ABC 2002: The Year Ahead
— -- Given the turbulent times in which we live, read it quick, since it could be overtaken by events at any moment.
Actually, there's plenty in here that should serve you all the way through November.
The impact of the war on the 2001 elections — which, outside New York City, was limited — has by now been sketched out for you in great detail by your ABCNEWS Political Unit and others.
But none of us will claim to know what impact, if any, the war will have on the much higher stakes, midterm elections of 2002. So hold your breath (and, for those of you who hate it when we avoid gutsy predictions, your nose) for a few paragraphs of cautious hedging.
At one extreme of the vast spectrum of possible scenarios for next November, the war could be over and the world rid of terrorism (we did say "extreme," which also implies "unlikely"). Or, at the other end, we could be in the midst of a full-scale military campaign on one or more fronts, with young American men and women getting killed in action, and not just in the occasional friendly-fire or equipment mishap.
And, of course and sadly, the United States might by the end of the year have experienced one or more additional terrorist attacks — of the scale of Sept. 11, less massive, or more so.
President Bush's approval rating could hover in the 80-percent range for the next 11 months, which would be unprecedented (but haven't the last few years in politics been all about the unprecedented taking place?); or, more likely we think, it could settle down near its pre-Sept. 11 range of about 55 percent, or somewhere in between. Also possible, though we think most unlikely in this 50-percent nation, is that his rating will sink much below that.
President Bush wants to change a lot of aspects of the culture of Washington, such as the endless cycle of investigations (now, of course, more than ever), and he's willing to expend political capital to do it. The war has interrupted this pursuit to some degree, but he has real goals and true motives for going about this, regardless of how it might affect his party's electoral chances in November. This is not to say that Bush is never partisan himself, nor to suggest that he doesn't want to grow the Republican party — he does. But he means it when he says he would be happy to go back to Crawford.
Another thing no one will claim to know: what shape the economy will be in by next fall, or what the previously unheard-of combination of an 80-percent-plus presidential approval rating and a weak economy could mean for candidates of the president's party, especially when the president himself isn't on the ballot.
In the 2001 elections, Bush's popularity didn't transfer to the GOP candidates on the ballot. But those elections were for non-federal offices (two governorships, the New York City mayoralty, and other local posts), whereas the bulk of the 2002 races will feature Senate and House incumbents who have spent the previous two years voting up or down on the president's policies.
The general view is that the longer the war against terrorism remains an issue, the better for incumbents.
At stake in 2002:
Control of the Senate, which Democrats currently hold with a 50-seat majority to Republicans' 49 seats and one independent (Mr. Jeffords). One-third of the Senate — 34 seats — will be on the ballot in November, of which 14 seats are held by Democrats and 20 by Republicans. Control of the House of Representatives, which Republicans currently hold by a mere six seats (the breakdown: 222 Republicans to 211 Democrats, with one independent voting with Republicans and one with Democrats). All 435 House seats are, of course, on the ballot in 2002, but only 30 or so are expected to be in play due to the still-ongoing redistricting process, in which House incumbents are working hard to shore up their own seats, leaving just a small pool of competitive ones. Thirty-four of the nation's 50 governorships. Overall, the GOP holds 27 governorships to Democrats' 21, with two independents. In 2002, Republicans will be defending 23 seats to Democrats' 11; both independent-held seats also will be on the ballot. A wide variety of ballot measures, including some of the colorful stand-by issues like legalizing marijuana and gay rights, outlined for you below.
Not for 50 years have the battles for control of the House and Senate been this close in the same election, and control of Congress will go a long way toward determining what kind of agenda the president can push in the second half of his term. And control of the governorships often foreshadows what will happen in individual states during the next presidential election.
Here are our latest Senate and governor race ratings for 2002:
2002 Senate Ratings
2002 Governor's Ratings
ISSUES
At this writing, the war — the whole basket of war/homeland security/defense issues — ranks highest on the public's priority list in all the national polls. We've gotten some indication that Republicans, at least today, plan to make it one of their big issues and call Democrats onto the carpet over old, pre-Sept. 11 votes or positions on military spending and anti-terrorism legislation.
Look for lots of campaign ads from both sides of the aisle featuring flags, firemen, and patriotic themes, bragging about candidates' ability to lead "now more than ever" during these "tough times" for a nation "coming together."
But we've also gotten some sense — from movement in the national polls, from political economists, from worried Republicans and wrinkled brows in the White House — that the economy is emerging as the No. 1 issue, and that people will vote their pocketbooks in November.
For this reason, congressional Republicans have been agitating for President Bush to tackle some domestic issues in January. Passage of the education compromise in December has given moderate Republicans in swing states and districts something to tout on the stump. But what of the rest of the president's domestic agenda?
Both the House and the Senate passed a patients' bill of rights, two very different versions, which went to conference and remain stuck there.
On energy, Democrats had a field day with Vice President Cheney's somewhat pro-business plan, then Republicans made hay out of Majority Leader Daschle's refusal to let the bill come to a vote in the Senate because that version, which would permit oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, seemed to have enough votes to pass.
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