The Note: Melania Flies Solo
— -- NOTABLES
--MELANIA TRUMP HITTING CAMPAIGN TRAIL: For most of the 2016 presidential campaign, Melania Trump has opted to stay mostly on the sidelines, citing her priorities as a mother. And when she has stepped out on the campaign trail, she has typically maintained a non-speaking role by her husband’s side. But today, with just five days until Election Day, Mrs. Trump is breaking from the norm to headline her first solo campaign event of the 2016 general election in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, ABC’s JORDYN PHELPS notes. She will be introduced by Karen Pence, the wife of her husband's running mate, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence. It will also be her first speech since her address to the Republican National Convention this summer. That speech was quickly overshadowed by allegations that it had plagiarized certain lines from Michelle Obama’s 2008 address to the Democratic National Convention, a charge for which a Trump aide later accepted fault. http://abcn.ws/2f4o9SK
--POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY: Mrs. Trump is making her Thursday debut in the crucial Philadelphia suburbs, which often decide the outcome of Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes. Polling out of Pennsylvania last month showed Clinton in a comfortable lead in the state by over 6 points, but the Trump campaign is making a play for the state. http://abcn.ws/2f4o9SK
--WHAT SHE’LL SAY: Trump is expected to tell voters about her experience growing up in Slovenia and what she hopes to accomplish as first lady if her husband is elected into office, according to Trump’s campaign manager. "She'll talk about her life here and her life in Slovenia where she grew up," campaign manager Kellyanne Conway said on ABC’s “The View” in an interview yesterday, ABC’s VERONICA STRACQUALURSI notes. http://abcn.ws/2fw593I
--ANALYSIS -- ABC’s RICK KLEIN: “We don’t operate on innuendo,” President Obama said this week, operating with a distinct whiff of what might be called innuendo. After all, it’s the Clinton campaign that accused FBI Director James Comey of engaging in “innuendo” in putting out his unsatisfying statement on Friday, and then saying nothing publicly. The president said he wasn’t commenting on any particular case when he went on to say, “We don’t operate on incomplete information… We don’t operate on leaks.” This is a brush-back pitch from the president, and about as far as he can go in calling out the director of the FBI in his case. The leaks from inside the FBI even since the president spoke have edged ever-closer to the political – a fact that Obama knows needs dealing with regardless of who wins next week. If supposed or presumed investigations proceed into next year, it may be more than innuendo that is dropped on the next president. For now, though, the best Clinton and her allies (including Obama) can hope is that the leaks and innuendo cease for the next few days.
BY THE NUMBERS -- BENEATH A CLOSE ELECTION CONTEST LIE DEEP RIFTS AMONG GROUPS. Profound rifts among groups lie beneath the close presidential contest, underscoring the country’s fundamental political divisions not only by race, gender and education but also by factors ranging from religious belief to residential area. Overall, likely voters divide 47-45 percent between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll. Third-party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein have 3 and 2 percent support, respectively. There’s a 22-point gender gap in the contest, nearly double the norm in elections since 1976. And that pales compared with other gaps -– 44 points between college- and non-college educated whites, 65 points between whites and nonwhites, 66 points between rural and urban residents and 97 points between white evangelicals and likely voters who don’t profess a particular religion. MORE FROM ABC’s GARY LANGER, SOFI SINOZICH, CHAD KIEWIET DE JONGE and GREGORY HOLYK: http://abcn.ws/2f3PMeD
YESTERDAY ON THE TRAIL with ABC’s ADAM KELSEY and VERONICA STRACQUALURSI
WHY PRESIDENT OBAMA'S CAMPAIGN BLITZ FOR CLINTON IS HISTORIC. As he barnstorms swing states in the closing days of the 2016 race, President Obama is forging an unprecedented final campaign for an outgoing incumbent president not seen in the modern age -- and a move that could help tip the scale in Hillary Clinton's favor, ABC’s JORDYN PHELPS reports. Obama is spending every day this week crisscrossing the map to stump for Clinton in key battleground states, and her campaign is capitalizing on his strong approval numbers, which are the highest they’ve been since the early days of his presidency. http://abcn.ws/2eer7Cv
BLACK EARLY VOTING DOWN IN KEY BATTLEGROUND STATES. Turnout among African-American voters in some key early-voting states may be cause for concern for Hillary Clinton. Florida and North Carolina, which are both critical battleground states in this election, have released racial data on early voters showing that they have so far accounted for a smaller percentage of people who had voted at this point before Election Day 2012 reports ABC’s MEGHAN KENEALLY. "The fact is that the overall rate of black participation is somewhat more disconcerting to the Clinton campaign" than the Trump campaign, University of Florida political science professor Daniel Smith told ABC News. http://abcn.ws/2eotGp9
