The Note: Your New Hampshire Primary Primer

ByABC News
February 9, 2016, 8:56 AM

— -- NOTABLES

--EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT TODAY: Regardless of who wins, theres a reason for Granite Staters to celebrate: Tuesday marks the 100th anniversary of the New Hampshire primary. Heres your primer on all the details, courtesy of ABCs BRAD MIELKE: http://abcn.ws/20SRMrZ

--RECORD TURNOUT? Secretary of State Bill Gardner is predicting a record surge in Republican ballots cast. Democrats are not expected to show up to the polls in the record numbers they did eight years ago. Even so, overall turnout is expected to shatter the mark set in 2008. http://abcn.ws/20SRMrZ

--POLLING PLACES TO WATCH: University of New Hampshire polling director Andy Smith tells ABC News for the GOP, I like to look at Derry as it has both a blue collar core and suburban parts. On the Democratic side, Smith says, Keene is key." He predicts a 60 percent finish for Bernie Sanders might spell statewide disaster for Hillary Clinton -- not a far-fetched scenario, as the heavily Democratic town is less than 20 miles from the Vermont border. Donald Trump might have his eye on working class towns like Rochester, Somersworth or perhaps nearby Farmington, which his state staff calls Trump country. Polls begin closing at 7 p.m., though in some areas voting will continue until 8 p.m. http://abcn.ws/20SRMrZ

--HOW PREDICTIVE IS THIS PRIMARY, ANYWAY? New Hampshires record at picking nominees is spotty. On the Republican side, its a better indicator than Iowa: in the last 7 nominating contests dating back to 1976, the New Hampshire winner has gone on to win the nomination 5 times. On the Democratic side, Iowa has the edge: over the last 8 competitive contests, Iowa voters have chosen 6 eventual nominees; New Hampshirites have chosen 5. Many would argue that the states most valuable role is paring down the choices, not picking a winner. But in 40 years, no Republican has secured the nomination without winning one of those two early states. http://abcn.ws/20SRMrZ

--5 THINGS TO WATCH TODAY: With independents making up more than 40 percent of the electorate, the New Hampshire primary can often surprise, and that may be the case today. ABCs PAOLA CHAVEZ and VERONICA STRACQUALURSI note the five things to watch: http://abcn.ws/1Q3Pyy0

--4 IN 10 GOP VOTERS SAID THEY COULD CHANGE THEIR MINDS: Before polling places opened, a large chunk of the New Hampshire electorate said they were still willing to change their allegiances. More than four in 10 likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire said they still could change their minds before todays primary, according to new polls out Sunday and Monday. A CNN/WMUR/UNH poll showed that less than half of likely Republican voters say they have definitely decided who they're going to vote for today, ABCs RYAN STRUYK notes. http://abcn.ws/1Q49GQK

 

PRIMARY PREVIEW:

--BERNIE SANDERS AND THE EXPECTATIONS GAME. In politics, there is one downside to front-runner status; you have to win and, depending on your perceived lead at the time votes are cast, it helps to win big, ABCs MARYALICE PARKS notes. Sen. Bernie Sanders might be the underdog nationwide, but he has been leading in the polls in New Hampshire for months. One poll released on the eve of the "First in the Nation" primary from CNN/WMUR/UNH put the Vermont independent at a whopping 61 percent over the former secretary of state at 35 percent. Another from UMass-Lowell, also out Monday, had Sanders at 56 percent and Clinton at 40 percent. While the numbers would be exciting for any campaign, they have also set the bar high for Sanders as voting in the state begins. Sanders' campaign confirms that their internal polling numbers are strong, but argues, as does the senator, that nothing can be taken for granted and that any win would be momentous for them. http://abcn.ws/1SFF3ba

