Morning Political Note: Jan. 22

W A S H I N G T O N, Jan 22 -- President Clinton gave a majority of Americans the sense that he woke up every day aiming to figure out ways to make the US economy hum.

News Summary

And hum it did, for his eight years in office. Now, President Bush and his political advisors are trying to create the same impression about him, but it's harder to do when you consider 1) Republican free-market ideas, which are popular with a lot of Americans but, nonetheless, tend to sound a bit less reassuring during a recession; and 2) another blue-chip American retail brand name, K-Mart, is going under.

President Bush will travel to West Virginia this morning to tour a machine factory and make remarks on the economy. Still unclear whether or not this is supposed to be "the" replacement speech for anything not addressed by Bush about the economy in the State of the Union.

That speech, of course, happens one week from today.

Note Bush's destination today: yet again, the President is holding an event in a state that surely is part of the White House's electoral college calculus for 2004 — and also is home to an endangered Republican House member, Shelly Moore Capito.

Speaking of 2004, one of the Democrats viewed within the party as a top-tier, likely presidential contender will make his pre-presidential, "invisible primary" debut today. Democratic Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts will whack Bush's energy policy at an 11:00 am speech at the Ronald Reagan Building in Washington.

The Kerry operation showed more than minimal competence by getting curtain-raisers in the major papers.

The Washington Post 's version sums up: Kerry, "The leading Senate foe of the Bush administration's energy plan, … will propose a Democratic alternative today based on higher fuel efficiency standards, tax incentives for new energy sources and a target of 20 percent reliance on alternative and renewable fuels by the year 2020. Kerry, a likely presidential candidate in 2004, will seek to tie the administration's energy proposal to the disgraced Enron Corp." http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A15666-2002Jan21.html

However, the advance copy we saw of Kerry's speech isn't really as heavy on Enron as this implies. But look for Kerry to get tougher on Enron during the Q&A to follow.

The New York Times , interestingly, curtain-raises the Kerry speech in a story with a Detroit dateline in the business section, with a focus on the Bay State Senator's proposal to use tax credits to improve the fuel efficiency of cars. A Kerry presidential campaign would hope to simultaneously make him the first Democrat to successfully harness the latent political potential of the environmental movement AND prove his pro-business credentials. Today marks the first major test drive of that rhetorical gambit. http://www.nytimes.com/2002/01/22/business/22AUTO.html

The Boston Globe 's Kerry man, Glen Johnson, notes that the biggest difference between this speech and one Kerry delivered a few months ago to the League of Conservation Voters is really that this time, Kerry mentions Bush by name. http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/022/nation/Kerry_urges_priority_on_alternative_fuel+.shtml

"Bush is expected to mention his energy proposal as he travels today to Charleston, W.Va., to speak at a machinery company."

Another major accusation against Enron gets the story front-page play today, with major pick-up of ABCNEWS exclusive from last night, further stoking the impression of corporate greed and desperation run amok.

Today also brings a hearing in the class-action lawsuit on behalf of investors against Enron management, in US District Court in Houston.

Without a political smoking gun, the biggest impact of Enron in this political year is likely to be made by the record of accomplishment built up — or not — by Congress and the White House to ward off "another Enron" before election day. It's a particularly tough issue for those politicians closely allied with business interests who don't want Enron to turn into an orgy of over-regulation.

In one of the first of what will be many electronic and print stories on this fight, the Wall Street Journal on A2 looks at the looming battle over pension plan changes. Everywhere in Washington, overworked business lobbyists are sitting through interminable coalition strategy meetings about how to use the best grassroots, Astroturf, communications, and lobbying efforts to leverage off of Enron the changes their members wanted anyway, or to stop legislation that would be, in their view, one step or 10 too far.

The rest of what we have for you today is political cats and dogs.

Florida Governor Jeb Bush (R) will deliver his State of the State address in Tallahassee today. The Orlando Sentinel previews: " Bush, with an eye toward his November re-election bid, is expected to use his State of the State speech to highlight his three-year record on education and propose new ideas for creating jobs … Bush will try to put a rosy outlook on his administration and the budget proposal he released last week, especially his $1 billion commitment to education. Once the opening-day glow dissipates, he is expected to try to keep lawmakers on track and promote peace" between the warring legislative leadership. http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/nationworld/orl-asecscene22012202jan22.story?coll=orl%2Dhome%2Dheadlines

USA Today 's Weisman, keying off newly elected Republican National Committee chairman Marc Racicot's Sunday admission, writes, "President Bush says delaying installments of his 10-year, $1.35 trillion tax cut to close a budget gap is a tax hike. Yet four Republican governors back just such delays in their states to cope with the recession. One of them: the president's brother. Last month, Florida Governor Jeb Bush signed a bill depriving Floridians of $128 million in tax relief promised through mid-2003." http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2002/01/21/tax-cuts.htm

"The federal battle officially begins Wednesday, when the Congressional Budget Office is expected to declare the budget in deficit. Senator Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., has proposed delaying some of the Bush tax cuts beginning in 2004. Outside Washington, the idea already has taken hold:

"On Dec. 17, Governor Bush signed a budget-balancing deal that delays a cut in a tax on stocks and bonds."

"Michigan Republican Governor John Engler says the state's $1.4 billion deficit will likely force a delay in a planned reduction of a business tax slated for 2003."

"New York Republican Governor George Pataki says he may have to propose delaying some of $294 million in tax cuts slated for this year."

"Louisiana Republican Governor Mike Foster wants to extend $593 million in taxes that were to expire this year."

"Republicans aren't alone. Democratic governors in Virginia, Maryland and New Jersey are eyeing delays in tax-cuts slated through 2004."

"Whether state moves are tax hikes is a matter of 'semantics,' says White House budget director Mitch Daniels. He said that when Republicans proposed smaller than planned increases in Medicare, Democrats called them 'cuts.'"

The Washington Times sets up Bush's (maybe tough) re-election campaign this year. "Even Republicans concede that the incumbent and little brother of President Bush has some weak spots … In the past week, the Florida governor has been to Washington, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Houston and Dallas on an ambitious fund-raising foray. He is using the appearances to boast of his accomplishments over the past four years, projects with catchy names like the 'A+ Plan' and 'One Florida.' But to Democrats, the plans are targets." http://www.washtimes.com/national/20020122-86461444.htm

This is old stuff, but lots of papers use Bush's MLK, Jr. Day observance to rehash how well he didn't do among African-American voters in 2000, and how the White House is constantly looking for ways to make inroads among this key voting bloc.

The Washington Post reports, "'The higher favorability rating shows that ears of African Americans are open to the president, and that makes it much easier for them to listen to what he has to say about the economy and education and other issues,' said Matthew Dowd, Bush's campaign pollster and a senior adviser to the Republican National Committee." http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A15892-2002Jan21.html