THE MAP -- THREE KEY BATTLEGROUND STATES WITHIN POLLING MARGIN OF ERROR. Donald Trump has a slight lead in at least one key battleground state and is within the polling margin of error in three others. The latest numbers from the CNN/ORC poll shows Trump taking a slight lead in Nevada, with 49 percent support from likely voters compared to Clinton's 43 percent. That marks an increase in his support since early October, when Clinton had 46 percent support and Trump had 44 percent in the state, notes ABC’s MEGHAN KENEALLY. http://abcn.ws/2ff2Wqd
THESE STATES ALLOW EARLY VOTERS TO CHANGE THEIR MINDS. With less than a week before Election Day, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump offered some startling advice to early voters who might be second-guessing their selection: Switch your vote. His target was Democratic voters who have cast their ballot for Hillary Clinton but may be having a bad case of “buyer's remorse,” he said, calling his suggestion a "public service announcement.” “In other words, you want to change your vote," he said at a Tuesday campaign rally in Eau Claire, Wisconsin. ABC’s ALANA ABRAMSON has more. http://abcn.ws/2fcPUsW
SOME WHITE TRUMP SUPPORTERS FEAR BECOMING MINORITY. The gaudy ballroom of the Venetian in Las Vegas was filling up, as Wayne Allyn Root, a conservative radio host, warmed up the crowd. "Hello rednecks," he exclaimed. “I wrote a book called 'Angry White Male,'" he said. "Trump isn't just a person, he's an idea. He's a big beautiful gigantic middle finger." A middle finger, he said, to those who have ruined the country. In this sentiment, Root is not alone. Of Donald Trump's supporters, there is a vocal group that worry about a country that no longer looks like the United States they say they knew or envisioned. ABC’s CANDACE SMITH has more: http://abcn.ws/2e2LUOf
WHY AN HONESTY POLL SHOWS AN ADVANTAGE TO TRUMP, Disadvantage to Clinton. Donald Trump is currently tracking as the more honest of the two presidential candidates in a poll, although fact-checking of his statements during the campaign have shown he's lied several times. The latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll reports that 46 percent of likely voters believe he is the more honest and trustworthy candidate, while 38 percent believed it was Hillary Clinton, writes ABC’s MEGHAN KENEALLY. This marks the biggest gap between the two candidates in five ABC News/Washington Post polls that asked the question, beginning in May. http://abcn.ws/2fcpkT8
CLINTON'S HISTORY OF TALKING ABOUT GLASS CEILINGS. This presidential election has been historic in a number of different ways--one of the most notable is the first time a woman has been nominated for the presidency. On Nov. 8, an even higher glass ceiling may be broken: the first woman elected as President of the United States. Hillary Clinton has spoken about her effort to break the "highest, hardest glass ceiling" for years, notably during her concession speech at the 2008 presidential race when then-Sen. Barack Obama became the Democratic nominee. ABC’s MEGHAN KENEALLY and LINDSEY JACOBSEN have more: http://abcn.ws/2fcyqiN
DOWNBALLOT -- 11 SENATE RACES TO WATCH ON ELECTION NIGHT. No matter what happens in the presidential race on Election Night, the results in Senate races around the country are going to be unpredictable and could have massive implications for the next four years. The announcement by FBI Director James Comey that he is still looking through emails related to Hillary Clinton’s private server has many national Democrats worried that their once-strong opportunity to take back control of the Senate might be squandered. But Republicans are still playing defense in 24 states compared to Democrats’ 10, making their job of keeping the Senate majority that much harder. ABC’s ALI ROGIN, BENJAMIN SIEGEL, and MARYALICE PARKS have more: http://abcn.ws/2fdugoj
‘POWERHOUSE POLITICS PODCAST’ -- REPUBLICAN SEN. JEFF FLAKE SAYS HE MIGHT WRITE IN EVAN MCMULLIN. Having ruled out Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, Republican Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake said he might vote for independent candidate Evan McMullin for president. "That’s a possibility," he told ABC's JONATHAN KARL and RICK KLEIN during an interview on their podcast "Powerhouse Politics." Arizona voters can write McMullin in on their ballot, notes ABC’s ALI ROGIN. Flake, among a handful of Senate Republicans who have never supported Trump, says his popularity has dropped at home because of it, and that he’s relieved he’s not up for re-election until 2018, by which time he hopes tempers will have subsided. http://abcn.ws/2fwFMyP
WHO’S TWEETING?
@RosieGray: In intvw w/ @TimAlberta, Pence wouldn't give straight answer on whether he thinks Ryan should be re-elected speaker https://t.co/waogHwvKJS
@JakeSherman: This is a serious betrayal for Pence. He's known the guy for 15 years. they were in similar ideological circles on the hill. Wow
@dnewhauser: Well they can’t both be the nominee in 2020 (and maybe neither can). Knives have gotta come out at some point
@learyreports: Five days out, nearly 5 million Floridians have voted; party splits tighten http://bit.ly/2f4qf54 By @stevebousquet
@adamslily: Read @steveschale today who makes a lots of smart FL points but this one in particular. http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/11/3/5-days-out-and-potus-returns-to-duval.html …
