Candidates Find Support in Surprising Places
Study of voters shows issues may matter more than party affiliation to some.
June 11, 2007 — -- Who's the preferred presidential pick for Republicans who say the Iraq war was a mistake?
Answer: Arizona Sen. John McCain, the war's chief defender.
Which candidate does disproportionately well among the wealthiest Democrats?
Answer: Former North Carolina senator John Edwards, the populist who's focusing on poverty and promising, among other things, to roll back tax cuts for the affluent.
A USA TODAY analysis of Americans' preferences in the 2008 presidential race -- based on more than 7,000 interviews in USA TODAY/Gallup Polls taken this year -- finds some surprising sides to the appeal of the four contenders in each party who top the polls. The study provides intriguing clues about whose messages are breaking through and what issues matter most.
It also shows that the two candidates who generally have led in nationwide surveys for the nominations -- former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani and New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton -- face opposite challenges in their bids for the White House. Their portraits of support help explain why the Republican nomination contest remains unsettled and why some Democrats fear they risk losing the White House despite a promising political climate.
Giuliani has forged a coalition that's unusual for a Republican and potentially potent in a general election. But it raises questions whether he can first survive the party's primaries and caucuses. On the other hand, Clinton's support is anchored in the Democratic base. But she shows limited appeal to the independents who decide close presidential elections.
The quandary for Giuliani, Clinton and the rest: Presidential candidates typically have to win support from more ideological partisans in the primaries, then pivot to appeal to middle-of-the-road voters in the general election. "They're completely different ballgames," says GOP pollster Whit Ayres, who isn't affiliated with a campaign.
Giuliani's support is unlike that of any Republican nominee in at least a generation. He fares better with moderates than conservatives, with more secular voters than more religious ones, and with younger people than older ones. He draws slightly more support from women than men.
