Why the Democratic Race Could End in North Carolina

Now Edwards is out of the race and the proportion of black voters in North Carolina is lower — 38% of registered Democrats, according to the State Board of Elections. Public Policy Polling and other survey firms predict that African-American turnout will surge in North Carolina, as it has elsewhere, which means Clinton likely will need the support of as many as three in four white voters to win.

The racial divide is apparent at campaign events. Clinton's rally in Fayetteville included black supporters but was predominantly white. Obama's rally in Greensboro included white supporters but was predominantly black.

Steady as he goes

Obama's path to the nomination is an easier one: Stay the course.

Avoiding a blowout in Pennsylvania — or better — then winning in North Carolina would maintain his lead in the overall popular vote as well as his edge in pledged delegates. That would minimize any opening for Clinton to persuade superdelegates, who will hold the balance of power at the convention, to endorse her.

"When we started off, nobody thought we could win — let's face it," Obama says in Greensboro, responding to a question shouted from the balcony. "First of all, you've got a black guy named Barack Obama — you're starting in a hole," he says. "Then, I'm 46 years old, and I've got these big ears, so they make me look younger." He's used the line before, but it's new to this audience, which laughs appreciatively.

A desire for change has propelled his presidential bid, he says. "Keep in mind what has been so powerful and positive about this campaign is that the grass roots has stood up and said, 'We're going to give Barack a chance.' "

Mary Winstead, 54, the director of a trade school that retrains the unemployed, applauds from a seat near the back of the auditorium. "I think Hillary Clinton is a very nice person, but I do think we need a change, and Barack will be the man for the job," she says.

She is confident that at the end of the day Democrats will "come together" behind one contender or the other, and she doesn't fault Clinton for rejecting calls for her to withdraw from the race — yet.

"But if she doesn't do well in North Carolina," Winstead says of Clinton, "I think she should start considering that."