Survival of the Fittest: McCain Needs S.C.
Momentum from N.H. win stalled in Michigan as independents fail to turn out.
CHARLESTON, S.C., Jan. 16, 2008 — -- In just eight days, Arizona Sen. John McCain has gone from having to win a primary to survive as the Republican front-runner, to having to win the next primary just to survive, period.
Roller-coaster ride? It's been more like a pendulum.
After finishing second Tuesday in the Michigan Republican primary to Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, McCain is in the precarious position of having to win in South Carolina to have any kind of realistic hope of becoming the GOP presidential nominee.
There was a lot at stake in Michigan. A McCain victory would have kept alive his momentum coming off his win in New Hampshire and, just as important, could have effectively doomed Romney, his deep-pocketed rival.
But independent voters and Democrat crossovers — McCain's strength — failed to come out in anywhere close to the numbers of 2000, when McCain won in Michigan.
In 2000, just 48 percent of GOP primary voters were registered. The rest were independents and Democrats, with whom McCain tends to do very well. This time, registered Republicans comprised 68 percent.
Another ominous trend for Arizona's senior senator was that voters for whom the economy was the most important issue went for Romney overwhelmingly, exactly the opposite of what happened in New Hampshire.
McCain may now be regretting the "straight talk" he dispensed when he said some jobs in Michigan were never coming back. Romney pounded away on that as evidence McCain was willing to give up the many thousands displaced workers fallen victim to the decline of the auto industry. It seemed to matter little that McCain was almost probably correct.
McCain also seemed unable to offer an easily comprehensible plan for turning around Michigan's slumping economy. He spoke of eliminating wasteful federal spending, eliminating the alternative minimum tax and developing "green technologies," but those are difficult concepts for some to grasp in a state in need of urgent relief for the unemployed.
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