--JEB BUSH'S FALL (OR MAYBE RISE) IN NEW HAMPSHIRE: Many, including some of Jeb Bushs own advisers, believe New Hampshire is his final stand, his last opportunity to prove to the Republican establishment and his powerful donor base that he is a viable candidate who has a shot in future primaries. Some of his backers fear tonight could be the end of the line. But its just as plausible that New Hampshire could be the beginning of Bush's second wind, ABCs CANDACE SMITH writes. Bush has seen a rise in some polls and has seen his campaign recharged by a solid debate performance and an uptick in crowd size. Its no secret that the Bush campaign has gone all-in here. Supporters were shipped in from Florida to door-knock, make calls and plant yard signs around the Granite State. An analysis of voter contact, conducted by Monmouth University polling director Patrick Murray, found that Bush led the Republican pack in outreach. But for donors, though the campaign and super PAC's money may be abundant, time is not. http://abcn.ws/1SdAeVQ

--KASICH PREDICTS VERY STRONG FINISH. Ohio Gov. John Kasich, whose campaign has maintained a laser-like focus on performing well in todays New Hampshire primary, declined to predict exactly how he would place once all the votes are counted here, but sounded a note of confidence in an interview today on "Good Morning America." "Were going to finish very strong," he told ABC News George Stephanopoulos. "Im not like Muhammad Ali; I cant predict, you know, exactly what round or whatever." Kasich noted that he has already dispatched his campaign bus to South Carolina and on Monday his campaign released a schedule of events the Republican Ohio governor is expected to attend in that state.  http://abcn.ws/1TalFTg

--NOTED: KASICH TAKES DIXVILLE: Kasich was also relishing his performance in the tiny town of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, which traditionally votes at midnight on Primary Day. Kasich received three votes compared to two for rival Donald Trump. (Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders received four votes out of the total nine cast). Kasich said he called every voter in the northern New Hampshire enclave. http://abcn.ws/1TalFTg

--RUBIO BELIEVES HE MUST BE DOING SOMETHING RIGHT. Sen. Marco Rubio today brushed off recent attacks by his GOP rivals, saying he must be "doing something right," and expressing confidence despite what he called the "unusual set up" in todays New Hampshire primary, ABCs PAOLA CHAVEZ notes. "It's great to be targeted because that means you're doing something right," the Florida Republican told "Good Morning America." "People don't waste time or money attacking someone who isn't doing something well." http://abcn.ws/1nV5yvJ

 

IN THE NOTES INBOX

GOP OPPOSITION GROUP, AMERICA RISING, SETS EXPECTATIONS FOR CLINTON. Dont Be Fooled: New Hampshire Is Clinton Country, Colin Reed, executive director of America Rising PAC, wrote in a Medium post last night. For the second straight week, Secretary Hillary Clintons campaign is furiously spinning their underperformance in a key early voting state. And for the second straight week, the expectation-lowering spin coming out of Brooklyn (or rather New Hampshire since thats where 150 of her campaign staffers have frantically been deployed) strains credulity. Heres why Hillary Clinton should win New Hampshire with ease: http://bit.ly/1V0wXqW

 

DISS OF THE DAY with ABCs MERIDITH MCGRAW -- GOVERNORS GO FOR THE GAFFE. After Florida Sen. Marco Rubios poorly-reviewed performance at the ABC News Republican debate on Saturday, candidates saw an opening for a shot at second place behind the presumptive favorite in New Hampshire, Donald Trump. Yesterday John Kasich, Chris Christie, and Jeb Bush formed a firing squad of governors, taking aim right at Rubios repetitive gaffe. I think what you saw on Saturday night is proof positive that there is a difference between being prepared for being President of the United States and not, Christie told WMUR. I am prepared to be President of the United States, Senator Rubio is not. Bush also suggested its not Rubios time. When you repeat something over and over again that's basically a canned phrase and it validates a belief you're not ready to be president, Bush said. But it was Kasich who got to the heart of Rubios repeat problem: authenticity. People are looking to not only understand whats in your head, they also want to know whats in your heart, he said. "And if youre scripted, Im not sure people respond to that.

