A Year Before Voting, A Nation of Discontent

Call us the Unhappy States of America.

One year before Election Day 2008, most Americans are dismayed by the country's direction, pessimistic about the Iraq war and anxious about the economy. Two of three disapprove of the job President Bush is doing. Nearly a year after Democrats took control of Congress, three of four Americans say it isn't achieving much, either.

In all, 72% of those surveyed in a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken Oct. 12-14 say they are dissatisfied with how things are going in the USA while just 26% are satisfied. Not since April have even one-third of Americans been happy with the country's course, the longest national funk in 15 years.

"Don't get me wrong, America's a great country," says Lori Jones, 46, a medical assistant in Phoenix. But she worries about her family's finances and prospects for the next generation. "I think we've somehow lost our way."

There's plenty of time for attitudes to change before the election, of course, but the current landscape is the sort that in the past has prompted political upheaval and third-party candidacies. The last time the national mood was so gloomy was in 1992, when the first President Bush was ousted from the White House and H. Ross Perot received the highest percentage of the vote of any third-party candidate in 80 years. Bill Clinton was elected amid economic angst.

And the likely impact of the downbeat mood on next year's election?

"I'd rather be the Democratic candidate," says Joel Aberbach, director of the Center for American Politics and Public Policy at UCLA. Democratic presidential contenders are tapping desire for change. Now 53% of Americans surveyed have a favorable view of the Democratic Party; just 38% have a favorable view of the GOP.

"It looks a lot like 1952," says David Mayhew, a political scientist at Yale and author of Electoral Realignments, though he cautions it's too early to predict election results. "The Korean War was very unpopular, the Truman administration was very unpopular, and people wanted to throw rocks at D.C." Democrats lost the White House and control of Congress that year.

Now, as then, a divisive war casts a shadow over the nation's mood.

Iraq dominates the political agenda. In the poll, four in 10 Americans volunteer that the Iraq war will be one of the most important issues determining their vote in 2008. That's more than twice as many who cite the second-ranking issue: health care.

Six in 10 call the invasion of Iraq a mistake, equal to the highest levels of anti-war feeling during the Vietnam conflict. Despite reports of progress after this year's rise in U.S. force levels, a majority say the situation in Iraq is getting worse for the United States. Only 16% say it's getting better.

In conversations at four locales across the nation — at a farmer's market in Salem, Ore., outside a public library in Phoenix, at a shopping mall and bus stop in downtown Milwaukee and in a roundtable at the New Jersey shore — Americans struggled over what to do next in Iraq.

Not one of several dozen people interviewed expressed optimism that the next president, whoever is elected, will be able to turn things around militarily or to extricate U.S. troops without significant complications, even chaos.