New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District Race 2014: ABC News' '14 For '14'

PHOTO: Republican former Rep. Frank Guinta (left), Republican Dan Innis (center) and Democrat Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (right) are running for for New Hampshires first congressional district, a seat that changed party hands in both 2010 and 2012.

ABC News' "14 For 14" project is documenting 14 races that matter between now and November. This page will be updated throughout the year. See the full list of 2014 midterm election contests the ABC News political team is tracking.

THE PLAYERS

Rep. Carol Shea-Porter
Democrat
Represented the district for three terms, only two of which were consecutive: 2007-2011 and 2013-present.
Age: 61 (born 1952)

Former Rep. Frank Guinta
Republican
Unseated Shea-Porter and represented the district for one term, 2011-2013. Served as mayor of Manchester, 2006-2010.
Age: 43 (born: Sept. 26, 1970)

Dan Innis
Republican
Professor of marketing at the University of New Hampshire, served as dean of UNH’s business school from 2007-2013.
Age: 51 (born: April 7, 1963)

THE STAKES

The waves keep crashing into New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District. In 2006, Shea-Porter joined the Democrats’ midterm wave as they took House and Senate majorities on the unpopularity of Bush’s Iraq war and GOP ethics scandals. In 2008, she defended that seat as Obama’s candidacy turned out Democrats nationwide. Like many of her Democratic colleagues, she lost in 2010 to a Republican challenger, Guinta. This time around, the issue looks like Obamacare and how Democrats will answer for its bungled implementation. While Guinta is expected to win the GOP primary, setting up a third-in-a-row matchup between a former and current member of Congress, it could be interesting. Giunta is a social conservative facing an openly gay opponent in a state where gay marriage is legally recognized--including the marriage of Republican business professor and former University of New Hampshire business-school dean Dan Innis, the underdog vying against Guinta for the GOP’s nomination in this race. Their primary is late, and Innis could gain fundraising traction among gay Republicans nationally.

THE OUTLOOK

Shea-Porter leads by double digits, according to an Oct. 7-16, 2013 poll by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center which showed her besting Guinta 48 percent to 32 percent and Innis 43 percent to 32 percent. Shea-Porter could get meaningful help from the DCCC, as she’s a member of its Frontline program. Two extraneous factors could play in this race: 1) Attack ads against Democratic Rep. Ann Kuster (who may or may not have known what “Benghazi” was when asked at a Middle East forum) from the neighboring district will be seen in NH-1, which might not matter but won’t look great for Democrats, and 2) Scott Brown might run for Senate, sucking some of the air out of political discussion across the state.

ABC NEWS RATING

Toss-up

KEY DATES

Septmeber 2, 2014: Primary Debate (on ABC affiliate WMUR)
September 9, 2014: Party primaries
October 27, 2014: Debate (on ABC affiliate WMUR)
November 4, 2014: General election
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