Poll: Kerry's Win Based on Moderate Image
Jan. 28 -- — A broad base on issues, a moderate image and a sense of electability powered John Kerry to a double-digit victory in the New Hampshire primary — and being someone other than Howard Dean didn't hurt.
Kerry did best with voters who were looking mainly for a candidate who can beat George W. Bush (he won 62 percent of them), and for someone with the "right experience." But Kerry also won big in two other, larger groups: Those who viewed Dean unfavorably and those who didn't think Dean has the right temperament for the job.
For Dean, once the runaway favorite in New Hampshire, the day put a coda on a stumble that accelerated after his loss in Iowa and his high-octane concession there. Among voters who decided in the days right after Iowa, 52 percent chose Kerry, just 15 percent Dean.
Dean closed a bit in the last few days, ran evenly with Kerry in some groups (such as those "angry" with the Bush administration) and prevailed in some others, such as those looking for a candidate who "stands up for what he believes," and very liberal voters (15 percent of the electorate, he won them by 11 points).
Electability played a very significant role. More voters cared more about a candidate's stand on the issues than about his ability to beat George W. Bush. But a third did care more about electability — and that was a very strong group for Kerry.
See table below.
Looking Ahead
The next round of Feb. 3 primaries looks tricky for Dean. He trailed Kerry by 19 points among conservatives, and while a small group in New Hampshire's primary (nine percent of voters), they've been more numerous in Oklahoma (25 percent in the 2000 primary), South Carolina (23 percent in 1992) and Delaware (15 percent in 2000).
Kerry also has work ahead: Among his strongest backers in New Hampshire were Catholics — a sizable 36 percent of voters, he won them by more than 2-1 over Dean, 47-19 percent. Catholics have been a smaller group in Democratic primaries in Missouri (24 percent in 2000), Oklahoma (14 percent) and fewer still in South Carolina in 1992.
Better for Kerry, looking ahead, is the fact that he did notably well in New Hampshire with less-educated voters: Among those who lack a college degree, he won by 2-1, 41-20 percent vs. Dean. (Among those with postgraduate educations, it was a much closer 37-33 percent). In New Hampshire, non-college graduates accounted for 45 percent of voters; it's been a bigger group in previous Democratic primaries in Delaware (55 percent in 2000), Missouri (60 percent in 2000), South Carolina (63 percent in 1992) and Oklahoma (75 percent in 1992, the most recent available).
Related Stories
ABC News Live