout depends heavily on evangelical Christians such as the Goodes, along with the many military families clustered around the Norfolk and Portsmouth bases," Alec MacGillis writes in The Washington Post.
"The reaction has been remarkably instantaneous, with socially conservative voters who had barely heard of Palin electrified by the few facts they quickly learned. . . . But the question facing Republicans here is whether their organization can match, and fully capitalize on, the enthusiasm provided by Palin with just two months left until Election Day."
We still can't be sure which way and how deeply Palin cuts, not yet. (And as Oprah declines the honor -- Palin will sit down for a full-length interview with an actual reporter before the week is out: ABC's Charlie Gibson grabs the scoop the McCain campaign said it would not dole out until Palin was good and ready.)
Obama, D-Ill., wants desperately to turn the focus to the economy -- and the government's help for Fannie and Freddie may help him get there. (But forgetting Sarah Palin is hard.)
Also coming to Obama's aid: Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, hitting the trail solo for Obama in Florida on Monday (but don't look for her to take it directly to Palin).
(And lunch is on for Thursday -- 9/11: Bill and Barack are set to break bread in New York City, per ABC's Kate Snow.)
Obama is taking on Palin himself (isn't this what you're veep's supposed to do?): "He chose somebody who may be even more aligned with George Bush -- or Dick Cheney, or the politics we've seen over the last eight years -- than John McCain himself is," Obama said on ABC's "This Week with George Stephanopoulos." (He called her a "skilled politician" -- but would not say she is prepared to be president.)
Behold Palin's impact: In giving Republicans something to be happy about again, she's constructing a new storyline, complete with its own savior who is the center of all the action. (A few more polls like the one from USA Today/Gallup, and that action will be where everyone wants to be.)
It starts with curiosity: "McCain's resurgence in the polls comes as Nielsen Media Research reported that the Republican convention earned more television viewers than the Democratic convention. Republicans earned an average audience of 34.5 million, while Democrats earned an average viewership of 30.2 million," per Politico's David Paul Kuhn.
They appear to have liked what they saw: "John McCain may have swapped one enthusiasm gap for another," Politico's Jonathan Martin reports. "Palin, with her out-of-nowhere debut, compelling personal story and first-rate convention speech, has injected new life into the GOP and piqued the curiosity of voters who are only mildly interested in politics."
This is why she's not back in Alaska yet: "It was clear from raucous postconvention rallies in four battleground states -- each drawing thousands of cheering fans -- that Gov. Palin has brought an enthusiasm to the Republican ticket that wasn't there before her selection," Laura Meckler writes in The Wall Street Journal. "In interviews, voters seemed drawn to Gov. Palin's persona, not necessarily her experience or views."
"He is a feistier candidate with Palin at his side. With his blue shirt sleeves rolled up, he punches out his lines with gusto, railing against the 'old, big-spending, do-nothing, me-first, country-second Washington crowd,' stabbing the air with his Sharpie marker and thumping the lectern with his fist," Maeve Reston writes in the Los Angeles Times. "Aides acknowledge that Palin's presence has turned McCain into a sharper campaigner, and that is perhaps why she abandoned her plans to return to Alaska this weekend. Instead, she will accompany him for two more days than planned this week."
All that excitement means bodies: ""Fresh from the Republican convention, Senator John McCain's campaign sees evidence that his choice of Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate is energizing conservatives in the battleground of Ohio while improving its chances in Pennsylvania and several Western states that Senator Barack Obama has been counting on," Patrick Healy and Michael Cooper write in the Sunday New York Times.
"While fortified turnout from this base is probably not enough to assure victory for Mr. McCain, strategists said, it would be very difficult for him to win without it," they continue. "In that sense, Ms. Palin's presence on the ticket -- depending on how her candidacy fares under the scrutiny it is receiving -- could be vital."
But how much rides on that first round of questions? "McCain's choice of Sarah Palin as a running mate galvanized the Republican base that has been wary of McCain because of his clashes with religious leaders he once termed 'agents of intolerance' and his sponsorship of a campaign-finance law. Her Sept. 3 acceptance speech drew raves from Republicans," Bloomberg's Michael Tackett writes. "Still, the Palin selection may give Democrats an opening to question McCain's decision-making because the Alaska governor, 44, has been in office for just 20 months."
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