Political News Summary: March 11: The Anniversary
W A S H I N G T O N, March 11 -- Six months after the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, President Bush's approval ratings remain up in the clouds, at 82 percent in the latest ABCNEWS Washington Post poll, and at 80 percent in the new Gallup survey.
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In the time since September 11, Democrats have gone from lockstep support for the president on the war to cautious questioning of his handling of it (prompting immediate Republican pummeling and frenzied cable news coverage), with a slight drop-off in public support for the war being a possible weak spot for the otherwise high-flying Commander in Chief.
With the president's popularity tied so closely to support for the war, Polling Director Gary Langer notes that "there has been an 18-point drop since the fall of the Taliban in views that the fighting in Afghanistan is going 'very' well for the United States — perhaps reflecting recent casualties. And 'strong' support for Bush and the war, while still healthy, are down from their early-October highs."
"There's also increasing public concern about views in the Muslim world, marked by a 21-point increase in the number of Americans who say the United States is not doing all it can to win support there. And support for attacking Iraq falls sharply if U.S. allies don't line up behind the idea."
The weekend revelation about the administration's posture toward the use of nuclear weapons is sure to continue to kick up international dust this week, along with the Cheney and Zinni missions, with possible domestic blowback.
On more traditional domestic issues, in the last six months, Democrats have gone from zero back to 60 in terms of partisanship over the economy, taxes, Social Security, Enron, and energy (prompting less frenzied news coverage and little perceptible erosion of Bush's standing in the polls). And Bush has returned to the political circuit, making a day-trip habit of pairing fundraisers with substantive events.
Six months after the attacks, and just shy of seven months out from election day 2002 — and with the papers and morning shows running over with observances, and little big-time political news out there — today is as good a day as any to mull over the possibility that Bush's numbers might just stay at or near these high levels through early November, buoying the hopes of GOP candidates on the ballot.
That would amount to the second half of the bottom falling out for Democrats, who have plotted and proceeded all these months hoping and assuming that by election time, the economy still would be staggering and Bush's popularity would sink back down to its pre-September 11 levels, giving them an opening to take advantage of the normal pattern in which the president's party loses seats in midterm elections.
The oats-feeling President was kidding (right?) when he said this at Saturday's Gridiron dinner, per the Washington Post : "'I sat here tonight and listened to Senator Daschle make joke after joke at my expense. I can't believe I once hugged that man,' he said."
"'Karl Rove tells me that you're thinking about running. What are you going to run on, Tom? Patients' Bill of Rights? I'm for it. Enron? I'm against it. Campaign reform? I'll sign it. Child care? Tom, I'm gonna expand child care to those who don't even have children.'"
A must-read New York Times story for those of you working on or covering the 2002 campaign, all about Democratic struggles to come up with SOMETHING on which to run the elections to their advantage. With the recession apparently ending (or, it turns out, a mini-mirage), Democrats are toying with prescription drugs, retirement security, and some sort of Enron/"the people versus the powerful" thematic.( http://www.nytimes.com/2002/03/11/politics/11ECON.html )
For previews of Bush's speech this morning at the White House, see USA Today and yesterday's New York Times curtain-raiser. ( http://www.usatoday.com/hlead.htm )and
( http://www.nytimes.com/2002/03/10/international/10PREX.html )
Both FPOTUS and FFLOTUS step out today: Senator Clinton will speak at Harvard's Kennedy School this afternoon, and tonight in New York, former President Clinton will headline a $1 million fundraiser for the Democratic House campaign committee (DCCC). The fundraiser will take place at the Sheraton New York Hotel and Towers at 7:30 p.m., and is billed as an "evening of jazz" with the Lionel Hampton orchestra.
House Minority Leader Gephardt, DCCC chair Nita Lowey, Rep. Charlie Rangel, and House Democratic Whip Nancy Pelosi will co-star. The event is one of a trio — along with one last week on Boston and another scheduled for tomorrow night in Washington — expected to bring in about $3 million.
House Republicans raised $7.5 million last week at a dinner featuring Rudy Giuliani. Like that event, this one tonight with Clinton will be closed. Traditionally, both House campaign committees have closed their big fundraisers. But even so, it's yet another reminder that the national political press corps has too little leverage and expends too little effort to complain hard enough to get these fundraisers open in the public interest.
On Tuesday, President Bush will meet with the Russian Defense Minister and the president of Uzbekistan. He also will make a quick trip to Philadelphia to give a speech about volunteer service.
Tuesday also brings the Texas primary, with the marquis contests being the Democratic contests for governor and Senate. The party is certain to nominate a Hispanic candidate for governor, given their all-Hispanic field. A hallmark of the gubernatorial primary has been candidate Tony Sanchez's massive spending. By primary day, Sanchez is expected to just about match or possibly even exceed the $21 million spent by then-Gov. George W. Bush (R) on his ENTIRE re-election campaign in 1998.
The Washington Post 's Balz writes from Texas: "Sanchez's advisers say that, in addition to what he will have spent by Tuesday, he may spend another $30 million or so, most of it his own, in the general election."( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A1570-2002Mar9.html )
Like California, Texas is another big state with lots of media markets and little time, due to its early primary, for candidates to make much impact on the ground. Still, simply between these two gubernatorial primaries, we've seen what our early-morning, back-of-the-mouse pad calculations suggest to be about $40 million spent already this year.
Democrats' Senate primary in Texas is likely to go to an April 9 run-off because none of the three major candidates is expected to break 50 percent of the vote. Rep. Ken Bentsen, nephew of Lloyd, and former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk appear to be pulling ahead, though 1996 Senate candidate Victor Morales isn't that far behind.
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