Battleground Breakdown: Where Florida Stands in the 2016 Presidential Race
A look at how the Sunshine State may fare in the general election.
State’s Voting History in Presidential Elections
— -- Florida voters chose the electoral vote winner in the last five presidential elections, the most famous of which came in 2000, when the state’s then-25 votes tipped the race for George W. Bush. The Sunshine State went blue for Barack Obama in 2012 and 2008, awarding him just over 50 percent of its vote in each race.
How It Played in the Primaries
Hillary Clinton was heavily favored on the Democratic side of the March 15 primary, in a state her husband, former President Bill Clinton, won by almost 6 points in the 1996 general election. She defeated Sen. Bernie Sanders, a 64.4 percent to 33.3 percent.
On the Republican side, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio had the home state advantage but finished a distant second to Donald Trump, who tallied 46 percent of the vote. Behind Rubio’s 27 percent, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich received 17 and 7 percent, respectively.
Money Matters
Clinton is devoting more money to ads in Florida than in any other state during the campaign’s homestretch. The campaign has earmarked almost $20 million for ads in the state until Nov. 8, in addition to almost $23 million already spent, according to data from CMAG/Kantar Media.
Trump, on the other hand, is devoting a small fraction of Clinton’s total, spending only a reported $700,000 on future ad buys in Florida to go with the $4.6 million his campaign has purchased so far.
Ground Operations
The Republican National Committee has 200 staff members and over 800 trained volunteer organizers supporting the campaign and there are currently 60 GOP offices in the state which are working to elect all of the party's candidates including Trump, an RNC spokesperson told ABC News. Nearly half of those offices have opened in the past month.
Clinton's campaign has 65 offices in Florida.
Hurricane Matthew
As Hurricane Matthew bore down upon the eastern coast of Florida and mandatory evacuations took place in some coastal cities, the Clinton campaign called for an extension of the state's Oct. 11 voter registration deadline to accommodate residents affected by the storm. Florida Gov. Rick Scott said an extension would not be considered.
"I’m not going to extend it, if you, whether it’s the registration date, you’ve had, everybody has had a lot of time to register," Scott told reporters. "So on top of that we got lots of opportunities to vote, early voting, absentee voting and election day so I don’t intend to make any changes."
State Issues
With a large Cuban-American community in South Florida, the relationship between Cuba and the United States is a very Floridian concern. The recent re-establishment of diplomatic relations and easing of travel restrictions to Cuba drew mixed responses in the state.
Additionally, as the Zika virus made inroads in Florida this summer, the state found itself facing a congressional standoff over funding to combat the threat from mosquitoes.
Senior-centric issues like Medicare and Social Security also receive greater scrutiny in the Sunshine State, where there is a large population of retirees.
Latest Poll Numbers
A Quinnipiac University poll released on Oct. 3 showed Clinton with 46 percent support to Trump's 41 percent support. Earlier, on Sept. 8, Quinnipiac showed Clinton and Trump tied among the surveyed likely voters in the state. Each candidate received 47 percent, with a 3.5 percentage point margin of error. Over the summer, Clinton led most polls in the state, with a Quinnipiac survey of registered voters in early June showing her with a lead of 8 points.
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