 

YESTERDAY ON THE TRAIL with ABCs VERONICA STRACQUALURSI

SANDERS HITS BACK THAT CLINTONS CLAIM THAT HE TOOK WALL STREET MONEY. It is very disturbing that, as the Clinton campaign struggles through Iowa and New Hampshire, they have become increasingly negative and dishonest, Sanders campaign manager Jeff Weaver said in a statement. Todays attack from Secretary Clinton, [whose] super PAC received $15 million from Wall Street, is even more absurd. Bernie Sanders, who has never accepted corporate PAC money in his life. Earlier this week CNN reported that Sanders attended fundraisers on behalf of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) along with other senators, which were attended by lobbyists from the financial industry. Clinton yesterday accused Sanders of taking money from Wall Street, through that committee. ABCs MARYALICE PARKS has more. http://abcn.ws/1O0ChVJ

CLINTON CAMPAIGN LEANS HEAVILY ON FEMINISM TO MAKE CASE AGAINST SANDERS. In the closing days before Tuesdays New Hampshire primary, Hillary Clinton has been leaning heavily on feminism to make a case against her opponent Bernie Sanders. On Sunday, Bill Clinton unleashed a tirade aimed at people who he alleges are Sanders supporters who he said are making vicious and sexist comments to Clinton supporters online. Although Bill Clinton did not mention the group by name, it seemed he was referring to the so-called Bernie Bros -- a term used by some Clinton allies to disparage some male Sanders supporters who allegedly write sexist comments to Clinton supporters online. It is unclear how widespread such commentary is online, and Sanders repudiated it. "It's disgusting. We don't want that crap, Sanders said during an interview on CNN on Sunday. ABCs LIZ KREUTZ has more. http://abcn.ws/1UYsqFp

CHRISTIE GETS DOWN ON ONE KNEE TO WOO NEW HAMPSHIRE VOTER. You would have thought he was asking for her hand in marriage, ABCs JORDYN PHELPS writes. But when a woman at Chris Christies first town hall Monday morning in Hudson, New Hampshire, introduced herself as an undecided voter who was leaning toward supporting him but wasnt quite convinced, the New Jersey governor knelt down on his knee, proposal-style, to ask for her vote. "I hope she votes for me. Ive got dirt all over my pants, Christie said after listening to her. She said she needed convincing on the issue of Social Security, and when the woman eventually said he had won her over, the audience cheered. http://abcn.ws/23SSPL0

RUBIO ISNT GOING TO CHANGE HIS MESSAGE. At his headquarters in Manchester, New Hampshire Marco Rubio told ABCs TOM LLAMAS that he was not going to change his message. He reiterated that Obama is "doing terrible damage to America in a way that he planned to change this country." We're not going to change our message the entire campaign right up to the general election when we defeat Hillary Clinton, Rubio said yesterday. Barack Obama's doing terrible damage to America in a way that he planned to change this country, the role of government in our country, the role of America in the world and this election is about reversing all of that damage. Rubio got flak from Chris Christie during Saturdays ABC News Republican debate in New Hampshire for repeating the same attack lines about President Obama four times.

 

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

BLOOMBERG SAYS HES CONSIDERING PRESIDENTIAL BID. Former New York City Mayor and billionaire Michael Bloomberg confirmed Monday that he is weighing the option of launching a presidential bid, ABCs ALANA ABRAMSON reports. Bloomberg told the Financial Times he is looking at "all options" regarding a possible bid. He strongly condemned the 2016 campaign rhetoric, calling the discussions distressingly banal and an outrage and an insult to voters." http://abcn.ws/1UZh1oO

 

WHOS TWEETING?

@JamesPindell: Not Dixville > A N.H. city thats notably good at picking winners http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2016/02/08/this-new-hampshire-bellwether-city/YXuy09028nYsE1NtiwS72M/story.html?event=event25  #fitn #nhpolitics

@jeffzeleny: The most overheard thing at our polling place so far: "Would you like to go back to being an independent when you're done?" "Yes." #FITN

@wpjenna: On Fox, Trump explains why it was okay for him to repeat a vulgar term used by a woman at his rally last night: "It was like a retweet."

@JohnJHarwood: NH hairdresser backing Hillary: "She's sort of a conservative Democrat, you know? not that liberal." http://cnb.cx/23UrCYq 

@mviser: Hillary Clinton runs on Dunkin: Her campaign has spent far more on Dunks than any other. https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2016/02/08/here-how-much-each-presidential-candidate-has-spent-dunkin-donuts/yZ8jHZU8O22b7U3MhK0JuJ/story.html