A history of Washington scandals rooted in everything from illegal nannies to drug use informs the questionnaire with every possible "gotcha" the vetters can imagine. It delves deeply any potentially embarrassing personal histories: marital issues, tax payments, mortgages, clients, lobbyists and medical records. A candidate who may not have recently had a thorough physical would be required to get one and provide the results.
The questionnaires are so invasive that some candidates have flatly refused to take that step. Once those forms are complete, a final short list of potential VPs is selected and they are then required to provide even more detail -- including tax returns and financial records. By now, insiders in both camps say, those short lists have already been compiled and the finalists are under consideration.
In the case of the Democrats, a staff, complete with a chief aide to the soon-to-be-named vice presidential candidate is now in place. Hillary Clinton's campaign veteran Patti Solis Doyle has been named chief of staff to Obama's No. 2 -- whoever that may be.
Some Obamologists believe Doyle's hiring signals he has already made his choice, but in 2004, the Kerry campaign hired a VP chief of staff a week before announcing its VP selection -- and refused to tell the new chief of staff that the pick was John Edwards.
As for McCain, a steady stream of hopefuls has hit the trail with him, and frequently mentioned possibles like Jindal, Romney and Crist were all guests at a holiday barbecue in May, fueling speculation that they were short-listers. That led to counterspeculation that McCain merely was being hospitable to extend an olive branch or shore up support.
So if you're willing to wager some cash on who will be the VP candidates, the smart money is still on "none of the above."
And with the information largely speculation at this point, there's actually a brisk trade under way: People who have invested in a "market" that predicts the outcome of the VP picks.
This prediction market, according to economist Justin Wolfers, typically does a more accurate job of forecasting who will be vice president (and president) than polls, pundits or educated guesswork.
"The relevant question is not whether prediction markets are always right," said Wolfers, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, "but whether they are 'more right' -- or more often right -- than alternative approaches."
Even last February -- early in the primary season -- the prediction market InTrade (intrade.com) gave Obama a two in three chance -- or 66 percent -- of winning the Democratic Party nomination. The latest InTrade market offers investors Obama a "buy" price at 65.1 and McCain's stock is trading at 31.6. That means the traders are putting their money -- and they actually are buying and selling shares -- on Obama to win in November.
In the market on vice presidential picks, the latest trading says a lot about the various candidates' stock, since it takes into account not just polling information, but news stories and gossip, too. Leading the Republican pack is Mitt Romney, who is trading at 23, followed by Tim Pawlenty at 15 and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 12.
Among the Democrats, Hillary Clinton is still a contender, trading at 18, even though among political pundits, the likelihood that she will be Obama's pick is considered slim.
The most money placed on the Democratic race, $30 out of $100, is on "the field" -- any other candidate than those being traded, which includes just about every name ever mentioned as a possible Obama running mate -- Evan Bayh, Joe Biden, Sam Nunn, Ted Strickland, Sam Nunn,Tom Daschle, Chris Dodd, Bob Kerrey, Tom Vilsack, John Edwards, Al Gore, Wes Clark, Mark Warner or Bill Richardson.
Among the Republicans, again the "smart" money -- $40 out of every $100 -- is betting that the eventual vice presidential nominee will be from the field, which excludes all the usual -- and some unusual -- suspects: Romney, Pawlenty, Huckabee, Kay Bailey Hutchison, Condoleeza Rice, Rudy Giuliani, Lindsay Graham, Fred Thompson, Jeb Bush, former Maryland gubernatorial candidate Michael Steele, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, California Representative Duncan Hunter and even Texas Representative Ron Paul.
"These markets will move very, very sharply," Wolfers said.
The bid price for stock in Webb, Wolfers pointed out, plummeted from 18 to 3 within minutes of his announcement that he would not be a vice presidential candidate Monday afternoon.
"If you look at the 'field contact' among the Republicans, there's a 40 percent chance that someone other than the field will win. That's where all the volume in trading is."
So, go ahead and guess who will be the VP candidates at the end of the summer. The only two Americans who probably have a better idea of the right names are John McCain and Barack Obama, and at this point, it's doubtful they know for certain either.
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